Best bets on every Week 13 NFL game

— -- It's Week 13 of the NFL season and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's day action, included together in one handy file.

Dave Tuley

Last week: 3-3 against the spread with best bets (marked with an *); 2-2 with over/under best bets; 9-0-1 ATS on picks on all other games.

Season to date: 36-31-3 (53.7 percent) on ATS best bets; 29-19 (60.4 percent) with O/U best bets; 52-50-2 on ATS leans, including Vikings 3 Thursday night; 8-6 on over/under leans.

Mike Clay

Last week: 6-6-1 on ATS best bets; 6-5 with O/U best bets.

Season: 63-49-3 (56.3 percent) on ATS best bets; 58-51 (53.2 percent) on O/U best bets.

Erin Rynning

Last week: 1-1 on ATS best bets; 1-1 on O/U best bets, 0-1 on O/U leans.

Season: 10-12 (45.5 percent) on ATS best bets; 17-15 (53.1 percent) on O/U best bets; 6-3 on ATS leans, including Vikings 3 Thursday night; 3-3 on O/U leans.

Rufus Peabody

Last week: 4-4-1 on ATS best bets; 0-3 on O/U best bets, 1-0 on ATS leans.

Season: 17-21-2 (44.7 percent) on ATS best bets, including Vikings 3 Thursday night; 8-17 (32 percent) on O/U best bets; 10-5-2 (66.7 percent) on ATS leans, 3-3 on O/U leans.

Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.

Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Opened Atlanta -4; now Atlanta -4.5
Total: Opened 49.5; now 49
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent Atlanta

Public perception: The Falcons' bandwagon continues to fill up, fueled by Matt Ryan & Co. averaging a league-leading 32.5 points per game.

Wiseguys' view: Sharps originally bet this down from Atlanta -4 to -3.5, but then watched as the public bet it right back up to 4 and now 4.5. In these cases, sharps will usually wait to see how high the public pushes the line before jumping back on the underdog.

Dave Tuley's take: The Chiefs are tempting as underdogs (2-1 SU and ATS in that role this season), but I don't see their defense shutting down the Falcons enough. The Chiefs make a lot of big plays and tighten up in the red zone, but they're only No. 28 with 381 yards per game allowed. The over looks playable with the Falcons tied for the best over record in the league at 9-2, but the Chiefs are tied for the best under team at 8-3, so I'll also call that just a lean and will probably parlay Falcons/over for half a unit.

The pick: Over 49* (lean to Atlanta -4.5)

Rufus Peabody: For some reason, Massey-Peabody rates the Chiefs as above-average, even though it looks like they've been the luckiest team imaginable. Last week, they had a punt return touchdown, converted a fourth-and-long on the final drive in regulation to keep the game alive, needed a bobble for their touchdown in the waning seconds to count, converted a two-point attempt with seconds left to tie the game, benefitted from a questionable Gary Kubiak decision to attempt a 62-yard field goal in overtime and, of course, the Cairo Santos ricochet. That's a lot of good fortune. On the season, they have the best turnover differential in the NFL. Sounds lucky, right?

Kansas City is below-average on both sides of the ball in three of the four component stats that determine the Massey-Peabody ratings: rushing, passing and play success. But they have been elite in scoring efficiency: the ability to turn yards into points on offense (and vice versa on defense), controlling for fumble luck, and, while it isn't the most important stat in the model, it does hold some weight (New England and Dallas have also been great in scoring efficiency, after all).

Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: Atlanta -3.4; Total: 49.5

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Atlanta 29, Kansas City 23
The pick: Atlanta and the over -- ATL -4, 49

Matchup: Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Opened New Orleans -5; now New Orleans -6
Total: Opened 53.5; now 53.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent Detroit

Public perception: Ladies and gentlemen, your first-place Detroit Lions! Yep, the Lions lead the NFC North and the public is backing them this week against the Saints, who usually get a lot of public support at home.

Wiseguys' view: This is a relatively rare case when the public is on the 'dog, yet the sharps are behind the favorite getting bet higher. As much as the Lions have overachieved, the Saints are 8-3 ATS, including 7-1 in their past eight games.

