How to bet the 2015 NBA Finals
— -- After a full week of waiting, the NBA Finals that everyone wanted to see has arrived, with the Golden State Warriors taking on the Cleveland Cavaliers (aka the Cleveland LeBrons). This season's No. 1 team against the top player on the planet.
As we pointed out in the NBA conference finals betting guide, form has pretty much held during the postseason, with favorites advancing in 12 of 14 series, including sweeps of the past two rounds. The Warriors were minus-1000 favorites over the Houston Rockets in the Western Conference finals, while the Cavaliers were minus-215 over the Atlanta Hawks despite not having home-court advantage (and they showed they didn't need it, winning both games in Atlanta on the way to a sweep).
But as we also pointed out two weeks ago, while favorites continue to win series after series, underdogs have been successful on a game-to-game basis. That continued in the conference finals as underdogs incredibly covered the first seven games (note: Cleveland was a road underdog in Games 1 and 2 at Atlanta, and Golden State was a road 'dog at Houston in Game 3) before the Cavs and Warriors both covered as favorites in their series clinchers. Still, underdogs were 7-2 ATS in the conference finals and are 41-33-1 (55.4 percent) ATS overall in the playoffs. Unders are also 41-33-1 (55.4 percent) after going 6-3 in the conference finals.
Let's take a look at where the betting value lies in this marquee matchup, along with my ESPN Chalk colleague Erin Rynning, as we land on opposite sides in this series.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors
Series price: Warriors minus-220/Cavaliers plus-190
Game 1 lines: Warriors minus-6; over/under 202.5
PickCenter Intel
Dave Tuley: Yes, I hear all the talk about how the Warriors' stats put them among the all-time great NBA teams, and I continue to be impressed by them. In most sports, I'll go with the "team" over the "star player," but that's not the case when it comes to the NBA. This is the sport that can be most dominated by a single player, and while Stephen Curry is a superstar in his own right, I have to look to LeBron James as the pivotal player in this series and the one most likely to take control and carry his team to victory.
When going over the matchup this past week, I keep going back to their regular-season meetings. Yes, they split, with each team winning at home, but James (and Iman Shumpert, another key defender) did not play in the Warriors' 112-94 win Jan. 9. That was in the midst of the Cavaliers' six-game losing streak in which James played only one game. When they met again on Feb. 26 in Cleveland, the whole world was watching as James was back in the lineup against the newly anointed No. 1 team, and all he did was score 42 points to lead the Cavs to a convincing 110-99 victory. In fact, amid all the talk of how the Warriors have been more consistent during the course of the season, since Jan. 13 (when it's considered that James had recovered from his multiple injuries), the Warriors are 38-10 while the Cavaliers are 34-10, so the gap isn't that big.
So that's why I see value in Cleveland, though some has been taken away the past week after it opened in the plus-230 range. Still, those six points in Game 1 look too good to pass up and I'll likely be on the Cavaliers getting similar points on the road throughout the series. Most people know that the Cavaliers are 12-2 SU in the playoffs while the Warriors are 12-3 SU, but the Cavs are 8-6 ATS while the Warriors are 7-8 ATS. It gets even better for the Cavaliers on the road, as they're 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS while the Warriors are 7-1 SU but just 3-5 ATS. The Warriors haven't been as dominant on their home court as most people assume.
As for over/unders, that's where I've made most of my money during the playoffs, especially with these two teams. In the NBA playoff betting guide we put out before the postseason started, I wrote about how bettors love to bet the overs in both of these teams' games and that the oddsmakers jack up their totals. The unders are 12-3 (80 percent) in the Warriors' playoffs games, including an incredible 8-0 at home. The Cavaliers are 8-5-1 (61.5 percent) with the under but are also undefeated at 6-0-1 in road games.
ESPN Chalk picks: Cleveland plus-6 in Game 1 and likely taking it in Game 2 unless the line is below plus-5. I'll also start with the unders in both games at Golden State and see how those games go and how the market reacts.
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