Best bets on Week 15 NFL games
— -- It's Week 15 of the NFL season and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of the weekend's action, included together in one handy file.
Dave Tuley
Last week: 5-2 against the spread with best bets (marked with an *); 2-2 with over/under best bets; 6-3 on ATS leans; 0-2 on O/U leans.
Season to date: 42-37-3 (53.2 percent) on ATS best bets, including a loss on the Rams 16 on Thursday night; 34-24 (58.6 percent) with O/U best bets; 62-60-2 on ATS leans; 10-11 on over/under leans.
Mike Clay
Last week: 6-7-1 on ATS best bets; 5-6 with O/U best bets; 1-0 on ATS leans.
Season: 71-67-5 (51.4 percent) on ATS best bets; 70-61 (53.4 percent) on O/U best bets; 1-0 on ATS leans.
Erin Rynning
Last week: 1-1 on ATS best bets; 2-0 on O/U best bets.
Season: 11-16 (40.7 percent) on ATS best bets; 19-17 (52.8 percent) on O/U best bets; 7-3 on ATS leans; 3-3 on O/U leans.
Rufus Peabody
Last week: 3-3 on ATS best bets; 4-0 on O/U best bets, 1-1 on ATS leans.; 0-1 on O/U leans
Season: 21-30-2 (41.2 percent) on ATS best bets, including Rams 16 on Thursday night; 13-18 (41.9 percent) on O/U best bets; 12-7-2 (63.2 percent) on ATS leans, 4-4 on O/U leans.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Matchup: Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Spread: Opened Green Bay -4; now Green Bay -5.5
Total: Opened 42.5; now 39.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 84 percent Green Bay
Public perception: The Packers are almost always going to be a more popular public team than the Bears, but throw in a 38-10 rout of the Seahawks, and the bandwagon fills up even more.
Wiseguys' view: There are plenty of sharps joining with the public in steaming this line all the way up to Green Bay -7 at some books, but that's where we saw the sharps who prefer the Bears this week jumping in and betting it back down.
Dave Tuley's take: The Packers have put together a nice three-game winning streak, but the Bears have covered four in a row. They've been more competitive than I ever expected with Matt Barkley at quarterback, but the defense has quietly improved to No. 7 in yards allowed per game (326.5) and has the chance to make the Packers one-dimensional. Aaron Rodgers can certainly overcome that, and if the Packers play their best, they'll win in a rout, but I'm banking on the Bears trying to continue with a strong finish to their season, and their chances also improve with Alshon Jeffery returning from a suspension for violating the NFL's performance-enhancing drug policy.
The pick: Bears 5.5*
Rufus Peabody:
Chicago hosts Green Bay in a game when temperatures are expected to be below zero degrees. Not good news for Rodgers' injured hamstring, nor for fans who want to see points. While temperature doesn't normally have a big impact on scoring, at extremely low temperatures, it has significantly depressed offensive performance (although the sample size is fairly small).
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: Green Bay -6.6; Total: 37.6
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Green Bay 24, Chicago 17
The pick: Green Bay and the over -- GB -5.5, 39.5
Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Spread: Opened Houston -5; now Houston -5
Total: Opened 39.5; now 39.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 75 percent Houston
Public perception: The public is overwhelmingly on the Texans, as they're trying to win their second straight AFC South title, while the Jaguars (2-11 straight up and 4-8-1 ATS) don't give people many reasons to back them.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps joined with the public in backing Houston early, as this line climbed up to -6, but then just as many sharps were happy to grab the Jaguars and bet it back down to 5 on Thursday afternoon.
Dave Tuley's take: Like the Browns, I backed off on trusting the Jaguars, and it's been better for my bankroll the second half of this season. They've failed to cover their past three, while the Texans stepped up big time in winning at Indianapolis last week. If anything, I think this line is a little short. Houston has played three straight unders, and that's the way I would look here, but with the total below 40 points, I'll pass there, too.
