Drawing up Super Bowl LI game plans for Patriots, Falcons
— -- Let's break down three keys for both the New England Patriots and the Atlanta Falcons as they prepare for Super Bowl LI on Sunday. We'll discuss how I would game plan to limit the production of Julio Jones, how?Atlanta can scheme to get after? Tom Brady?and much more.
Three keys for the Patriots
1. Create layers of coverage versus Julio Jones
Why it's important: Jones has caught 15 of 20 targets for 247 yards (16.5 yards per catch) and three touchdowns in two playoff games. Rolling help to the Falcons' No. 1 wide receiver will allow the New England defense to limit big plays versus the league's most complete player.
How you do it: The Patriots can certainly play combination coverages against Jones. That allows the New England secondary to make on-field calls/adjustments to specific techniques based on the alignment of Jones.?
Jones bumps down into the slot? Make a "slice" call (inside bracket). He tightens his split to the core of the formation (high alert for a crossing route)? Make a "cut" call so the free safety can drive downhill on the inside release. The Patriots can also play some "cloud" looks (out of both two- and three-deep shells) to get hands on Jones at the release with a safety waiting over the top.
But for all the checks the Patriots could possible carry into the game Sunday, I would keep it simple and use the same plan Bill Belichick showed in the AFC Championship Game against Antonio Brown and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Remember, you don't have to be ultra complicated when technique is the focus.
Here's an example of the Patriots rolling a safety to Brown with Malcolm Butler playing underneath man-coverage:
In terms of a combination call, this is a "fist" check in the playbook with Butler using an inside "trail-man" technique and a safety over the top (2-Man). That allows the Patriots to lean on the aggressive and physical play of Butler underneath with a safety providing the added protection over the top to take away the fade, corner route and post. Plus, with safety Devin McCourty rolled down to play the running back ( Le'Veon Bell), and a linebacker dropping to the inside hole, the Patriots can play man-coverage across the board.
There are risks here when assigning two defenders to Jones against the Falcons, given the layers of talent in Kyle Shanahan's offense. This is the No. 1 unit in the NFL, a group that averaged more than 33 points per game in the regular season and rolled through the NFC bracket with 80 combined points in two playoff wins. If you shape that game plan around Jones, well, you better have answers for? Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel, running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, the underrated tight ends, etc.
But limiting Jones -- you aren't going to shut him down completely -- has to be at the top of the Patriots' game plan. This guy is the LeBron James of the NFL. Size, speed, matchup ability: He has it all. He averaged 17.0 yards per catch during the regular season. Jones is going to get his; what you can't do is let him crush your soul as a defense.
Maybe the Patriots use the same plan they did in the regular season against the Texans with Logan Ryan playing trail-man versus DeAndre Hopkins (safety help over the top) and Butler matched up to the No. 2 ( Will Fuller).
I'd prefer to have Butler underneath to challenge Jones at the line, play physical football and roll that safety while you align in press-man across the board. Slowing down the Falcons starts with the secondary. You win on the perimeter against Jones, and the game gets a little easier.
2. Flex the formation on offense with base personnel
Why it's important: By using base or 21 personnel (2WR-1TE-2RB), the Patriots can flex/spread the formation to create inside matchups while keeping the Falcons' nickel personnel (and some of their speed) on the sideline.
How you do it: Against Atlanta's core defensive scheme -- Cover 3 (three-deep, four under) -- the goal is to target those inside throwing windows (seam routes) with underneath options who can find soft areas of the zone coverage. The Patriots can manufacture those matchups by widening the defense out of 21 personnel.
For starters, this keeps the Falcons' sub-package defensive backs and edge rushers on the bench. That's an advantage for the Patriots. Plus, New England and Brady can now go to work on the interior of the defense (linebackers) by moving Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan and Martellus Bennett inside to favorable matchup positions.
Check out this example I drew up with the Patriots in 21 personnel versus a static Cover 3 shell:
With the running back (H) and fullback/second RB (F) removed from the core of the formation (decoys), the cornerbacks (C) have to widen. That sets up the Patriots to target Hogan (X), Edelman (Z) and Bennett (Y). Those are three interchangeable pieces to expose the zone coverage. With Hogan and Bennett both running the inside seam route and Edelman on the underneath pivot/option route, Brady has three options (inside of the numbers). This allows Brady to move the free safety with his eyes and hit either seam route or throw the ball underneath to Edelman.