Dave Tuley's take: The Lions are doing it with mirrors. They're 7-4, but they've trailed in the fourth quarter of all their games. That's to their credit, but they're really closer to a .500 team. This should be a shootout, and I would prefer having Drew Brees and his weapons compared to Matthew Stafford and his.

The pick: Lean to over 53.5 (lean to New Orleans -6.5)

Rufus Peabody: I was on New Orleans when the line opened at -5, but it has since moved to -6, taking the value with it. The New Orleans' offense gets all the buzz, but the Saints' defense has quietly improved throughout the season. During the past three games, they've allowed only 4.2 yards per play (compared to 6.6 yards per play in their first eight games). While the Saints have had the fourth-toughest schedule of the season so far, Detroit has benefitted from the second easiest. Despite the easy schedule, Detroit still ranks only 13th in the NFL in offensive yards per play and 23rd in defensive yards per play. Don't be fooled by the records -- New Orleans ranks fifth in the Massey-Peabody ratings; Detroit ranks 24th.

Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: New Orleans -6.9; Total: 54.0

Mike Clay:

Prediction: New Orleans 31, Detroit 24
The pick: New Orleans and the over -- NO -6, 53.5

Matchup: Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots

Spread: Opened New England -13.5; now New England -13
Total: Opened 45; now 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 74 percent New England

Public perception: The Patriots dropped to 8-3 ATS with their non-covering 22-17 win over the Jets last week, but the public still trusts them more than the Rams (4-7 SU and 4-5-2 ATS).

Wiseguys' view: Sharps are more likely to land on the double-digit underdog, though we saw very little movement from Rams 13.5 earlier in the week, or even after Rob Gronkowski was declared out for two months (though some books did go to 13 on Wednesday).

Dave Tuley's take: I've long loved double-digit NFL underdogs, and they've been great to me, but they're only 3-5 ATS (37.5 percent this year) and 0-2 ATS in games when the Patriots were double-digit faves. Jared Goff showed some improvement last week, but that was against the Saints' defense, and I wouldn't trust him as much against Bill Belichick's game plan. So, on principle, I prefer the big underdog, but I can't pull the trigger.

The pick: Lean to Rams 13

Rufus Peabody: So far, Goff has actually been a downgrade from Case Keenum, but the quarterback change makes sense given the Rams aren't going anywhere this year and Keenum isn't in their long-term plans. Under Goff, Los Angeles has been a woeful 5-for-27 on third and fourth downs (spoiler alert: the Rams haven't been much better on first or second downs). For the Rams to keep this game competitive, Goff will need to take a big step forward. Despite the solid Rams defense (notwithstanding last week's embarrassment in New Orleans), the gap in offenses is just too large. Massey-Peabody makes New England a 15.2-point favorite, and I lean New England at a line of -13.

Pick: Lean New England -13, Under 44.5
Massey-Peabody Line: New England -15.2; Total: 42.4

Mike Clay:

Prediction: New England 27, Los Angeles 14
The pick: The under -- 44

Matchup: Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Opened Denver -5; now Denver -3.5 (EVEN)
Total: Opened 42; now 40
PickCenter public consensus pick: 84 percent Denver

Public perception: The Jaguars covered last week and the Broncos lost. But it doesn't matter, the Broncos are still much more of a public team, even with Trevor Siemian (foot) questionable for this game.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps are on the Jaguars in the face of all that public money, betting this down from Denver -5 (the opener at the Westgate before the Broncos' overtime loss to the Chiefs on Sunday night) and -4.5 at most other books.

Dave Tuley's take: I agree with the wiseguys in preferring the Jaguars and was glad to be on them last week when they covered at Buffalo after blowing the cover the previous week at Detroit. However, I have my doubts that Blake Bortles can consistently move the offense (tied for No. 23 in yards per game) against the Broncos' No. 4 defense, and there's a better-than-average chance for a Denver defensive touchdown, so I can't make this a best bet.