The pick: Lean to under 39.5 (l ean to Houston -5)
Rufus Peabody:
Houston is 7-6 and has control of its own division fate (thanks to a blemish-free divisional record, it holds all tiebreakers), but the Texans are a bad football team. Massey-Peabody rates them the 25th-best team in football. Side note: They do have some company, as the teams directly above them are Tampa Bay, Detroit, Indianapolis and Oakland, which -- with the exception of Indianapolis -- all are leading or are tied for the lead in their respective divisions. I know the Texans and Jaguars have no offense, but a total of 39 in a climate-controlled building is too low in today's NFL.
Pick: Lean over 39
Massey-Peabody Line: Houston -4.2; Total: 41.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Houston 21, Jacksonville 17
The pick: Jacksonville and the under -- JAX 6, 39.5
Matchup: Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills
Spread: Opened Buffalo -10; now Buffalo -10
Total: Opened 42.5; now 41.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent Buffalo
Public perception: Let's be clear here: The public isn't overwhelmingly on the Bills -- they're overwhelmingly fading the Browns (0-13 SU and 2-11 ATS) no matter how high the oddsmakers set the line.
Wiseguys' view: Our ESPN Chalk colleague David Purdum had a piece earlier this week about the wiseguys losing on Cleveland repeatedly this season, and they'll be on the Browns again here as a double-digit 'dog to try to recoup some of those losses.
Dave Tuley's take:?I'm glad I put a personal moratorium on taking the Browns earlier this year as it's saved me money in their current 7-game non-cover streak, but I'm ready to jump back in on them (and hopefully at the right time). This is more of a bet against the Bills being favored by this many points. Double-digit 'dogs are underperforming at 3-7 ATS this season after the Rams ( 16) lost 24-3 to the Seahawks on Thursday night, but I expect them to turn it around down the stretch. The Bills have failed to cover their last three games, with their only SU win in that stretch being a non-covering win over the Jaguars as 8.5-point faves. We're just counting on Robert Griffin III to have shaken off some of the rust after returning last week.
The pick: Browns 10*
Rufus Peabody:
Cleveland has only three chances left to get a win to avoid being only the second team in NFL history to go 0-16. It probably won't be this week, as the Browns visit Buffalo, a team that's been underrated in the Massey-Peabody index all season. The Bills put up a huge clunker last week at home against Pittsburgh, despite winning the turnover battle, but they were still better than Cleveland last week, grading out four points better. Despite the expected weather and wind, I think this total is priced too low. While the Bills have been involved in a bunch of shootouts, the Browns have played more low-scoring affairs, but with RG III at quarterback, the Massey-Peabody model expects the Browns' offense to improve.?
Pick: Over 41
Massey-Peabody Line: Buffalo -11.6; Total: 44.7
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Buffalo 31, Cleveland 18
The pick: Buffalo and the over -- BUF -10, 41.5
I think this is a sneaky game to take the over this weekend. Tyrod Taylor has been shredded in the media as of late, but his offense ranks eighth in touchdowns per game (2.9). The Browns' defense, meanwhile, is surrendering 3.4 touchdowns and 5.1 scoring opportunities (touchdowns plus field goal attempts) per game this season; both are second highest in the league. Cleveland struggles to score (28th in offensive touchdowns), but Buffalo's defense is allowing 2.5 touchdowns per game (10th most). That includes three-plus touchdowns allowed during six of Buffalo's past seven games.
Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: Opened Baltimore -6; now Baltimore -5.5
Total: Opened 41.5; now 40.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 73 percent Baltimore
Public perception: The public is on the Ravens, who are in the playoff hunt despite their loss at New England on Monday night. But this is just as much about bettors abandoning the Eagles, who have lost eight of their past 10 games after their surprising 3-0 start and have failed to cover four straight games.
Wiseguys' view: There's been some sharp money on Philadelphia in the face of all those bets on Baltimore, but it's mostly split.
Dave Tuley's take: The Eagles are a shadow of the team we thought they might be at the start of the season, so it's hard to take them at anything less than a touchdown here. I was hoping to take a shot on the under, as the Ravens allow just 18.2 points per game (and it's even better at home at 13.1 per game), but Joe Flacco and the Baltimore offense have picked it up with 38 and 23 points the past two weeks and two overs, so I'll pass with the under down to 40.5.