I do expect the Falcons to play more man-coverage after watching Brady shred Pittsburgh's zone looks in the AFC Championship Game (32-of-42 passing, 384 yards and three touchdowns). You can't sit in zone all day versus Brady and expect to slow down the Patriots' offense. He's too talented for that.
However, the key here is to force the hand of the Falcons. Do they stay in their base defense? If so, the Patriots have options. Reduce the formation to run the ball downhill, flex the formation to create those matchups or use the running backs ( Dion Lewis and James White) the way they did in Super Bowl XLIX against the Seattle Seahawks on flat/option routes versus linebackers. That was stealing -- and key to their comeback victory.
3. Chip Freeman and Coleman in the passing game
Why it's important: Allowing Freeman or Coleman to get clean releases out of the backfield puts the New England defense in an adverse situation given the versatility of Atlanta's running backs in the passing game.
How you do it: I would use McCourty or Patrick Chung to match up to the Falcons' running backs. Roll the safety down (like we saw in the example versus the Steelers) to play the flat routes, the wheel routes, etc. Plus, doing this would allow the Patriots to handle the multiple empty formations the Falcons are going to throw on the field Sunday. McCourty and Chung have the ability to play man-coverage against Freeman and Coleman, regardless of where they line up.
Even so, the Patriots cannot give Freeman and Coleman a clean release out of the backfield. That's bad football.
Take a look at this example from the Falcons' win over the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game.
This is a rub or pick concept, with the Falcons basically running off the defenders in coverage on crossing routes. That opens up the front side of the field and forces the linebacker in coverage ( Clay Matthews) match to Coleman in the flat. Notice how no one touches Coleman on his way to the flat? There's no way Matthews can make that play working through traffic caused by the rub/pick. This is easy, free money for the Falcons and a poor defensive plan for the Packers.
The goal for the Patriots is to continue their physical approach against the Falcons. Along with playing press-man, the ability to chip or re-direct Freeman and Coleman adds up over the course of four quarters. More important, it allows the Patriots to disrupt the release of the backs and the timing of the routes.
Rather than trying to get home off the edge, which is tough to do on a simple throw to the flat (ball is coming out quick), why not use a linebacker such as Rob Ninkovich or a defensive end like Chris Long to hit the running backs when they release out of the backfield?
This isn't a complicated game plan. It's a simple adjustment to ensure the matchups are tilted back in your favor against two players who can both break a game wide open. Limiting the production of Freeman and Coleman in the passing game is critical to the Patriots picking up another ring.
Three keys for the Falcons
Unleash LB Deion Jones as an interior blitzer
Why it's important: The Falcons' edge rushers, Vic Beasley Jr. and Dwight Freeney, need to play big on Sunday. But Jones' athleticism and speed can create havoc for Brady when the rookie linebacker attacks the interior gaps as an extra rusher.
How you do it: If you study Atlanta's regular-season tape, you won't find a lot of blitz schemes. In fact, the Falcons blitzed only 16.9 percent of the time (third lowest in the NFL). However, they have been much more aggressive this postseason, blitzing on 36 percent of defensive snaps.
Now, sending pressure at Brady can be tricky. Brady had a 90.4 Total QBR against the blitz in the regular season (second in the NFL), tossing 11 touchdowns with zero interceptions. Because of that, the Falcons could lean more on their front four by using twist stunts. This would allow Beasley or Freeney to come off the stunts as an interior rushers. That's where you want to target Brady with the pass-rush: up the middle. Take away his ability to maneuver in the pocket with those subtle movements he uses to step up, slide or throw the shoulder forward to beat standard edge pressure. He can do that all day.
It's also why I keep going back to Jones, because his natural ability is off the charts. I love his tape. He's a perfect fit for the Falcons' scheme because he moves like a strong safety on the field. So why can't the Falcons bring some "safe" five-man pressure and unleash Jones as an interior rusher? They can still play zone behind the blitz (three-deep, three-under) or straight man-coverage with a free safety over the top.
Here's an example of the pressure I'm talking about from the NFC Championship Game:
This is an A gap pressure from the Falcons, with Jones holding his disguise and rushing at the snap as the nose tackle moves on the outside stunt. That pulls the center to the twist side and opens up a clear lane for Jones to get downhill. That's where we see his athleticism as he immediately closes the distance to Aaron Rodgers to force a key third down stop. It's important to note: Jones' freakish 4.59 speed is what allows him to get home without crowding the line or tipping off Rodgers that he's coming. That will be key against Brady, who has the uncanny ability to punish defenses when he ?senses a blitz pre-snap.?
