Five burning questions off the women's NCAA bracket

ByGRAHAM HAYS
March 14, 2016, 8:22 PM

— -- The NCAA tournament is really a series of 63 questions that leaves us with a single answer to the question of which team will be national champion. So what are five more questions to prepare for the start of play?

1. How could Connecticut be stopped?

Let's set aside, for the time being, means supernatural or interventions divine.

The truth is that if Connecticut doesn't reach the Final Four, it will have fallen victim to the most significant upset in the tournament's history. That is, after all, what many people said of Baylor's loss against Louisville in the Sweet 16 three years ago. Baylor was the No. 1 overall seed, defending national champion and had two experienced All-Americans, including one who was clearly a transformative talent even as her college career unfolded. That much sounds familiar.

But Baylor wasn't undefeated entering the tournament that season. Connecticut is this season. Baylor outscored its opponents that season by an average of 27.5 points per game entering the tournament. Connecticut does so by 39.7 points per game (Connecticut also outscored nonconference opponents by 32.2 points per game this season). Brittney Griner and Odyssey Sims were going for a second title together. Breanna Stewart and Moriah Jefferson are after a fourth.

As unlikely as what Shoni Schimmel and the Cardinals pulled off in Oklahoma City was -- and even in a tournament that once saw a No. 16 seed win a game, it surpassed everything -- it also pales in comparison to the thought of a team other than Connecticut winning the Bridgeport regional.

How could Connecticut be stopped short of Indianapolis? It would help if a single challenger could be constructed from the components of the other 15 teams attempting to go it alone.

UCLA's post scorer: Maryland pushed Connecticut as much as any opponent, in part through Brionna Jones. It's one thing to accrue more rebounds than Connecticut -- Florida State did that and still lost by 24 points. Maryland held its own on the boards and also established a post presence through Jones, who scored 24 points on 12-of-14 shooting. It obviously hasn't hurt their record, but for all they do have, the Huskies don't yet have the kind of interior presence they had with Tina Charles, Stefanie Dolson or even Kiah Stokes on the defensive end a year ago. UCLA's 6-foot-4 Monique Billings isn't always a prolific scorer, but like Jones she's capable on a given night (for instance, 23 points on 10-of-15 shooting against USC this season).

BYU's 3-point shooting: How did Louisville beat Baylor three years ago? The same way Notre Dame hung around against Connecticut earlier this season. There is no more better upset formula than shooting ridiculously well from the 3-point line. Unfortunately, planning for that is kind of like counting on lightning strikes as the source of your electricity. There are teams that are more prolific from the 3-point line than BYU, but the WCC regular-season champion has the ideal mix of quantity and quality. Its three top shooters all convert at least 37 percent of their shots, and its best post player can step out and hit the occasional shot.

Duquesne's ball control: There is almost no way to prepare for Connecticut's pace, not in the sense of "40 minutes of hell" full-court pressing but just constant, unrelenting attention. No one player can solve that because the Huskies will make someone else handle the ball, but it helps to have someone calm at the helm (think of Notre Dame's Skylar Diggins at the height of the Big East rivalry). Few are better in that respect than Duquesne's April Robinson. She's a senior with good size and strength who isn't focused on getting her own shot and ranks 10th in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio, one spot behind Jefferson.

Texas' defense: No, it didn't go so well for the Longhorns when the teams met in the tournament a season ago (105 points of not so well). But we've also seen teams that can build a defense around a big shot-blocking presence hang around against the Huskies (BYU and Jennifer Hamson in the 2014 tournament). Texas is better overall defensively than it was at the end of last season, and it still has Imani Boyette in the middle of things.

If one opponent had all of the qualities spread across the Bridgeport bracket, Connecticut might have trouble getting to Indianapolis. But there is only one team in the tournament for which the greatest asset is its multitude of assets. And the Huskies don't play themselves in Bridgeport.

2. Which No. 1 seed has the most difficult road to Indianapolis?

While it would travel the fewest miles of any No. 1 seed, barely crossing one state line along the way, Notre Dame faces an on-court trek worthy of Lewis and Clark to make it to Bankers Life Fieldhouse.

Granted, the Fighting Irish aren't the only top seed with work ahead of them. While South Carolina, more than any team, has the size to neutralize the threat and would be at home, do you think Dawn Staley is super excited about a potential second-round game against George Washington's Jonquel Jones, a player with every bit the WNBA potential of A'ja Wilson or Alaina Coates?

Nor are there easy options for Baylor, which will likely have some combination of Florida State, Texas A&M, Louisville and Oregon State blocking its path.

But assuming Notre Dame plays to its seed in the first two rounds at home against No. 16 North Carolina A&T and then the winner between No. 8 Georgia and No. 9 Indiana, the regional in Lexington could just as easily earn the Irish tickets back to South Bend as Indianapolis. Start with a Sweet 16 game against Stanford. Their inglorious Pac-12 tournament exit notwithstanding, the Cardinal looked like a better team down the stretch of the regular season than the one that Notre Dame dispatched with ease in the Sweet 16 a season ago, far better defensively and more cohesive offensively.

Survive that and Notre Dame might well face a scenario in which playing the Big Ten regular-season and tournament champion, a team with Final Four experience, might be the preferred option. If the opponent isn't Maryland, with all the challenges posed by Shatori Walker-Kimbrough, Brionna Jones and Co., it will likely be Kentucky on the same court at Rupp Arena on which that team plays many of its biggest games.

The road to a sixth consecutive Final Four might be the most difficult of them all.