The pick: Lean to Baltimore -5.5
Rufus Peabody:
Philadelphia has lost six of its past seven, but consider the context: The Eagles have faced the toughest schedule in the NFL this season. Baltimore, on the other hand, has had the fifth-easiest schedule. Philadelphia has given up a staggering 60 plays of 20-plus yards on the year, a number not commensurate with its defense's performance in other metrics (play success, for example). There is more noise in "chunk" plays, so I tend to think Philly's tendency to give up big plays will be less pronounced going forward.
Pick: Philadelphia 5.5
Massey-Peabody Line: Philadelphia 2.3; Total: 40.8
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Baltimore 23, Philadelphia 17
The pick: Baltimore and the under -- BAL -5.5, 40.5
Matchup: Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Opened Kansas City -6; now Kansas City -5.5
Total: Opened 42.5; now 42
PickCenter public consensus pick: 59 percent Kansas City
Public perception: The Chiefs continue to rack up the wins (10-3 and atop the strong AFC West), and the public still isn't sure whether to buy into the Titans' moderate success (7-6 but tied for first in the weak AFC South).
Wiseguys' view: The sharps are siding with the Titans, snatching all of the 6 lines that were available here in Vegas and offshore. It's more split now.
Dave Tuley's take: Back in our midseason takeaways column here at Chalk, I recommended fading the Chiefs as favorites moving forward, and this is exactly the type of game I meant. The Chiefs have overachieved this season and benefited from turnovers and defensive and special-team scores. That's to their credit, but they're not the type of team to win in blowouts -- they grind out wins. We're getting points here with a Titans team that has just as good of a running game with DeMarco Murray and a quarterback in Marcus Mariota whose strength has been taking care of the ball. This looks like it comes down to a field goal, and I'll gladly take the points.
The pick: Titans 5.5*
Rufus Peabody:
The Chiefs get a 10-day break after an emotional win over the Raiders that vaulted them to the top of the AFC West (and into the No. 2 seed in the AFC). Will we get a letdown game? I don't think so, given how much is on the line. The 10-degree weather should play into their hands as well, given the difference in climates between Kansas City and Nashville. Expect a lot of running, and not a ton of points.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: Kansas City -5.4; Total: 41.4
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Tennessee 22, Kansas City 20
The pick: Tennessee and the over -- TEN 5.5, 42
I like the Titans to pull off the upset at Arrowhead Stadium this week. The Chiefs are a quality team and sit at 10-3, but it can't be ignored that they've benefited from a fairly light schedule, especially at home (SD, NYA, NO, JAX, TB, OAK). The Titans' offense also has benefited from an "easy" slate, but it can't be ignored that it has averaged 3.0 touchdowns per game this season (fifth most). The Chiefs' defense has been better than average (but not by much) in terms of touchdowns allowed (2.2 per game) and just lost standout inside linebacker Derrick Johnson for the season. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are averaging a disappointing 1.9 offensive touchdowns per game (24th) and will face off with a Titans defense that has taken a step backward as of late but still sits near league average in points allowed.
Matchup: Detroit Lions at New York Giants
Spread: Opened New York -5.5; now New York -4
Total: Opened 43; now 41
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent Detroit
Public perception: The public is on the Lions, which makes sense, as they're getting points and all but one of their games have been close in the fourth quarter -- plus, they've been good to backers as underdogs at 5-2 ATS.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps also jumped on the Lions, though the openers at most books were 4.5, as opposed to the 5.5 at the Westgate. Still, sharps bet it down to 4 and it's more split now.
Dave Tuley's take: Both teams are playing well, and while I'm tempted to take the Lions plus the points, I also respect what the Giants did in sweeping the Cowboys. Early weather reports of light rain and winds have contributed to this total being lowered to 41, but I don't think it's been adjusted enough, as both teams are also 9-4 with the under. I expect we'll see a close game like we saw with the Giants' 10-7 win over the Cowboys last Sunday night. The Lions have had seven unders in a row.
