How Cam Newton and Russell Wilson can exploit two top defenses

ByMATT BOWEN
January 12, 2016, 12:50 PM

— -- Back in Week 6, the Carolina Panthers put together a fourth-quarter run on the road to get a 27-23 comeback win over the Seattle Seahawks. It was the start of Cam Newton's MVP parade as the quarterback took the game over late (98.6 QBR in the fourth quarter). It also led to more questions about the Seahawks' inability to close the door after blowing their fourth fourth-quarter lead in six games.

Sure, that tape from Week 6 can help us prep for the rematch this Sunday in the NFC divisional playoffs, but it also points to two teams -- especially on the offensive side of the ball -- that have changed quite a bit over the course of the season.

The biggest question heading into Sunday: Can Newton and  Russell Wilson move the ball consistently against two championship-level defenses? Let's look at three offensive keys for both Carolina and Seattle, as they get ready to play for a ticket to the NFC championship game.

Carolina's keys

Attack three-deep coverage

Newton struggled throwing the ball down the field in Week 6 (2-of-12 on passes thrown at least 15 yards, two interceptions), but the Panthers can script more high-percentage throws to avoid safety  Earl Thomas when Seattle plays its bread-and-butter Cover 3 scheme. I wouldn't expect to see a lot of Cover 2 after the Seahawks gave up two plays in the final drive against Carolina in Week 6, including the busted coverage on the game-winner to Greg Olsen.

The Panthers need to attack the seams and intermediate zones on Sunday. That's the weakest point of the defense. This could be an inside seam to Olsen, the skinny post/slant to a much-improved  Devin Funchess or the play-action concepts that force the linebackers to step downhill. Those are high-percentage throws for Newton, and he can thread the ball into tight windows given his ridiculous arm strength.

Plus, Ted Ginn Jr. has developed into a legitimate deep threat since the Week 6 matchup. That means the Panthers can run the standard three-deep beaters, such as the post-wheel and four verticals to target the top of the secondary with the deep-ball speed of Ginn.

Yes, the Seahawks are much better on defense after releasing cornerback Cary Williams, who was targeted often in Week 6, and getting Jeremy Lane back in the lineup. And I know Thomas is the best free safety in the game in terms of range and football awareness. But to beat Seattle, it's on Newton and the Panthers to be aggressive against Cover 3. And there are concepts that will work if executed correctly given the Panthers' personnel.

Get creative in the run game

Jonathan Stewart, Mike Tolbert, Cameron Artis-Payne -- these Panthers RBs all run hard and are a fit for Carolina's power schemes. But when playing Seattle, it's not as simple as getting a hat-on-a-hat and letting your backs get downhill. The Seahawks, with  Kam Chancellor dropping down into the box, are super quick off the ball (check out tape of Michael Bennett) and disciplined as they pursue the ball with speed. The Minnesota Vikings found that out this past weekend when Adrian Peterson was limited to 45 yards rushing on 23 carries. It's tough to create running lanes versus the unit.

But the Panthers' ability to use misdirection schemes in the run game, like they did back in Week 6, allows Carolina to use the Seahawks' defensive speed against them. That means more spread looks in which the Panthers show counter/split flow (see diagram below), while forcing the Seahawks' defenders to over-pursue to the ball. By using jet motion looks, reverse fakes and wide receiver shifts into the backfield, the Panthers will create opportunities in the run game. In Week 6, the majority of Stewart's positive runs (20 carries, 78 yards) came off counter action or zone-read plays.

Plus, we can't forget about the QB-designed runs, or quarterback reads, that come off these schemes. This could be as simple as the zone-read to get the ball in Newton's hands. The Panthers even ran some Inverted Power Veer (pull the backside guard to the play side) in the Week 6 game and the QB Power on the goal line off a counter look. Any play that makes Newton the primary ball carrier is a good thing for this offense.

Target Greg Olsen

Olsen lit up the Seahawks in Week 6 (seven receptions, 131 yards, one touchdown), as the Panthers used the tight end in a variety of ways.