3. Where should the drama be during the first two rounds?

Tempe: No. 2 Arizona State vs. No. 15 New Mexico State, No. 7 Tennessee vs. No. 10 Green Bay

Who is the sympathetic character when David squares off against a down-on-its-luck Goliath? The most fascinating game of the entire first round pits Tennessee, a stumbling giant, against Green Bay, the enduring giant slayer. To understand their places in their respective ecosystems, major and mid-major, understand that the programs have 83 consecutive winning seasons between them. And all of that is just to earn the right to potentially play Arizona State and its at-times suffocating defense on its home court. Even the other game in Tempe offers some kind of story, as former USC coach Mark Trakh returns to Pac-12 territory with a 26-4 New Mexico State team that has NCAA tournament experience.

Louisville: No 3 Louisville vs. No. 14 Central Arkansas, No. 6 DePaul vs. No. 11 James Madison

Start with the respective players of the year from the ACC (Louisville's Myisha Hines-Allen), Big East (DePaul's Chanise Jenkins) and Colonial (James Madison's Jazmon Gwathmey). DePaul had some curious losses along the way, but it also played Connecticut to a standstill for a half, pushed Notre Dame to the wire and didn't embarrass itself against Baylor. The Blue Demons could be a tough test for what remains a young Louisville team -- except that there are no guarantees the Big East team will get past a first-round opponent that is well equipped to slow the game to a bumper-to-bumper defensive grind.

Syracuse: No. 4 Syracuse vs. No. 12 Albany, No. 5 Florida vs. No. 13 Army

Put the entire site on upset alert. Syracuse and Florida, two teams without much recent experience when it comes to the weight of NCAA expectations, face mid-major opponents that have built toward this opportunity with a senior star for four years. Army's Kelsey Minato (23.6 PPG) and Albany's Shereesha Richards (23.7) rank among the top four scorers in the bracket. And Albany already has habit of scaring favored seeds, nearly upsetting North Carolina when Richards was a freshman and Duke a season ago. Even if the seeds hold, either the Orange or Gators would add a pleasantly unfamiliar shade of orange to the Sweet 16.

4. Which team could crash the Final Four?

The chalk proved inarguably indelible a season ago, as all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four. There is a perception that happens every year, and like most such things, it's not without some grounding in reality. Favorites do well in the women's tournament, clearly.

But the gathering of No. 1 seeds in Tampa a year ago was also just the second time in the past nine seasons that all four top seeds advanced. On occasion, most recently Maryland two years ago, teams do make surprise runs to the semifinals. Since 2000, six teams seeded No. 4 or lower reached the Final Four, while another five teams seeded No. 3 did the same.

The best bet to add a name to the list is a team that doesn't have to leave home to do it.

Kentucky showed its potential with wins against Arizona State, Louisville and Duke early in the season (the last of those admittedly not the test it seemed at the time). It picked up momentum late in the season, beating Mississippi State, Missouri and Texas A&M during an eight-game winning streak that ended only when the Wildcats ran out of gas in the SEC final against South Carolina.

If we just ignore what came between those two points on the graph, it's easy to chart a path from Lexington to Indianapolis, particularly because there are no connecting flights.

Kentucky's chance to reach the Final Four without leaving one of its two homes in Lexington is a distinct advantage, but it isn't the only reason to pick the Wildcats. Neither set of fans in the state will appreciate the comparison, but just as Louisville followed first Angel McCoughtry and then Schimmel to the Final Four, Kentucky's Makayla Epps is the kind of player for whom March is made. An efficient offensive player who can score from all parts of the court, it's tough for a defense to take her out of a game. And while the roster is undeniably thin, it fits well around Epps, with 3-point shooters like Janee Thompson and Maci Morris and capable frontcourt scorers Alexis Jennings and Evelyn Akhator.

Which players should you catch while you can?

Seeding suggests these players won't be around beyond the first four days. Each has the talent to change that or at least put on a memorable show in trying.

Tyra Buss, No. 9 seed Indiana: A small-town scoring legend straight out of "Hoosiers" in high school, she's now a big-time all-around player for what, not coincidentally, is one of the nation's most improved teams.

Kelsey Minato, No. 13 seed Army: The Steph Curry comparisons aren't out of line for how the Patriot League's all-time leading scorer plays the game. She's top five nationally in 3-pointers and 3-point accuracy.

Jonquel Jones, No. 8 seed George Washington: The seed is the product of games she missed, which makes a 6-6 player with 3-point range and game-changing defensive reach a bracket buster.

Brittney Martin, No. 7 seed Oklahoma State: A senior peaking at the right time, she is one of two players in the nation to average 20 points and 10 rebounds per game, and the only one in the field.

Ellen Nystrom, No. 11 seed Colorado State: The committee didn't like one-loss Colorado State nearly as much as the Top 25 polls. A 6-1 Swedish guard who averages 10.6 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists, Nystrom will play the biggest role in determining which evaluation was correct.

Kelsey Plum, No. 7 seed Washington: What kind of knots does the tournament's leading scorer tie defenses in? She's fifth nationally in free throw percentage and yet also leads the nation in free throws made because they can't stop fouling her.

Shereesha Richards, No. seed 12 Albany: Ask Tennessee (19 points, 10 rebounds) or USC (33 points) what the mid-major part is of the senior's game.

Courtney Williams, No. 6 seed South Florida: First or second on the team in points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and 3-pointers, she also has more assists than turnovers. That's all-around talent.