The pick: Under 41* (lean to Detroit 4)
Rufus Peabody:
The Giants host the Lions in a matchup of two likely playoff teams. In fact, this very well could be a preview of a playoff matchup to come (though the home team would be different). Both teams are a lot better than their records, but as they're matched up against each other, there is no value on either side.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: Giants -4.1; Total: 42.0
Erin Rynning:
The Giants enter this contest coming off a huge win last Sunday night in their divisional upset over the Cowboys. They were more than a 3-point underdog in that game, while they're now favored by over a field goal. Their offense continues to struggle, ranking 31st in rushing. The void in the running game should be crucial in this matchup with questionable weather conditions. Of course, the Lions feature their own issues with the running game, although it's more potent than the Giants. Give credit to the Giants' highly-ranked defense, but the loss of Jason Pierre-Paul eventually will catch up to the unit. The value and situation reside with the Lions on Sunday.
Play: Lions
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Detroit 21, New York Giants 19
The pick: Detroit and the under -- DET 4, 41
Matchup: Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Opened Minnesota -4; now Minnesota -4
Total: Opened 44.5; now 45.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 54 percent Indianapolis
Public perception: The public is mostly split on this game, with each team leading on different bet-tracking sites. Both teams are trying to keep their dwindling playoff hopes alive.
Wiseguys' view: The line has wavered a little between -4 and -4.5, with sharps grabbing the best number they can get on the side they like.
Dave Tuley's take: Adrian Peterson? announced he's returning this week, but how much he'll actually play is in doubt. Still, the Vikings, who are 8-5 with the under, should do what they do (short passing game with Sam Bradford and running when necessary) and rely on their No. 2 defense in yards (304.3 allowed per game) and No. 1 defense in scoring (17.3 points per game). Andrew Luck certainly prefers more of a shootout, but he got sucked into a defensive battle by the Houston defense last week and the Vikings' defense is better. Besides, Minnesota's offense (No. 31 in yards per game and scoring only 19.8 points per game) isn't good enough to take advantage of Indy's No. 29 defense. With this total in the mid-40s, I think that's a bargain.
The pick: Under 45.5* (lean to Vikings -4)
Rufus Peabody:
While Minnesota is a below-average offensive team and a very good defensive team, I still think the total of 45.5 is too low here. Indianapolis has reverse splits, with an above-average offense and bad defense. Indianapolis is also a very pass-heavy team that runs a lot of plays -- two metrics that are favorable to scoring. Finally, the game will be played in pristine conditions, as the roof will be closed.
Pick: Over 45.5
Massey-Peabody Line: Minnesota -6.0; Total: 48.4
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Indianapolis 22.3, Minnesota 21.9
The pick: Indianapolis and the under -- IND 4.5, 45.5
Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Opened Pittsburgh -3; now Pittsburgh -3 (-120)
Total: Opened 44; now 44
PickCenter public consensus pick: 78 percent Pittsburgh
Public perception: The Steelers -- with the big three of Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown -- are among the league's biggest public teams these days, and they've rewarded backers lately with four straight covers and 8-5 ATS on the season. The Bengals have underperformed at 5-7-1 SU and 4-8-1 ATS despite two straight covers.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps are pretty split this game, with those on Pittsburgh preferring to lay just -3, while those on Cincinnati take the 3.5s that keep popping up.
Dave Tuley's take: Put me with the sharps on the Bengals. Granted, their past two wins are against the reeling Eagles and the winless Browns, but they're still giving the effort and can play spoilers the rest of the season. And they may get A.J. Green back this week. I'm a big fan of Pittsburgh, but the Steelers often don't take their show on the road very well, losing this year at Philadelphia, Miami and Baltimore. Get the hook ( 3.5) if you can.
The pick: Bengals 3*, but shop for 3.5, if you don't already have it.
