Cleveland Cavaliers: 2015-16 player profiles
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Here are our player scouting reports and 2015-16 projections for the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Projected starters
Kyrie Irving
Position: Guard
Experience: 4 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Dynamite drive-and-kick point guard
+ Elite shot-making ability with 3-point range
+ Improved but below-average defensive point guard
Analysis
At the bottom line of the value metrics, Kyrie Irving was virtually the same player last season as he's been through his career. Still, for the first time, Irving proved his immense production can come in the context of a high-level team performance. Irving has never been better and showed he is a worthy successor to Dwyane Wade as LeBron James' running mate.
First the value metrics: Irving's winning percentage the past three seasons has been .606, .592 and .605. Consistent. His WARP last season (10.8) was a career high, but that was simply because he was on the floor more often, getting into 75 games and logging a career-high 2,730 minutes. The leap in his game comes in the impact category. His 95th percentile WARP in 2013-14 went with just a 66th percentile RPM (minus-0.31). Last season, he was in the 96th percentile in WARP and his single-season RPM (plus-3.40) jutted up to the 93rd percentile. That kind of symmetry is a sure sign that a player is producing not just for himself, but for his teammates as well.
Playing next to James, the primary change in Irving's game was that his frontcourt touches decreased by 11 per 100 possessions over the previous season, per SportVu. Beyond that, his per-touch tendencies were similar. He passed a little more frequently, took shots at about the same rate and surprisingly was also steady in areas like getting catch-and-shoot looks and working in isolation. But the James tide raises all boats and with Irving, that came in the form of enhanced efficiency. He hit 41.5 percent from deep, 46.6 percent from midrange, cut his turnovers and even finished a little better around the basket. His rate of assist opportunities went down, but his per-pass creating of scoring plays was about the same. All in all, his .583 true shooting percentage came on a 26.2 percent usage rate, which is All-NBA material.
Irving's defensive metrics were on the upswing as well. His single-season defensive RPM was a career-best minus-0.89. He could do better, but it's unlikely Irving will ever be honored at that end. The Cavs' defensive rating was about 1.5 points better with Irving off the floor. What you'd like to see is eventually he gets to the point where there isn't a drop-off at all -- you want your core players to be part of your best defensive units. Though Irving played the most he's ever played and got his first taste of playoff action, injuries once again became part of his narrative when he was felled by a knee injury during the postseason. The Cavs will be cautious with Irving and estimates for his return have ranged widely, from soon after opening night to late December. Irving begins the first year of his five-year max extension and it's imperative that he remain healthy to the end if Cleveland is finally going to snap its championship drought. We saw the limits of what James can do on his own. Impressive though it was, his effort didn't bring home the crown. Irving must be there to help.
Iman Shumpert
Position: Guard
Experience: 4 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Athletic, defensively effective backcourt defender
+ Streaky shooter who struggles to finish around the basket
+ Good passer and above-average ball protector
Analysis
Iman Shumpert ended last season a little battered, and he'll begin this season much the same. In between, he signed a four-year, $40 million deal to remain a key complementary player on a Cleveland team hoping to ring up some titles. Despite once again producing numbers at a rate just above replacement level (0.7 WARP), Shumpert showed he can be a key piece in a supporting role on a good team. His RPM (plus-2.25) was again in the league's top 15 percent. Over the full season between New York and Cleveland, Shumpert was plus on the offensive end in RPM, and for the third straight season well over break-even on defense. His role shrunk after his trade to the Cavaliers, but his importance did not.
Shumpert's usage rate dropped by 5.1 percent when he switched teams, then fell another 2.7 percent in the postseason, when he battled shoulder and groin injuries. He became even more of a jump shooter with the Cavs. That probably was a good thing because Shumpert chronically struggles to finish at the basket, despite superlative leaping ability. He struggled from the corners a year ago in comparison to past seasons, but was solid above the break and from midrange. Playing alongside Kyrie Irving and LeBron James, Shumpert's catch-and-shoot game is of increasing importance. But his stroke comes and goes, as is evidenced by a sub-par free throw percentage (67.2) and a 10th-percentile rating in unguarded catch-and-shoot situations, per Synergy. Shumpert is an above-average passer, though the need for him to be a playmaker is marginalized in Cleveland.
Shumpert's defensive impact with the Cavs was considerable. Cleveland was 6.2 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor, and his defensive RPM (plus-1.92) reached the 90th percentile. Shumpert's steal rate was in the league's top 7 percent. Some of his per-play metrics from Synergy lag, especially against the pick-and-roll (16th percentile) and isolations (4th percentile). But the Cavs gave up just 99.2 points per 100 possessions when he was on the court, the best figure on the entire roster. And after the trade, he held opposing 3-point shooters 6.8 percent below their norm, per SportVu. So he's doing something right. A preseason wrist injury to Shumpert's shooting wrist will muddy the waters for Cleveland early in the season. While he'll be able to stay conditioned, there's not much you can do to keep your shooting touch sharp with a wrist injury. His modus operandi in Cleveland is as a 3-and-D specialist and for a while, the 3 part of that equation might lag.
LeBron James
Position: Forward
Experience: 12 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Despite a slight decline in shooting last season, remained among the elite of the elite
+ Great scorer and passer, with league's highest basketball IQ
+ Athletic indicators remained intact despite early-season back trouble
Analysis
More than ever, LeBron James showed us last season he's willing to do whatever it takes to win. How James played during the last couple of rounds of the playoffs was something we've never seen from him before. The Cavs came up two wins shy of a title and in terms of shooting percentage, James never has been more inefficient. Yet in many ways, he's never been more impressive. Launching 30-plus shots per game is just not James' way. He's taken 33 shots or more 19 times in his career, including the playoffs. Five of those came in the Finals against Golden State, including a career-high 38 FGAs in Game 1. His per-game averages of 30.1 points, 11.3 rebounds and 8.5 assists over 20 playoff games were 1960s Oscar-Robertson numbers.
