Is Dwight Howard an upgrade over Al Horford for the Hawks?
— -- The Atlanta Hawks reportedly reached an agreement Friday with center Dwight Howard on a three-year, $70.5 million deal, then later agreed to re-sign forward Kent Bazemore to a big four-year, $70-million contract -- indicating that star center Al Horford is likely gone (unless Atlanta can open up cap space in a trade).
So, is Howard an upgrade on Horford or a downgrade for the Hawks?
Fitting Howard on the court
Under the assumption he's replacing Horford, Howard is actually an upgrade in at least one key area: His defensive rebounding will be a welcome addition to an Atlanta team that has historically struggled on the glass.
Still, Horford is probably the better all-around defender at this stage of his career because of his superior mobility. He also was Howard's equal last year as a rim protector, though Howard has been far better defending the paint in the past while winning three Defensive Player of the Year awards.
And it's hard to make the case that Howard would be an offensive upgrade. Atlanta would trade pick-and-pops involving Horford, who added 3-point range on those plays last season (making 88 total at a solid 34.4 percent clip), for pick-and-rolls with a reluctant Howard, who'd rather be posting up. He'll have to develop chemistry with new Hawks starting point guard Dennis Schroder, who tends to look for his shot rather than the roll man compared to most pick-and-roll ballhandlers.
If Howard thinks he's going to get more opportunities to showcase his deteriorating post skills under Mike Budenholzer than he did in Houston, he's likely to be disappointed. Atlanta ranked 26th in the percentage of plays that ended with a shot, a shooting foul or a turnover on a post-up (5.7 percent), per Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats -- five spots behind Howard's Rockets (6.4 percent).
It's difficult to justify more post-up opportunities for Howard given that he averaged just .82 points per play on them last season, according to Synergy tracking, which ranked him 51st of the 64 players who finished at least 100 post-ups.
Howard's value
Of course, it's somewhat unfair to compare Howard to Horford. If indeed the latter is leaving via free agency, it's because the Hawks were unwilling to pay him enough or simply got beat by other teams, not because they preferred Howard.
Of the remaining options at center, Howard was probably the best replacement for Horford in terms of overall ability. And compared to the lavish deals handed out to centers so far in free agency, Howard came relatively cheaply.
Consider that the Hawks paid Howard less than the New York Knicks will reportedly give Joakim Noah ($72 million, albeit over four years instead of three) and barely more than the Los Angeles Lakers will apparently give Timofey Mozgov over four years ($64 million). While a two-year deal would have been ideal protection as Howard ages and deals with the back and knee injuries that limited him in Houston, three years isn't a bad risk. And overall, the contract values Howard almost exactly what my multiyear projections suggest he'll be worth over the next three years ($68 million).
So if Atlanta knew Horford was likely to leave, the team could have done a lot worse coming up with a replacement than Howard.
