AL East offseason preview: The one big question for each team

ByABC News
November 9, 2016, 11:21 AM

— -- With free agency set to begin Tuesday, the offseason is about to get underway. What are the big questions facing all 30 teams? We're starting with the American League East.

Who will replace David Ortiz?

2016 record: 93-69

Let's be clear: No one can replace Big Papi.

Ortiz was the face of the Red Sox for most of these past 14 years, the lone link between the 2004, 2007 and 2013 World Series winners. And he delivered more than clutch hits. When something needed to be said, Ortiz usually stepped forward.

But Ortiz's production must be replaced. Third baseman Pablo Sandoval's return from shoulder surgery, a full season of young outfielder Andrew Benintendi and an eventual contribution from top prospect Yoan Moncada will help, but it's doubtful they will add up to Ortiz's farewell-season totals of 38 homers and 127 RBIs.

Conventional wisdom has the Sox paying top dollar for Edwin Encarnacion, who has averaged 39 homers, 110 RBIs and a .912 OPS per season for the Toronto Blue Jays since 2012, and he would slot in as the designated hitter. But the 34-year-old bats right-handed, and the Red Sox already lean heavily right with Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, Xander Bogaerts and Dustin Pedroia.

A potentially better free-agent fit: Carlos Beltran.

Beltran turns 40 in April. He's primarily a DH now and has leadership qualities that would fit well on a young, contending team. He's a switch-hitter with relatively similar left-right splits. And he's coming off a season in which he hit 29 homers and drove in 93 runs with an .850 OPS.

According to multiple sources, the Red Sox were interested in Beltran at the trade deadline before the New York Yankees dealt him to Texas. Beltran says he hasn't considered following Ortiz into retirement, but given his age, Beltran also isn't likely to get more than a two-year commitment.

For those reasons, Beltran's market bears watching. -- Scott Lauber

How high will the payroll climb?

2016 record: 89-73

Fact: Toronto is the fifth-largest media market in North America.

Another fact: Nearly 3.4 million fans flocked to Rogers Centre this year, marking the Blue Jays' most well-attended season since 1993.

Myth: The Jays can't afford to re-sign both Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista.

By now, after losing in the American League Championship Series in back-to-back seasons, it should be evident to ownership that the Blue Jays can compete with almost any team, on the field and financially. According to most estimates, the club's 2016 payroll was roughly $150 million, and surely there's room to grow. But that doesn't make the decisions on their free-agent sluggers any easier.

Bautista is 36 and coming off his worst season since 2009. Encarnacion will be 34 by Opening Day, and after a 42-homer season, he figures to command a four- or five-year contract worth more than $20 million annually. Multiyear deals for players in their mid-30s tend not to be good business, and Jays president Mark Shapiro knows it. But Bautista and Encarnacion rank with the most accomplished hitters in franchise history. Losing both would profoundly weaken one of the AL's mightiest lineups, to say nothing of demoralizing a fan base that has displayed renewed enthusiasm for baseball over the past two years.

There's growing belief within the industry that the Jays will push hard to keep Encarnacion while allowing Bautista to walk. -- Scott Lauber

Can the Orioles lock up Manny Machado?

2016 record: 89-73

If the Orioles stand any chance of signing Manny Machado to a long-term contract extension, now's the time. The 24-year old slugger won't come cheap, not after another standout season in which he set career highs in doubles (40), homers (37), RBIs (96) and OPS (.876). He also continued to look like one of the best fielders on the planet.

Machado's current contract is set to expire after the 2018 season. If he makes it to free agency, there's no way Baltimore wins a bidding war to retain his services -- not with deep-pocketed poachers such as the Yankees waiting in the wings. So owner Peter Angelos and GM Dan Duquette must act now if they want to keep Machado in orange and black. With only $54 million currently committed to the 2018 payroll, and just $32 million on the 2019 books, the Birds should have the kind of fiscal flexibility to get a deal done. But does Machado want to stay? No doubt the numbers will play a big part, but extending Jonathan Schoop -- who is Machado's BFF and one of the game's up-and-coming second basemen -- wouldn't be a bad idea either. -- Eddie Matz

Will the Yankees be big spenders?

2016 record: 84-78

You say, "Spend Hal's Money!" Well, the Yankees probably won't do too much of that this winter. Owner Hal Steinbrenner's plan for years: have more financial flexibility with a younger, more athletic roster. The Yankees are, finally, really making this a reality, as evidenced by their trade deadline deals as they slowly move under the luxury tax threshold.

This winter, the Yankees won't stand still -- GM Brian Cashman is always active -- but there will be no mega-splurge.

The Yankees could reunite with Aroldis Chapman or former prospect Mark Melancon to team with Dellin Betances. Neither Chapman nor Melancon would cost a draft choice, unlike? Kenley Jansen.

Meanwhile, the Yankees want to add a starter. Rich Hill once was a Yankee, and he could be a Yankee again. In 2014, the Yankees failed to recognize Hill's potential as a starter. Now, he has been dominant but injury prone. Still, a lefty at Yankee Stadium is always enticing, especially one who had a 2.12 ERA in 20 starts in 2016. -- Andrew Marchand

Where will the runs come from?

2016 record: 68-94

From 2008 to 2013, the Rays averaged 92 wins per season, second most in the majors behind the Yankees. Tampa Bay made the playoffs four times in that span. But since then, the team has suffered three straight losing seasons, bottoming out at 68-94 in 2016. The Rays bashed a franchise-record 216 home runs in 2016, but there wasn't much else to go with the power. Tampa ranked 14th in the AL in runs after ranking 14th in 2015 and 15th in 2014. So while Chris Archer and Drew Smyly?will certainly have better seasons down the road, the Rays need to improve their offense.

Last season, the Rays were last in batting average and strikeouts, 12th in walks, and Kevin Kiermaier?was their only player to steal more than seven bases. So we know they need to draw more walks and put more balls in play. Here's where reach position ranked in wOBA:

C: 27
1B: 19
2B: 14
3B: 7
SS: 7
LF: 17
CF: 22
RF: 23
DH: 14 (of 15)

Really, only third base with Evan Longoria was a position of strength. Brad Miller's poor defense at shortstop forced a move to first base late in the season, with Matt Duffy taking over in 2017. Kiermaier isn't going anywhere with his defense, so that leaves catcher, DH and the corner-outfield positions as the places for upgrade. Corey Dickerson and Steven Souza combined for 41 home runs but just 2.4 WAR last season. While the free-agent market will be flooded with DH types, the Rays are unlikely bidders for Edwin Encarnacion or Mark Trumbo. The Rays will need Dickerson and Souza to improve their approaches at the plate, strike out less and get on base at a much higher rate -- and probably hope for the best with stopgaps at catcher and DH. -- David Schoenfield