Career betting performance for Cormier and Jones

ByREED KUHN
June 30, 2016, 11:00 AM

— -- There is undoubtedly a lot at stake at UFC 200, outside of even the fight itself. The promotion is on the verge of either a major investment from outside stakeholders (or even an outright sale), and three titles are on the line for the first time in the modern UFC era, with a fight card stacked with veterans, stars and former champions.

All the reason to expect more action at the sports books than ever before for a UFC event.

Among the storylines surrounding the rematch and title unification for the light heavyweight division, it is likely overlooked that the implications for Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier could be career-defining from a betting perspective. Despite both men having strong positive returns on investment through their UFC careers to date, the seemingly more underestimated Cormier has yet to jump the ranks into the truly elite.

Which fighter has been the more profitable bet over their career thus far?

At 16-1 in the UFC and with his only loss via disqualification due to illegal strikes, Jones has a plus-35 percent career return on investment (ROI) to date, on a strong average betting line of -305, which ranks him in the top 15 all-time among veterans with sufficient sample size. Jones was an underdog in his first few fights before rapidly ascending the ranks to become the UFC's youngest champion, and the market has recognized his talent by making him the favorite in every fight since.

Cormier was a long shot surprise winner of the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix before arriving in the UFC, where he eventually dropped down a division to work toward a light heavyweight title shot. When he challenged Jones for the title last year, the betting lines were among the tightest of Jones' reign. Cormier came up short that night, and he is now a much bigger underdog in their rematch, despite overcoming stiff competition since -- as the new champion during Jones' suspension. At 6-1 in the UFC, Cormier has had a strong average line of -275 but has returned only plus-16 percent to date.

However, at UFC 200, these differences could take a sharp reversal if an upset occurs, as the chart below shows.

A win for Jones would unify the belt and eliminate all talk of who deserves to be king of the division. It would also bump Jones further up the ranks of the best betting investments in UFC history.

But based on current betting odds, there's also a lot to lose here for Jones. An upset win for Cormier would wipe away more than half of Jones' returns to date, and it also would leapfrog Cormier into a lofty position among the all-time greats.