Bracket gets a makeover for March

ByCHARLIE CREME
March 2, 2015, 7:10 PM

— -- After a week full of unexpected results, the bracket got a makeover as we prepare for Championship Week. In some cases, things became more clear in this latest projection. Others? Not so much.

The host schools look nearly set and only five teams have any real claim to a No. 1 seed. But geography remains a question mark, and the lack of quality at the back end of the at-large pool makes for a rather repugnant bubble.

A look at the biggest changes and questions to debate this week:

Who has the most to host? With the first four seeds in each region serving as hosts for the first and second rounds, the battle for a top-16 spot takes on even larger importance. Right now, that competition looks pretty simple. Seventeen schools are vying for the 16 spots. Stanford, fresh off its lackluster performance at Oregon on Sunday (one of the aforementioned unexpected results), is currently the odd team out. Barring anything wildly unforeseen, no one else behind the Cardinal will threaten to move into hosting position (except one of the schools paired with Louisville; the Cardinals cannot host because of an arena conflict with the men's NCAA tournament).

A No. 1 swap: Tennessee and Maryland, which had been Nos. 4 and 5 overall, switched spots this week. But don't blame the Lady Vols' Big Monday loss to South Carolina. Sometimes the other team just puts another line on the résumé that makes it better. That's what Maryland did by winning at Northwestern, a team that had won eight in a row. Tennessee did nothing wrong. The Terps, who hadn't beaten a truly quality opponent in nearly three weeks, were able to finally make their profile slightly better. The profiles of Maryland and Tennessee, along with Baylor until the Lady Bears stumbled twice this week, had been viewed very similarly for weeks. Now Maryland simply moves ahead.

Irish rising: Something similar happened along the No. 1 line. South Carolina's loss at Kentucky on Sunday wasn't a bad loss by any means, but it was enough to allow Notre Dame -- which has won 14 in a row, including six against teams in the tournament discussion -- to move to the No. 2 overall position. South Carolina is No. 3. That meant moving the Irish to the closer Greensboro Regional and South Carolina to Oklahoma City, changing much of the rest of the bracket's structure from last week.

Beavers back east: It would make sense for Oregon State to play in the Spokane Regional. However, after the Beavers briefly dipped to a No. 3 seed (after the loss to Stanford) and then slid back into position for a No. 2 seed -- and the repositioning of Notre Dame and South Carolina -- there just isn't a way to properly balance the bracket and have the Beavers in Spokane. If the teams stay slotted the way they are now (and it's hard to fathom a scenario in which Oregon State gets higher than No. 7 overall), seeing what the committee does with a 2-seed Beaver team will be one of the more anticipated parts of Selection Monday. Interestingly enough, Oregon State would seem more likely to play in the Northwest if it ended up being a No. 3 seed. That is the quirkiness of seeding sometimes.

Now about that bubble

My sympathies to the committee. Trying to find the last couple of teams to round out this field will be a most unpleasant experience. It has easily been the most excruciating part of my weekend.

The bubble stinks. LSU, TCU, West Virginia, Miami and Arkansas are exceptionally flawed teams. Most years, the teams on the bubble have plenty wrong with their credentials. That isn't what makes this so difficult. It's finding that little bit to like. It's less apparent this season than most. The aforementioned group all made the field this week because there is something to point to, but even the good comes with a caveat.

All of West Virginia's and TCU's good wins have come within the Big 12, a league that just isn't as good as we're accustomed. LSU, which has been a better team since Danielle Ballard got to the court 15 games into the season, is a mere four games above .500 and had lost two straight heading down the home stretch before, perhaps, saving its season Sunday against Texas A&M. Miami has wins over Notre Dame and Syracuse -- but almost nothing else. All four of these clubs have RPIs as bad as any at-large teams of the past 15 years have had. And they aren't even the final team in. That's Arkansas.

By all accounts the Razorbacks should be out after two straight loss, including one to Missouri, and a 6-10 SEC record. It doesn't seem right. And it isn't. But look at the rest of the choices: NC State, San Diego, Michigan, Tulane, Washington State, Duquesne, Pacific, Saint Mary's, South Dakota State and Kansas State. The Razorbacks aren't a good choice, but they remain the best choice as the final team in.

Over the past few years, the committee has placed a high value among the bubble teams on those that did something, beat someone of note. This comes up every Selection Monday when the committee chair is asked why one team was included over another. None of the teams on this list have wins like Iowa and Oklahoma outside their conference. Washington State did beat Maryland and Dayton, but the Cougars have just three wins in February and aren't nearly the same team.

Arkansas looks much like Kansas in 2013. In fact, the Razorbacks look better. The Jayhawks were 17-13 with a 57 RPI, a strength of schedule of 18, an 8-10 Big 12 mark, and just three top-50 wins (Oklahoma, Iowa State and Creighton). Outside of conference record, Arkansas beats that Kansas team on all fronts. Incidentally, the Jayhawks were invited to the dance and then went on to reach the Sweet 16. Granted, teams from different years aren't truly worthy comparisons. But it's worth mentioning as a frame of reference, especially in a season, before the conference tournaments arrive, that has few other options.