Curious case of Tristan Thompson

ByBRIAN WINDHORST
August 10, 2015, 7:12 PM

— -- Tristan Thompson finds himself at the center of one of the most complex free agency situations of the last decade. This is why he remains the highest-profile free agent after six weeks on the market with no end in sight.

At the heart of the matter is what qualifies as leverage for Thompson as the NBA sits on the cusp of a glacial shift in salary structure.

There is no clear precedent for his position, which has led to a stalemate between Thompson and the Cleveland Cavaliers. It has been difficult to negotiate a middle ground, setting the stage for possible tension as training camp approaches.

Thompson, an excellent offensive rebounder and pick-and-roll player who proved valuable in the Cavs' run to the Finals, is believed to be looking for a maximum-level contract of around $94 million over five years. The Cavs' offers have been for significantly less.

There has been no real progress since the second week of July when talks reached an impasse and both sides dug in.

Of course, it is not unusual for a restricted free agent like Thompson to be without a deal until August or September. Typically the team has the leverage in these situations because it has the right to match offers, and that often kills the market. Most other teams that had enough space to lure Thompson with an offer sheet have already used all of their money. Only the Portland Trail Blazers, who gave an offer sheet to restricted free agent Enes Kanter only to see it matched, are still a remote option.

Meanwhile, the player has only two ways to gain an advantage, both of which are rarely used: accept what would likely be a much lower one-year qualifying offer to earn unrestricted free agency the following summer or hold out of training camp to pressure the team to budge.

Both courses of action carry unsavory risk and therefore have limited leverage. Teams often have success waiting out their restricted free agents because the bluffs are usually easy to call.

However, this may not be the case for Thompson, who has two things going for him that his restricted free agent brethren in the past did not. One is the expected $20 million leap in the salary cap next season that will also drag the maximum salary levels up with it. The other is the fact that more than 20 teams are projected to have cap space for a max-level free agent next summer, making it the best summer to be a free agent perhaps in the history of American professional sports.

"The 2016 free agent class isn't very deep and it's generally older," said one NBA general manager. "It's rare to see an unrestricted free agent that's 25 or younger, especially a big. If [Thompson] were to be an unrestricted free agent next summer and he's healthy, he probably would be one of the top free agents available."

In a market awash in cash, that may mean multiple max offers if Thompson has even an average season by his standards. Unless he gets an offer he likes from the Cavs this summer, that gives Thompson an incentive to use one of his available weapons and accept a one-year qualifying offer of $6.8 million to get himself to unrestricted free agency next year.

Because the max contract for a player of his experience level may jump more than $5 million from its level this year, Thompson may be able to quickly make up the money he'd leave on the table this season and earn millions more over the long haul.

This dulls the Cavs' restricted free agency hammer and incentivizes Thompson to be more demanding in talks. The Cavs already have cost themselves some money after not being more aggressive in their offer to Thompson when he could've gotten an extension last October. If they don't make a long-term deal with him this year, then it could compound the issue, and the chance of losing Thompson after next season becomes real.

Thompson's agent, Rich Paul, ramped up that rhetoric on Monday when he told several media outlets, including ESPN, that "if [Thompson] is on the qualifying offer, [this] will be his last year with the Cavs."