The pick: Lean to Jaguars 3.5

Rufus Peabody: Despite a seven-point loss to Buffalo last week, Jacksonville looked (relatively) good, and graded out two points better than the Bills. Buffalo's 6.0 yards per play is deceptive, as two plays -- a LeSean McCoy 75-yard touchdown run and a 63-yard Sammy Watkins reception -- accounted for nearly half of its offensive yards. And once again, the Jaguars did not force a turnover -- their seven takeaways and minus-15 turnover differential are worst in the NFL. Is there some predictive value to turnovers? Yes (especially interceptions), but the amount of luck embedded in turnover margin is large, so we can say that the Jags have been quite unlucky.

On the other side, Denver had many chances to win last Sunday night and all the advantages on paper -- coming off a bye week, playing at home with the thin air advantage -- and they didn't play well, plain and simple. Jacksonville is a play at 5 and a lean at 4.5.

Pick: Jacksonville 5
Massey-Peabody Line: Denver -3.1; Total: 41.5

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Denver 24, Jacksonville 19
The pick: Denver and the over -- DEN -4, 40

Matchup: Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers

Spread: Opened Green Bay -3.5; now Green Bay -6.5
Total: Opened 46.5; now 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 76 percent Green Bay

Public perception: The opening line of Green Bay -3.5 was from the Westgate on Sunday afternoon before the Packers routed the Eagles 27-13 on Monday night. It re-opened at -5.5 on Tuesday morning.

Wiseguys' view: Sharps did bet the Packers from -3.5 to -4.5 before the Monday night kickoff, so there's wiseguy support on the Packers, too, though there's sure to be some buyback if/when the line gets to 7. The Packers will also be a very popular teaser play for sharps, as well as the public.

Dave Tuley's take: The Texans threw in a clunker last week against the Chargers after suffering a tough loss to the Raiders in Mexico City the week before. Hopefully their hangover is cured, as this line has become overinflated. Houston's No. 5 defense should be able to contain the Packers' offense and keep the Texans in the game.

The pick: Texans 6.5*

Rufus Peabody: This may seem odd, but even after 12 weeks, previous seasons still have predictive value in our model. There is a difference between a middling pass offense with Jameis Winston at quarterback, and a middling pass offense with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.

The Packers have been lucky on offense this year -- they have converted 49.7 percent of third downs, third best in the league, despite ranking 15th in offensive yards per play -- but they've underperformed relative to expectation. One could try to make the same argument with Houston underperforming, except that we expected their offense to be abysmal under Brock Osweiler, and it has been. Massey-Peabody makes Green Bay an 8.6-point favorite here. The Packers were a play at -6, but the line has moved hard. They are a lean at -6.5, but not at -7.

Pick: Lean Packers -6.5
Massey-Peabody Line: Green Bay -8.6; Total: 45.9

Erin Rynning: The criticism of quarterback Brock Osweiler is justified, with the Texans' offense stuck in neutral and ranked 31st in the NFL at 4.8 yards per play. However, this matchup will give the embattled signal-caller an opportunity to quiet his many critics. The Packers' defense sits at 27th in the NFL, allowing 5.9 yards per play -- but a more troubling 7.9 yards per pass play, dead last in the NFL. The Texans possess weapons like DeAndre Hopkins and? Will Fuller?to provide issues for this Packers secondary. Obviously, this? Aaron Rodgers-led Green Bay offense has played choppy football all season. Last Monday the Packers looked on the upswing -- but even with Rodgers threading the needle, plays were made by an eyelash, which is tricky to duplicate. The Texans make this a game and get inside the number.

Play: Texans

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Green Bay 25, Houston 19
The pick: Houston and the under -- HST 6.5, 45.5

Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Opened Philadelphia -1; now Cincinnati -1
Total: Opened 41.5; now 42
PickCenter public consensus pick: 53 percent Cincinnati

Public perception: The public is split on this game, which is to be expected with it lined around pick 'em, as I've seen other bet-tracking sites saying Philadelphia is getting more support.

Wiseguys' view: When this line first opened Sunday afternoon, early sharps actually bet Philadelphia from -1 to -2.5 at the Westgate, but the change of favorites is more due to the Eagles losing on Monday night than to an influx of sharp money on Cincinnati.

