Colts were right to go for it, wrong to use trick play
— -- Down by six points with 1:14 remaining in the third quarter, the Indianapolis Colts faced a fourth and 3 at the Indy 37. At first appearing to line up for a punt, the Colts sent every player except wide receiver Griff Whalen and safety Colt Anderson far to the right side of the line of scrimmage. The Patriots handled the unorthodox play well, and sent two defenders directly across from the snapper.
Inexplicably, the Colts snapped the ball, which was bobbled briefly before the Patriots quickly corralled Anderson for a small loss. The play made little sense for a variety of reasons, and one of them is that no trick play was even needed.
A normal run or pass play on fourth and 3 would have made the most sense of all. Even though the Colts were in their own territory, going for it slightly improved their net win probability to 20.7 percent, compared to 19.9 percent if they chose to punt. The league average probability of a conversion in this situation is 50 percent -- and the Colts only needed it to be 44 percent to make it worth the risk.
So, going for it was the right call, but an exotic and untested trick play doesn't help unless the Colts were confident they could improve on that 50 percent probability of success, something very hard to picture.
Perhaps the Colts intended to try to draw the Patriots offside, or simply to force them to use a timeout. Whatever their intent, they would likely have been better off just lining up and playing good old-fashioned football.
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