Breaking down the Chase grid heading into Charlotte

— -- CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- The quarterfinal round -- or as NASCAR calls it, the "Round of 12" -- of the Chase for the Sprint Cup could be called the half-and-half round.

Half of the field of 12 are former champions: Matt Kenseth (2003), Kurt Busch (2004), Jimmie Johnson (2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2013), Brad Keselowski (2012), Kevin Harvick (2014) and Kyle Busch (2015).

Half of the field of 12 have never won a title: Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards and Austin Dillon.

Elliott and Dillon have never even won a Cup race. Johnson leads all drivers with 77 career wins.

By manufacturer, it's fairly even: Five Toyotas, five Chevrolets and two Fords.

Here's a look at their chances of advancing to the "Round of 8" as every driver left starts even with 3,000 points:

1. Martin Truex Jr.

Furniture Row Racing No. 78 Toyota

First-round wins: 2

First-round points: 2,131 (1st)

Why he will advance: Simple. He's been the most dominant driver as of late, having won three of the past five races.

Why he won't: Remember all those near-wins and bad luck he had in the first 24 races? It can return in an instant.

2. Kevin Harvick

Stewart-Haas Racing No. 4 Chevrolet

First-round wins: 1

First-round points: 2,075 (12th)

Why he will advance: The closer knows how to get it done.

Why he won't: This team certainly isn't immune to bad pit stops, mechanical failures and a fuel-mileage miscalculation.

3. Kyle Busch

Joe Gibbs Racing No. 18 Toyota

First-round wins: 0

First-round points: 2,125 (2nd)

Why he will advance: This team is quietly running well. Wait, that was last year's comment at this time. Still works.

Why he won't: There always is a chance of getting caught up in a mess at Talladega, and no one knows that better than Busch, who in 2014 seemed comfortably in the semifinal round only to get turned from behind while running in the back.

4. Matt Kenseth

Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota

First-round wins: 0

First-round points: 2,114 (4th)

Why he will advance: Kenseth is determined not to have a repeat of 2015. And he has a better chance to win Talladega than a year ago.

Why he won't: This team has been streaky this year with three or four top-10 races and then three-race stretches outside the top-10. He posted top-10 finishes in each race of the first round.

5. Joey Logano

Team Penske No. 22 Ford

First-round wins: 0

First-round points: 2,108 (5th)

Why he will advance: He won't do anything to beat himself.

Why he won't: Ford is just not there this year.

6. Chase Elliott

Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet

First-round wins: 0

First-round points: 2,106 (6th)

Why he will advance: He didn't crack under the pressure of the first round, so no reason to think he will this round. He had top-10s at Charlotte, Kansas and Talladega earlier this year.

Why he won't: Sometimes experience matters, and in this situation, it does.

7. Brad Keselowski

Team Penske No. 2 Ford

First-round wins: 0

First-round points: 2,125 (3rd)

Why he will advance: He knows when to make the move he needs at the critical moment.

Why he won't:?He thinks he knows when to make the move he needs at the critical moment -- and it costs him.

8. Kurt Busch

Stewart-Haas Racing No. 41 Chevrolet

First-round wins: 0

First-round points: 2,093 (10th)

Why he will advance: Busch has a way of getting the job done when you don't think he will.

Why he won't: This team has not seemed to capture the strength and speed that Harvick has.

9. Denny Hamlin

Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota

First-round wins: 0

First-round points: 2,103 (8th)

Why he will advance: He's done it twice before.

Why he won't: You might think the Daytona 500 winner would have an advantage at Talladega, but he finished 31st and 17th, respectively, in the two restrictor-plate races since that big win.

10. Carl Edwards

Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 Toyota

First-round wins: 0

First-round points: 2,095 (9th)

Why he will advance: Edwards and crew chief Dave Rogers have enough experience to rebound from a poor first round.

Why he won't: Because of their experience, Edwards and Rogers will out-think themselves and tune themselves out of races.

11. Jimmie Johnson

Hendrick Motorsports No. 48 Chevrolet

First-round wins: 0

First-round points: 2,105 (7th)

Why he will advance: He has returned pretty much to form, having led 208 laps in the first round.

Why he won't: The team beat itself twice in the first round and recovered. It won't be so easy in this round to overcome errors.

12. Austin Dillon

Richard Childress Racing No. 3 Chevrolet

First-round wins: 0

First-round points: 2,085 (11th)

Why he will advance: Sometimes destiny just goes your way.

Why he won't: Hasn't had the performance necessary to show he will be in the top eight.