Rufus Peabody:
I like the Bengals to cover the spread of 3 here, and that's despite Massey-Peabody ranking the Steelers as the third-best team in football. How is that possible? We rate Cincinnati as the No. 8 team in the NFL. Crazy? Well, this is the year of parity, so all that separates the Bengals from the No. 23 team is 3 points. I'm in the business of predicting future performance, not explaining past performance, and my numbers think the Bengals have underachieved to their talent level this season.
Pick: Cincinnati 3/ 3.5
Massey-Peabody Line: Pittsburgh -0.4; Total: 43.0
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Cincinnati 22
The pick: Cincinnati and the over -- CIN 3, 44
Matchup: New Orleans at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: Opened Arizona -2.5; now Arizona -3 (EVEN)
Total: Opened 50; now 50.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 67 percent Arizona
Public perception: With the Cardinals having such a disappointing season (5-7-1 SU and 4-9 ATS), it's surprising to see the public on them this much, though the public doesn't usually trust Drew Brees and the Saints as much away from home.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps are split on this game, as they led off the early betting on Arizona -2.5, but now there are more coming back on New Orleans at 3.
Dave Tuley's take: It's tempting to take the Saints plus the points here, as they've actually done well for backers this year (8-5 ATS), but this looks like a coin flip to me. However, I do believe it'll be a shootout, as David Johnson and the rest of the Cardinals should run wild on the Saints' porous defense. And even though Arizona is technically No. 1 in total defense with just 298.5 yards allowed, they've been lit up lately, and Brees should come out of his touchdown slump.
The pick: Over 50.5* (lean to Saints 3)
Rufus Peabody:
Arizona and New Orleans are both mathematically alive for a playoff spot, but they might as well just go play the PowerBall. Though both teams are substantially above average in the Massey-Peabody ratings (remember, our ratings are predictive, not explanatory), this game doesn't hold much appeal from a relevance standpoint, but it should be entertaining if you like scoring.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: Arizona -2.3; Total: 51.0
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Arizona 27, New Orleans 25
The pick: New Orleans and the over -- NO 2.5, 50.5
Matchup: San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: Opened Atlanta -11.5; now Atlanta -13.5
Total: Opened 51; now 51.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 85 percent Atlanta
Public perception: The Falcons continue to pick up support with their high-flying offense (league-leading 32.9 points per game) and rewarding backers at 8-5 ATS (and 11-2 with the over!), while the 49ers have lost 12 straight games and are just 2-10-1 ATS.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps jumped on Atlanta at the few books that opened lower than -13 and have helped push the line to -14 at some books. Some sharps will eventually jump in on the 49ers on principle.
Dave Tuley's take: I won't be among those jumping in on the 49ers here. They've let me down too much, plus they don't travel well, and the Falcons are even more dangerous at home. But I do like the over, even though it's set high. As stated above, the Falcons are 11-2 with the over, and the books haven't been able to adjust to catch up. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has shown flashes of figuring out Chip Kelly's offense, so I expect the 49ers to put up some points to help, but even if they don't, the Falcons might go over this number by themselves.
The pick: Over 51.5* (lean to Falcons -13.5)
Rufus Peabody:
Despite a blowout win over Los Angeles last week, the Falcons' performance didn't even crack the top five in terms of game grades. Washington, Pittsburgh, New England and Minnesota all played better despite winning by single digits. Atlanta was extremely fortunate on the turnover front, benefiting from Jared Goff's inexperience and turning over Los Angeles five times. Atlanta fits the same mold as Washington and New Orleans -- elite offense, bad defense -- but I think people perceive them as a cut above the Redskins and Saints. The reality is that less than a point separates the three teams.
