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What can Duke expect from freshman Jayson Tatum?
— -- Editor's note: The 2016-17 college basketball season will be the "Year of the Freshmen,"?featuring what could be the best class we've ever seen. Over the next two weeks, we will get familiar with the best of the best, examining who they are and where each of the top 10 prospects in the 2016 ESPN 100 came from.
Jayson Tatum has been among the elite players in the country for most of his high school career, dominating as a scoring wing at every level, from high school to AAU to USA Basketball. Hometown school? Saint Louis?made a strong effort to keep him home, but the pull of Duke was too much. Tatum ended up announcing his commitment to play for the Blue Devils at the Nike Peach Jam in July 2015. Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski will expect plenty of points right away.
Scoring ability
Tatum was one of the most dangerous scorers in high school basketball throughout his career and only became more difficult to defend once he became a senior and adjusted his 3-point stroke. He averaged 21 points per game on the Nike EYBL circuit as a rising senior and also put up 13.9 points for USA Basketball on the U19 National Team.
"He's got a really advanced skill set, more so than you see in almost any high school player that you evaluate," one college coach said. "His combination of fluidity and size on the perimeter is very rare. Over the course of the last year, he's really improved himself as a 3-point shooter. He's smart about the way he looks for his offense. Not a million dribbles, he knows that's not a strength. One, two dribble pull-ups, he gets to his spots.
"I just think that when you watch high-level players, guys that play the wing position at the NBA level, that's what they look like. Six-foot-eight, smooth, perimeter skill set. That's what you see in Jayson Tatum."
The one thing that stands out about Tatum is his efficiency on the offensive end -- and that's something that improved once he fixed his outside shot. At one point, he was heavily reliant on his midrange jumper, which turned into fadeaways and step-backs. Tatum can make those shots, but forcing defenders to guard him 20 feet from the basket helped him cut down on bad shots.
"He's an effortless scorer," one NBA scout said after watching Tatum practice. "He can go off the dribble, both right and left. He shot the 3 extremely well. ... He's extremely efficient. Took 25 shots throughout the practice, and one of them was a bad miss. He shot the daylights out of it."
Adjustments on defense
As is the case for most freshmen, it's the other side of the court where Tatum will need to improve.
"Where the lack of athleticism is going to hurt him is on the defensive end," an NBA Western Conference scout said. "He's got a lot of work to do defensively."
Tatum was one of the bigger players on his team at both the high school and AAU level and rarely had to defend explosive wing players who could get by him consistently. Being close to the rim, Tatum was one of the better wing rebounders according to pure numbers, but Duke's man-to-man defense will test him early.
"It could be a little bit of an issue for him," one coach said. "If you're playing on a traditional high school team like he did ... there were some smaller guards. For the most part, he wasn't guarding perimeter players. His experience guarding out in space is less so than guarding around the bucket. Duke tries to stress aggressive man-to-man defense on the perimeter, denial on the perimeter. They have the mentality of a team that pressures you, they'll extend a little bit. That'll be an adjustment. But there are some other guys who will take the best or second-best scorer on the perimeter, and he could end up with the third option, which will allow him to float a bit more."
Fitting into the offense
Tatum was the clear go-to option for his high school and AAU teams, and the offense generally revolved around him. He will undoubtedly be the most skilled offensive player in Duke's program, but with guys like Grayson Allen and Frank Jackson and Luke Kennard and Harry Giles, Tatum won't have to shoulder the load -- and could even be a second option at times.
"That will be an adjustment for him," one college coach said. "At Chaminade [College Prep], he was accustomed to taking pretty much any shot he wants, ball in his hands a lot. Whether initiating offense or sets being run for him, he knew he would get 20 to 25 shots a game. That's an adjustment for anyone. Especially joining a team that is preseason No. 1. But his talent level is such that he will be a featured player in Duke's offense, despite being a freshman."
Duke has a multitude of injuries up front -- including Giles' uncertain status and Marques Bolden suffering a leg injury this week. That could force Tatum to play down low in some small-ball situations. Coaches who scouted him in high school think that would be a nightmare for opponents.
"Guys are less comfortable guarding him one-on-one. They'll be late to him a lot, so he'll get a lot of rhythm jump shots," one said. "He has an ability to defensive rebound, push it end-to-end, create for himself. At the college level, he'll be a really tough matchup. There's nobody that can really stop him."
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