Dave Tuley's take: This is truly a toss-up, with both teams pretty much playing out the string (though I suppose the Eagles can still get in wild-card contention), so in these situations I like to look to the over, as these games tend to turn into sandlot-shootout-type contests. I know both teams have played three straight unders, but I believe that has helped lower this total to a very low 42.

The pick: Over 42* (lean to Cincinnati -1)

Rufus Peabody: If you're judging Philadelphia on a yards per play basis, the Eagles haven't been good, especially recently, averaging 5.28 yards per play on offense while giving up 5.68. As predicted, Carson Wentz started throwing interceptions, but one area the Eagles have remained lucky on offense is fumble luck (they've fumbled 20 times, but recovered 15 of them). Cincinnati has struggled mightily on offense the past three weeks, averaging fewer than 5.0 yards per play in all three games. My model anticipates some regression to the mean for the offense; they are not nearly as bad as they've played lately, despite the absence of A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard.

Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: Cincinnati -1; Total: 43.6

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Philadelphia 21, Cincinnati 20
The pick: Philadelphia -- PHI 1

Matchup: Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Opened Baltimore -3.5 (EVEN); now Baltimore -3.5 (EVEN)
Total: Opened 41.5; now 40.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 58 percent Miami

Public perception: The public is on the Dolphins, and that's understandable, as they're on a six-game SU winning streak and 4-0-2 ATS during thatstretch.

Wiseguys' view: Sharps are more split on the game. The Dolphins are tempting at 3.5, but sharps also know the Ravens traditionally defend their home turf and are 4-2 SU and ATS this season, including winning three straight home games.

Dave Tuley's take: I think it's time to start fading the Dolphins. Yes, they've won six straight, but only the Steelers would be considered an elite team. The play I like better is the under.? Baltimore is 8-3 with the under, including three straight, and its No. 2 defense in yards allowed (No. 1 in rushing defense) should contain Jay Ajayi and turn this into a field position battle.

The pick: Under 40.5* (lean to Ravens -3.5)

Rufus Peabody: Despite their 6-5 record and perch atop the AFC North, the Ravens are a bad football team, ranking 22nd in the Massey-Peabody ratings. Their putrid offense showed signs of life in Weeks 10 and 11, but promptly resorted to their baseline last week against Cincinnati (despite winning the game). The Ravens have also benefited from the third-easiest schedule in the NFL so far. I show no value at all at a line of 3, but I do lean Miami if it gets to 3.5.

Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: Baltimore -2.2; Total: 42.2

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Baltimore 21, Miami 18
The pick: Miami -- MIA 3.5

Matchup: San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears

Spread: Opened Chicago -3 (-120); now Chicago -1
Total: Opened 43.5; now 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent San Francisco

Public perception: The public is siding with the 49ers (kind of a "lesser of two evils" type of situation).

Wiseguys' view: The drop in this line has also been driven by Chicago's change in QB, as bookmakers have monitored Jay Cutler's status and he was placed on IR Wednesday.

Dave Tuley's take: Which Bears team will show up? The one that was outplayed by the Titans for three quarters, or the one? Matt Barkley rallied to a backdoor cover and nearly pulled off the upset? I'll count on the former. ESPN fantasy guru Matthew Berry points out Rodgers is the only player outscoring Colin Kaepernick over the past four weeks. Kaepernick should have a field day against a depleted Chicago defense.

The pick: 49ers 1*

Rufus Peabody: With Matt Barkley starting in place of Jay Cutler, the Bears are still a one-point favorite. Barkley is a major downgrade and my line (SF -2) reflects that. Colin Kaepernick has quietly been quite good for the Niners recently. Since the bye week, the San Francisco offense has averaged 6.1 yards per play (compared to 4.6 yards per play under Blaine Gabbert). Their schedule hasn't been easy, as San Francisco has faced the toughest schedule in the NFL this season by a mile. In fact, if they had played Tennessee's schedule -- the easiest in the league -- they would be expected to have 1.5 more wins. San Francisco is a play at 1, and a lean at pick.