The performance capped a mostly triumphant return to Cleveland for James after some early road bumps. A bad back limited him early on, he missed some games, and the Cavs struggled to meet sky-high expectations. But after some mid-season roster shuffling, the Cavs and coach Dave Blatt fully integrated with the game's biggest star. The slow start kept James' WARP down a bit, which is a relative statement: After finishing first or second in WARP for 10 straight seasons, in 2015-16 he was seventh. But his multi-season RPM remains the best in the game and it's hard to argue that any current player has more of an impact on this team's success.
James didn't shoot the ball as well from deep as he has in past seasons, and that became more and more of a problem in the postseason, when he was forced to repeatedly bully his way to the paint. Beyond that, all his indicators were steady. Same elite passer, albeit with a few more turnovers. Same above-average rebounder. Same top-flight defender. He spent more time on the wing and less at 4 than he did in Miami, before becoming more or less an enormous full-time point guard after Kyrie Irving went down during the playoffs.
James turns 31 on Dec. 30 of this season, so we can't take this level of performance for granted. But if the one flaw in his game last season was his shooting stroke, you can expect a torrid showing in 2015-16. There has been talk of monitoring James' minutes which is a good idea. However, it might be tough to pull off early in the season because of the number of James' teammates recovering from injury.
Kevin Love
Position: Forward
Experience: 7 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Skilled scorer and passer from big-man positions
+ Prolific defensive rebounder
+ Not a defensive anchor, but holds up in team concept
Analysis
Kevin Love didn't put up the numbers his first season in Cleveland at the same level he did in Minnesota, when he climbed as high as third in the NBA in WARP. But to label Love's season a disappointment is to set an awfully high standard. Clearly the Cavaliers weren't deterred by the performance of the player for whom they traded away Andrew Wiggins: Cleveland gave Love a five-year, $110 million deal to remain as the league's best third wheel. The only real disappointment in Love's season was that the nasty shoulder injury he suffered against Boston in the first round limited his first playoff exposure to just four games. During the regular season, the Cavs' offensive rating was four points better with Love on the floor, and three points better on defense. So while his WARP tumbled from 20.2 and his RPM from plus-5.45 to plus-2.71, he was still in the top 10 percent of the most-impactful players in the NBA. That's a pretty good "down" season.
The Cavs could have done a better job at using Love in a more versatile fashion, though some of the shift is intrinsic when a player moves from a No. 1 option to a No. 3. His overall touches fell by 12 per 100 possessions, per SportVu. But the big difference was that his elbow touches fell from 23.3 per 100 possessions to 7.8. The portion of his shots that came on corner 3s jumped by 10 percent, and he got 169 fewer shots in the restricted area. Love didn't shoot the ball quite as well overall, but even so, with a usage rate down 7.3 percent, there was just no way he was going to be as productive. Love did his job. He ranked in the 92nd percentile at his position on unguarded catch-and-shoot plays, per Synergy, and also had the league's best rate on jumpers off the dribble.
Love struggled to find productive opportunities with his formerly pinpoint passing and that is a sign his role needs to be tweaked going forward. Love's playmaking ability, offensive rebounding and midrange shooting ability are too good to be marginalized. If LeBron James' minutes this season are reduced, then Cleveland needs Love to be on the floor when he is not so he can operate in his comfort zone for at least one or two shifts a game. Love's defensive RPM (plus-0.96) was in the 77th percentile and beyond elite defensive rebounding, most of his metrics are around the league median. He's no ace on that end, but with the right talent around him, Love won't sink a defense. Like several of his teammates, Love might be a bit limited early as he completes his recovery from the shoulder problem.
Timofey Mozgov
Position: Center
Experience: 5 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Solid post scorer and pick-and-roll finisher
+ Excellent rebounder on both ends
+ Good interior defender but can be schemed off the floor by small lineups
Analysis
It was quite a season for Timofey Mozgov, who was traded by lottery-bound Denver in midseason and wound up as arguably the second-best healthy player for Cleveland in the latter rounds of the playoffs. All along, he was the same player for the Cavaliers as he was for the Nuggets. Roster fit can do a lot for the perception of a player. Coming off two straight three-WARP seasons and entering a contract year in which he'll be paid $4.95 million, Mozgov has become an essential value for a Cleveland team increasingly laden with huge contracts. His free agency next summer will be interesting. Even with influx of cash on the way, can the Cavs afford to pay Mozgov fair market value when so many teams will be scrambling to spend cap space?
Before Mozgov hits the market however, there is a championship to chase. Mozgov had a knee scoped in July and his recovery kept him out of this summer's EuroBasket and likely will limit his use in preseason. It's probably not a big deal. Mozgov gave Cleveland a sorely-needed defensive anchor when he came over from Denver. His RPM on that end for the season was plus-3.43 (97th percentile) and he provided starter-worthy rim protection and shot blocking.
Mozgov is an excellent rebounder on both ends of the floor. He's versatile enough on the offensive end to score rolling to the basket but also operate effectively in the post. Mozgov is most definitely a finisher though, with some of the worst passing metrics in the league and a too-high turnover rate. There is nothing he really does that is elite. However, Mozgov is a plus performer in most of the key big-man categories and, as mentioned, his contract is a bargain.
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