Yes, as I mentioned earlier, blitzing Brady is always a risk, but without bringing some form of pressure, my worry is he will have time to step up in the pocket and pick apart the Falcons' secondary. Maybe Atlanta shows the nickel blitzes they utilized to get hits on Rodgers in the NFC title game. Again, those were "safe" pressures; five-man schemes with man-coverage over the top and a safety in the middle of the field to protect the post.
The focus here, in my opinion, has to be similar to what we saw from the Texans' defense in the divisional round: Pressure up the gut versus Brady by attacking those A and B gaps. I like the idea of using Jones as a moveable piece to get home.
2. Test the communication skills of the Patriots' secondary in the red zone
Why it's important: The Falcons have to find a way to beat press-man inside the red zone. They can't settle for field goals on Sunday when they advance the ball into the plus 10-yard line. That gets you beat against Brady.
How you do it: Expect Shanahan to mix his looks with multiple stack or bunch alignments and levels concepts. These are some of Shanahan's go-to plays because they create natural pick situations off the release. That allows Ryan to target Jones (in space) on crossing routes, feed the ball to the running backs, hit Sanu in the open field or get the ball out to Gabriel with room to run.
This is a key inside of the deep red zone against a New England defense that led the NFL in points allowed per game (15.3) and ranked third in goal-to-go touchdown efficiency (59.1 percent).
Check out this example on Ryan's touchdown pass to Freeman against the Packers off the "follow" route out of a bunch/stack:
With Freeman offset (and aligned on the outside leg of the right tackle), the defense will identify this set as a bunch formation (three players close together). This allows the Falcons to release the tight end up the field on the corner route (pick), send Sanu underneath on the shallow cross and bring Freeman out on the angle route. That forces the safety in coverage to widen versus the initial stem of Freeman, which is where the natural pick occurs. Even with a quick close on the ball from the safety, Freeman establishes inside leverage and finishes this catch for a score.
The Patriots play the bunch and stack routes as well as any secondary in the NFL, and we all know the story with Butler's interception to close out the Super Bowl win over the Seahawks (stack route). This unit is so prepared. Jam the point and play a "banjo" technique (in and out coverage) versus a bunch, or align at different levels versus the stack.
But if you're the Falcons, you still have to test the Patriots' secondary with a ton of pre-snap movement (motions, shifts), and lean on those reduced wide receiver sets (stack, bunch) to test their communication skills. Can they win on the jam and match -- immediately -- at the second level to take away the multiple-level routes?
Remember, there is no time to recover as a defensive back in the red zone. If a defender loses leverage or takes a false step? That's six points.
3. Control the tempo with the run game
Why it's important: Keeping Brady and the Patriots' offense off the field as much as possible gives the Falcons the best chance to win, given New England's advantage versus Atlanta's defense. Sometimes it's that simple.
How you do it: The Falcons can't get too infatuated with the pass and forget about their run game. This unit averaged?120.5 yards per game and 4.58 yards per carry (both fifth in the NFL). Shanahan isn't afraid to run downhill power schemes with this group, but against the Patriots, I like the zone schemes more because of the multiple fronts the Falcons are going to see from New England's defense. This allows Atlanta to lean on the athletic ability of their offensive line to step play-side, combo block, then work up to the second level. Just create some daylight for Freeman or Coleman to stick that foot in the ground and get vertical.
Take a look at this example from Atlanta's divisional-round win over the Seahawks on the outside zone scheme:
On the outside zone, the running back has options. He can "bounce" the ball outside, hit the "bang" or cut the ball back on the "bend" to expose the over-pursuit of the linebackers. Here, Coleman reads the block off the right tackle, hits the "bang" and now is through the line and into the second level. That forces the defensive backs to make the tackle. When the opposing free safety becomes the primary run defender, the defense is in some real trouble.
The Patriots gave up an average of only 88.6 yards rushing during the regular season (third in the NFL) and they are one of the best overall tackling units I've studied this season. They win with physicality, technique and core fundamentals on defense. There are no free passes against Belichick's defense in the run game.
However, the ability of the Falcons to run the ball Sunday night will be a critical factor if they want to gain control of the flow of the game. The zone schemes do cater specifically to the skill sets of both Freeman and Coleman -- footwork, vision, speed through the hole. Plus, given the amount of play action Shanahan rolls out every game, getting Freeman and Coleman early touches will lead to more open windows for Ryan to sling the ball.
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