Pick: San Francisco 14
Massey-Peabody Line: San Francisco 11.5; Total: 50.2
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Atlanta 39, San Francisco 22
The pick: Atlanta and the over -- ATL -13.5, 51.5
The Falcons are averaging 3.5 offensive touchdowns (first) and 2.2 field goal attempts (ninth) per game this season. The Atlanta offense has posted three or more touchdowns during nine of its 13 outings this season and has failed to reach the two-score mark in only one game (at Philadelphia). This week, the red-hot Falcons will face off with the league's worst-performing defense in the comforts of the Georgia Dome. If we combine touchdowns and field goal attempts, the Niners have allowed four-plus scoring opportunities in 12 consecutive games, including five-plus in all but one of those outings. It adds up to an NFL-worst weekly average of 5.5. The 49ers are quietly near the middle of the league in offensive touchdowns per game (2.2) and the Falcons' defense has surrendered the third-most touchdowns per game (3.0). The 49ers allow a league-high 70 offensive plays, and the Falcons sit seventh (66), which will allow additional scoring opportunities for both squads. The Falcons have a powerhouse offense, but their weak defense should allow the 49ers to keep the game close enough to make this the week's highest-scoring game.
Matchup: New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Spread: Opened New England -3 (-120); now New England -3 (-120)
Total: Opened 44; now 44
PickCenter public consensus pick: 84 percent New England
Public perception: The public loves the Patriots, and with good reason, as they're now atop the NFL ATS standings at 10-3. The Broncos are still 8-5 ATS, but they've failed to cover two of their last three (and three of their last five), and most people see them falling from grace.
Wiseguys' view: This line has hardly budged all week, so there's been some sharp resistance on Denver 3 to keep more books from moving to 3.5 (and the Broncos are certainly the preferred sharp side at 3.5).
Dave Tuley's take: The Broncos would be tempting as home underdogs, but their offense is just struggling too much to trust them to keep up with Tom Brady & Co. But Denver still plays solid defense (No. 3 in yards per game), so it should help keep this game relatively low scoring. The Patriots have shown they can be content to grind out wins. That hasn't resulted in many non-covers, but they are 8-5 with the under and are comfortable winning that way.
The pick: Under 44* ( lean to Patriots -3)
Rufus Peabody:
I've been saying all season that Denver's offense isn't just "meh" -- it's bad. There's only so much a defense can do to win games if the offense can't score. Denver rates as only the 15th-best team in the Massey-Peabody ratings despite having the best defense in football. Quarterback is the most important position in football -- the Broncos have plenty of talent around Trevor Siemian, but he simply can't get it done.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: New England -5.1; Total: 43.4
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New England 24, Denver 23
The pick: Denver and the over -- DEN 3, 44
Matchup: Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers
Spread: Opened Oakland -2.5; now Oakland -3 (EVEN)
Total: Opened 50; now 49.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 80 percent Oakland
Public perception: The public has fallen in love with the Raiders this season, and that hasn't slowed down with their 21-13 loss to the Chiefs a week ago Thursday.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps are split on this game, with some helping the public push this line from Oakland -2.5 to -3, while others are happy to get 3 with San Diego (though there would probably be more on the Chargers if Melvin Gordon wasn't expected to miss this game).
Dave Tuley's take: The Raiders are having a great season, but their Achilles' heel continues to be a defense that is only No. 30, allowing 384.5 yards per game. That plays right into the hands of the Chargers, who are No. 11 in offense and played the Raiders to a 34-31 loss in their first meeting this season (covering as 3.5-point underdogs). And now they get them at home. The Gordon injury hurts, but Kenneth Farrow filled in just fine last week with 55 yards (and he's probably available on your fantasy waiver wire), so I expect the Chargers' offense to be just fine in another likely shootout.
The pick: Chargers 3* (lean to Over 49.5)
Rufus Peabody:
The Raiders are 10-3. I think this fact goes to show just how odd this NFL season has been, as the Chargers are actually a better football team than the Raiders. Statistically, it's quite a simple argument: The Chargers have more yards per rush, yards per pass, and higher play success rate than their opponents; the Raiders have fewer yards per rush, yards per pass and a lower play success rate than their opponents. Why the five-game difference in records? Turnovers and performance in close games. The Raiders are an NFL-best plus-15 in turnover margin this season, while the Chargers are minus-5. I love the Chargers in this spot.
Pick: San Diego 2.5; Under 49.5
Massey-Peabody Line: San Diego -2.4; Total: 46.1
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Oakland 28, San Diego 26
The pick: San Diego and the over -- SD 3, 49.5
