Why Cardinals are FPI's Super Bowl favorite

BySHARON KATZ
December 8, 2015, 1:07 PM

— -- The Carolina Panthers are one of nine teams in the Super Bowl era to start 12-0, but according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), they are not even the favorite to win their conference. That distinction belongs to the 10-2 Arizona Cardinals, who have moved up to No. 1 in the FPI rankings and have the best chance of any team in either conference to win the Super Bowl (25 percent).

Instead of focusing on FPI's "disrespect" of the Panthers, let's dive deeper into why the Cardinals are rated so high.

First, Arizona is one of the most balanced teams in the NFL. The Cardinals lead the league in offensive efficiency and rank third in defensive efficiency. They are just the third team in the past 10 seasons to rank in the top three on both sides of the ball this late in the season (Texans 2012, Colts 2007).

A major reason for the Cardinals' offensive success is Carson Palmer, who is having an MVP-caliber season that is largely going unnoticed. Not only does Palmer lead the league in Total QBR, but he has posted a QBR above 50 in every game this season. The last three QBs to start a season with 12 straight games with a QBR above 50 ( Aaron Rodgers in 2011, Peyton Manning in '09 and Tom Brady in '07) all won the MVP that season.

Palmer is helped by arguably the deepest receiving corps in the league. Arizona's wide receivers -- highlighted by Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Michael Floyd -- lead all wideouts in yards (2,841) and 20-yard receptions (45), while posting the lowest drop rate (1.4 percent) in the NFL.

In addition to a productive offense, the Cardinals have an efficient defense that can force turnovers and get off the field. One key to their success has been their secondary, which has an NFL-high 15 interceptions and is allowing the lowest completion percentage on throws of 15-plus yards (31.5 percent) in the NFL.

Because of all of these factors, Arizona is projected to be about 1.1 points better than any other team on a neutral field and about 2.7 points better than Carolina.

But the race for the Super Bowl is not as simple as which team will win on a neutral field.

FPI projects that Carolina has a 90 percent chance to earn the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the NFC. That means Arizona will likely have to beat the Panthers on the road. In fact, in 54 percent of FPI's simulations, Arizona and Carolina meet in the NFC title game, and 90 percent of those games were in Carolina. Despite that disadvantage, Arizona beat the Panthers about 50 percent of the time.

Nonetheless, the race for the NFC championship is tight; the Cardinals have a 42 percent chance to represent the conference in the Super Bowl and the Panthers have a 39 percent chance, according to FPI. The Seahawks have the third-best chance in the NFC to make the Super Bowl, at 9 percent.

The AFC's Super Bowl representative is much more unclear, which is one factor contributing to each team's seemingly low Super Bowl odds. The Patriots, Bengals and Broncos all have between a 20 percent and 35 percent chance to win the conference, but no matter which team represents the AFC, FPI would favor the Cardinals by at least one point against any opponent on Feb. 7.

Last year at this time, the Cardinals were 9-3 and couldn't find a quarterback to replace injured Carson Palmer. They had one of the lowest scoring margins for any team to start that well, resulting in many analysts attributing their hot start to luck. This year could not be more different; Arizona has the best scoring margin the league (plus-150) and is one of the most complete teams in the NFL. What a difference a year makes.