Calder Watch: Auston Matthews leads the field
— -- It's another impressive class of NHL rookies in 2016-17, as we have potential superstar forwards, along with the reigning Stanley Cup champion netminder. Auston Matthews got the season started in exhilarating fashion, but who will be his toughest challengers in the Calder Trophy race?
Bear in mind that these are not prospect rankings. Instead, this is a forecast ranking based on how I think these players will perform during the course of the season. The latest edition of my NHL prospect rankings can be found? here.
I struggled to find a place here for Arizona's Christian Dvorak and Dylan Strome. Although both have looked good, Coyotes coach Dave Tippett seems to be platooning them, in a sense, as the second-line center. Until I see more certainty about their playing time, it's hard for them to get into the top 10. If both earn full-time spots in the lineup, they could both make the top 10.
1. Auston Matthews, C, Toronto Maple Leafs
The start to Matthews' first NHL season was just OK. He hasn't been all that memorable. I'm sure he'll turn it around at some point in the future, though. In all seriousness, the Leafs might be adjusting their plans for "easing Matthews into the lineup," based on what we've seen thus far.
2. Patrik Laine, LW, Winnipeg Jets
Similar to Matthews, Laine elevated himself quickly from a third-line assignment to playing 19 minutes in his second game with the Jets. After his performance at last year's World Championships and at the World Cup of Hockey -- and with his own thrilling performance in scoring a hat trick against Matthews and the Leafs -- there's little doubt about whether he's ready to perform at a high level in the NHL. He could clear 25 goals.
3. Matt Murray, G, Pittsburgh Penguins
Murray's slot is hard to figure out here. If he gets a full-time job in the net and plays anywhere close to how he's looked the past two seasons -- including but not limited to being the starting goalie on a Cup winner -- he could run away with the Calder. However, Marc-Andre Fleury isn't going to walk gently into that good night, so projecting playing time is an issue. Due to how fantastic Matthews and Laine have looked through the World Cup and early NHL games, this seems like a reasonable compromise.
4. Mitch Marner, RW, Toronto Maple Leafs
A few games into the NHL season, Marner seems to be picking up right where he left off last season in the OHL. In other words, he is looking like a dominant offensive force. He has arguably looked as good as Matthews, despite not having a four-goal performance to his name.
5. Ivan Provorov, D, Philadelphia Flyers
After seeing how Provorov has looked through the end of the preseason and beginning of the season, it's almost amazing to think he was considered to be on the roster bubble. He has been a huge pillar of stability for the Flyers' blue line, playing a solid, two-way game with flashes of his ultimate upside.
6. William Nylander, C, Toronto Maple Leafs
I can almost hear Nylander lightly whispering, "I'm here too ..." as Marner and particularly Matthews have drawn tons of praise through the opening week of the season. He was a dominant player at the AHL level last season, and in talking to several pro scouts heading into the season, there was significant expectation that Nylander could step into the Leafs' top six and hold his own. To date, he has done that. He plays the game at a quick tempo, with a lot of creativity.
7. Zach Werenski, D, Columbus Blue Jackets
Werenski has been one of the Blue Jackets' best players to open the season, playing an important role in their top four and moving the puck on their top power-play unit. He was great at every level and event last season as an 18-year-old, so it isn't surprising to see his success continue at the top level.
8. Brayden Point, C, Tampa Bay Lightning
The 79th overall pick from 2014 is making a lot of people look bad right now, as Point has continued to look like the top player he was through his WHL career. On a team deep with scoring talent, Point is getting a regular shift and power-play time, and he has earned it. He's a smart and skilled playmaker, and despite a small frame, he finds a way to get the puck back and make things happen.
9. Pavel Buchnevich, RW, New York Rangers
Buchnevich has been a little banged up recently, but it doesn't look like a major injury. Prior to the injury, he was a very important player in the Rangers' lineup. His fantastic puck skills and ability to make offensive plays at a pro pace were much-needed additions to a Rangers lineup not exactly gushing with top-end scoring talent. Buchnevich is a flawed player off the puck, but so far, he has looked capable of being a valuable NHL forward.
10. Sebastian Aho, C, Carolina Hurricanes
Aho has been decent but not outstanding through his first few NHL games, but I believe he has another level, based on what he has shown the past couple seasons. Aho is a very good skater and puck handler who projects to be a two-way center in the future. As of now, Carolina will likely lean on him for just his offensive talents.
Honorable mentions (in alphabetical order)
Brandon Carlo, D, Boston Bruins
Kyle Connor, LW, Winnipeg Jets
Travis Konecny, RW, Philadelphia Flyers
Michael Matheson, D, Florida Panthers
Tyler Motte, LW, Chicago Blackhawks
Devin Shore, C, Dallas Stars
Jimmy Vesey, LW, New York Rangers
Nikita Zaitsev, D, Toronto Maple Leafs
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