Pick: San Francisco 1, Lean Under 43.5
Massey-Peabody Line: San Francisco -2.0; Total: 41.5

Mike Clay:

Prediction: San Francisco 22, Chicago 22
The pick: San Francisco -- SF 1

Matchup: Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders

Spread: Opened Oakland -3.5; now Oakland -3 (-120)
Total: Opened 49.5; now 49
PickCenter public consensus pick: 76 percent Oakland

Public perception: The Raiders continue to be a huge public team, even though they dipped to 7-4 ATS as they failed to cover as 3.5-point home favorites over the Panthers last week (but the cheers were just as loud for Oakland in the Westgate SuperBook).

Wiseguys' view: This line has mostly wavered between -3/-3.5 all week, but sharps have mostly taken away the 3.5s.

Dave Tuley's take: I wanted to take the Bills this week but didn't want to pay the -120 vig at 3.5, and now the value is gone. I do believe LeSean McCoy will have a big day and help the Bills match the Raiders score-for-score.? I'm actually stunned that this over/under isn't much higher, as the Raiders are 9-2 with the over (including five straight) and the Bills are 8-3.

The pick: Over 49* ( lean to Bills 3)

Rufus Peabody: Oakland is 9-2 and has outscored its opponents by 32 points on the year; Buffalo is 6-5 despite outscoring its opponents by 45. Oakland has been carried by an offense that has been very good, due to a career year from third-year starter Derek Carr. Is Carr for real? Most people think so, and think he'll continue to improve, but I don't think we can say with certainty. He has two seasons of below-average play on his resume, and just over half a season of very good play. Kirk Cousins had a great run at the end of last season, yet the Redskins reserved judgment. I'm doing the same thing with Carr. Buffalo should take advantage of a defense that ranks last in the NFL in yards per play allowed.

Pick: Buffalo 3
Massey-Peabody Line: Oakland -0.7; Total: 46.2

Erin Rynning: I was skeptical of the Bills to start the campaign, and after their 0-2 start, the questioning was warranted. However, give credit to this bunch now winning six of their past nine games, with their best perhaps in front of them. The return of Sammy Watkins is a huge boost for the offense -- a true weapon in the pass game who takes pressure off the running game. Meanwhile, the defense currently ranks 11th in the NFL, allowing 5.4 yards per play. Still, this unit should ascend down the stretch with a plethora of talent and the recent return of? Marcell Dareus. He is a difference-maker who appeared to finally find some rhythm last week. Give the Raiders credit for their 9-2 start, certainly, but the Bills are actually stronger in point differential. The injury to Derek Carr's hand and the fourth-ranked passing offense is at least a small concern in this matchup Sunday. Play the Bills plus the points and lean under.

Play: Bills and lean under

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Oakland 27, Buffalo 27
The pick: Buffalo and the over -- BUF 3, 49

Matchup: New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Opened Pittsburgh -6; now Pittsburgh -6.5
Total: Opened 50; now 48
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent New York

Public perception: The public is siding more with the Giants, as they're just as much of a playoff contender as the Steelers (who have covered two straight), but the public probably hasn't forgiven them yet for a couple letdowns earlier in the season.

Wiseguys' view: Sharps are mostly split on this game, though they have pushed the Westgate line to -6.5, while most books were still sitting at 6 on Wednesday afternoon despite most of the bets coming in on the Giants.

Dave Tuley's take: I agree with the public that this line seems a little high. However, I'm not going to fade the Steelers, as they have seemed to be back on track (and I don't fault them for their 35-30 loss to the Cowboys in their last setback). I'm tempted to go over 48, as this has all the looks of a shootout with Ben Roethlisberger/ Antonio Brown vs. Eli Manning/ Odell Beckham Jr., but both teams are actually 8-3 with the under, so I'll pass.

The pick: L ean to Steelers -6.5

Rufus Peabody: Pittsburgh makes a big jump in this week's Massey-Peabody ratings -- rising from ninth to fourth -- after the best performance of Week 12. The Steelers' Week 12 opponent (Indianapolis) was without quarterback Andrew Luck, but he does not play defense, and Roethlisberger shredded the Indianapolis defense to the tune of 10.5 yards per pass play. Pittsburgh's defense has done a good job of shutting down the poor offenses it has faced this year, and it faces another one this week. The Giants, whose 8-3 record is largely a mirage, have the 24th-rated offense in the NFL according to the Massey-Peabody ratings. The Giants have been carried by a defense that has far exceeded expectations, and should help keep this game under the total of 49.