Olsen was targeted twice on the post-wheel (from two different formations), he ran the dig route, the seam, the shallow crosser, etc. The point here? He's a versatile, movable piece in the Panthers' game plan. Just like we talked about above with Olsen attacking the seams, the Panthers can feature the tight end out of 3x1 alignment to get an inside matchup and also use more play action (boot) to sneak Olsen over the top of the secondary. Plus, he has the ability to line up as a receiver against Lane or even Richard Sherman and use his size to gain inside leverage (he beat both Williams and Sherman back in Week 6).

Even with the development of the Panthers' receiving corps this season, Olsen is still the key to the Panthers' passing attack, in my opinion -- especially against a zone-based defense. He's one of the NFL's most underrated pass-catching TEs and provides Newton with a reliable target at all three levels of the field.

Seattle's keys

Movement passes

In that Week 6 matchup, the Seahawks' offensive line was still having issues, which showed on the film -- and in the numbers. Wilson was pressured on 46 percent of his dropbacks, as he was often forced to create a play from a busted pocket.

The Panthers will bring some five- and six-man zone blitzes, but at their core, they're not a blitz-heavy team. Their front four -- led by Kawann Short and multiple edge rushers -- is just nasty. So, even though his offensive line is much-improved since Week 6, Wilson will again be asked to create some magic when the pocket breaks down. But to counter the Carolina pass rushing talent, I'd like to see the Seahawks run more movement passes to get Wilson to the edge.

That means more boot schemes, which would create two levels of passing lanes for Wilson while testing the Panthers' defensive ends to rush with contain responsibilities. I know it's pretty basic stuff. But Wilson is so good when he gets to the edge, and he is always a threat to pull the ball down to run.

The one thing we have to remember here is that the movement passes like the boot have to be set up. Show the Panthers the run action and then get Wilson out on the edge, where he can create big plays with  Doug Baldwin and rookie Tyler Lockett, who have both gotten measurably better since Week 6.

Give Wilson plenty of options

The zone-read and run-pass options (RPOs) don't have to be the focal point of the Seahawks' game plan this Sunday, but I love what they provide to Wilson and this offense. Regardless if Marshawn Lynch is back in the lineup, these schemes allow the Seahawks to create running lanes and throwing windows.

Just the threat of Wilson keeping the ball on the zone-read will open up running lanes for Lynch, Christine Michael or  Fred Jackson. As the Seahawks showed this past weekend in the wild card matchup against Minnesota, they can go 3x1 and run the zone-read toward the backside tight end. That allows the tight end to release on the cornerback and forces the safety to fill versus Wilson when he pulls the ball.

With the RPOs (or packaged plays), the Seahawks can let the Panthers' defensive alignment dictate the play call. Wilson has all the options afforded to him on a regular zone-read scheme, plus the added benefit of having built-in pass options (quick slant, bubble screen, etc.). If the Panthers' All-Pro linebackers start coming downhill, Wilson has the opportunity for a big play in the open window.

The zone-read and the RPOs won't replace the Seahawks' core running schemes or the base passing concepts in the playbook, but I think they are critical to the Seahawks creating some positive plays.

Targeting the Panthers' safeties

The strength of this Panthers' defense is up front and at the cornerback position with Josh Norman. So, why not script some concepts to target safeties Kurt Coleman and Roman Harper? Coleman is expected back this Sunday (foot sprain), and he had a monster season for the Panthers with seven interceptions. And Harper makes up for his lack of speed with his high-level football IQ on the field.

But if Seattle wants to flip the field, targeting the safeties (off max-protection) could create some one-on-one situations for Baldwin, Lockett and Jermaine Kearse. Test the technique, eyes and recovery speed of these two safeties to stay on top of the route. Given the development of Lockett, and the route running ability of Baldwin, the Seahawks can put speed in the slot and work to eat up the cushion/depth of the top of the Panthers' secondary.

Remember, lining up in man-to-man against Wilson is always a risk as the defenders in coverage play with their backs to the QB. And the Panthers gave up a big play to Wilson back in Week 6 in a man-coverage look when the quarterback scrambled for a 20-yard gain. Could that mean more zone coverage this Sunday? Maybe. And if that's the case, the Seahawks have to get some speed in the slot and try to break the game open.