Pick: Under 49
Massey-Peabody Line: Pittsburgh -6.3; Total: 44.6

Erin Rynning: The Steelers' defense has allowed just 16 points in their past two games, with whispers of the Steel Curtain defense. However, a closer inspection shows they clamped down on the despicable Browns offense in brutal weather and stopped the Colts with Scott Tolzien at quarterback and numerous dropped passes. Look for the unit to resemble its No. 22 ranking in yards per play this week with the loss of Cameron Heyward showing. Keep in mind, the Steelers' talented offense wanted to average 30 points per game this season. They've taken their foot off the gas pedal the past two weeks while Roethlisberger has returned to health. They'll need the firepower in this contest, as mentioned above, with Manning and the Giants' passing game expected to come to life.

Play: Over

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Pittsburgh 25, New York Giants 19
The pick: New York Giants and the under -- NYG 6.5, 48

Matchup: Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Opened Arizona -2.5; now Arizona -2
Total: Opened 49.5; now 49
PickCenter public consensus pick: 70 percent Washington

Public perception: The public is all over the Redskins -- and even higher at other bet-tracking sites -- especially as the wheels have come off in Arizona? (4-6-1 SU and 3-8 ATS) with five straight non-covers and 1-3 SU since the 6-6 tie against Seattle.

Wiseguys' view: Sharps are mostly split on this game, though they'll join the public on teasers with the Redskins (taking them up over a touchdown).

Dave Tuley's take: I can't explain the Cardinals' slump, either, and still feel they're the better team overall (and the NFL Vegas Rankings we're part of here at Chalk has them as a value play, as we think this line should be at least a field goal).

The pick: Lean to Cardinals -2

Rufus Peabody: Arizona's playoff hopes appear bleak (6 percent according to Massey-Peabody's simulations), but that doesn't mean the Cardinals are a bad team. Their defense has allowed the fewest yards per play of any team in the league, and despite their loss in Atlanta last week, they held Atlanta's potent offense to its worst showing of the year (in yards per play).The market still believes in Arizona as well, though, so I don't show any value.

Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: Arizona -2.8; Total: 49.9

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Arizona 24, Washington 23
The pick: Washington and the under -- WAS 2.5, 49

Matchup: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Diego Chargers

Spread: Opened San Diego -5.5; now San Diego -4
Total: Opened 47.5; now 47.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent Tampa Bay

Public perception: The public is on the Buccaneers, as they've pulled three straight upsets of the Bears (no big deal), Chiefs (big deal) and Seahawks (very big deal). The Chargers are 7-4 ATS this season, but most bettors still aren't sure they can trust them in close games.

Wiseguys' view: Sharps have slowly been betting down this line since Sunday night. It was down to 3.5, but that's where we saw some sharp buyback on the Chargers.

Dave Tuley's take: Here's yet another public underdog (eight of Sunday's 12 day games), but I do like this one. The Buccaneers are led by the combo of Jameis Winston and Mike Evans, but the defense (still No. 24 in yards allowed per game) has stepped up in recent weeks This should be yet another close game for the Chargers, and the points could come into play.

The pick: Buccaneers 4*

Rufus Peabody: This is an interesting matchup, in that it pits one team that has played far better than its record indicates (San Diego) against a team that has played far worse than its record (Tampa Bay). Tampa's defense ranks 26th in yards per play allowed and 27th in play success allowed on early downs, yet is first in the league in play success allowed on third and fourth down. Opponents have only converted 44-of-129 third-down opportunities against the porous Buccaneers defense. Those stats don't tell a coherent picture; the reality is that Tampa has been fortunate to have played its best in higher leverage situations, a run of good fortune that I do not expect to continue.

Play: Lean San Diego -3.5
Massey-Peabody Line: San Diego -5.9; Total: 47.2

Mike Clay:

Prediction: San Diego 27, Tampa Bay 23
The pick: Tampa Bay and the over --- TB 3.5, 47.5