The Earl Thomas dilemma: NFL execs explore what's next
SEATTLE -- No Seattle Seahawks story from 2017 created bigger waves than when six-time Pro Bowl free safety Earl Thomas approached Dallas Cowboys coach Jason Garrett following a Christmas Eve game.
"If y'all have the chance, come get me," Thomas told Garrett at the time.
Thomas' frustration with his contract situation has only grown from there, and the story is back on center stage with the 1-1 Cowboys visiting the 0-2 Seahawks in Week 3.
In a perfect world, Thomas would play out the final year of his $40 million contract, the Seahawks would reward him with an even richer extension and together they would celebrate many more productive years together.
That could still happen, but the Seahawks' world is not as perfect as it seemed a couple years ago. At best, this is a team in transition. At worst, Seattle is plummeting toward the NFC basement. Where the Seahawks actually fit into the league hierarchy could help them decide how to proceed with one of the great players in franchise history.
Should Seattle trade Thomas? Re-sign him? Let him walk in the offseason? Use the franchise tag to buy time? And what about Thomas at age 29? Is he still as good as ever, or is the consensus that he's slipping? How well should we expect him to play in the future, and for how long?
These are difficult questions, which is why I've enlisted evaluators and decision makers around the league to help determine what the Seahawks should do next.
Where Thomas and the Seahawks stand right now
It has been a bizarre week on the Thomas front.
Thomas did not practice Wednesday, but there was no injury to report. He did practice Thursday, and all was assumed to be well -- as well as things could be under the circumstances. Then came Friday and Thomas was on the sideline. There was again no injury to report, only vague comments from coach Pete Carroll suggesting Thomas had something personal that needed to be worked through.
Sunday morning, news broke via ESPN's Chris Mortensen that the Seahawks were considering a hefty fine against Thomas for conduct detrimental to the team, the latest sign this relationship could be beyond repair.
Thomas is earning $8.5 million in salary this season during the final year of a four-year extension. The deal made Thomas the NFL's highest-paid safety at the time. Others have passed him since then, notably Eric Berry of the Kansas City Chiefs, who was 28 when he signed a six-year, $78 million deal in 2017. Berry suffered a torn Achilles tendon in his first game after signing that deal. He has not played since.
Given that Thomas will be approaching $56 million in career earnings by season's end, it's difficult to argue that Seattle has an obligation to extend his deal right now. There are still reasons Thomas is justified to push for a new deal sooner rather than later.
Teams usually tread carefully before handing out third contracts to non-quarterbacks who are typically past their physical primes.
In an effort to sustain an all-time great defense, the Seahawks entered into a third contract with strong safety Kam Chancellor before last season, giving him $19 million in guarantees. The team lost that bet when a neck injury effectively ended Chancellor's career last season.
If you are the team that gave guaranteed money to Chancellor and also lost a high-earning, over-30 defensive mainstay, Cliff Avril, to a career-ending neck injury at about the same time, you're naturally guarding against something similar happening again, especially now that the defense has entered a transition phase.
If you are Thomas, who watched his teammates' careers end abruptly, you naturally want to secure the financial guarantees that Chancellor and Berry secured. If the Seahawks were willing to extend Chancellor and other aging stars, including the since-traded Michael Bennett, who secured $9 million in new money as part of a December 2016 extension, why shouldn't Thomas expect similar treatment? Thomas is arguably playing as well as Chancellor or Bennett were playing when they signed new deals.
"It's a weird thing," a salary-cap manager for another team said. "They probably don't want to commit to Earl because they have been burned by the guys they gave third contracts to. Every team does bad deals, and when a deal burns you, you figure out why and say, 'What do we need to incorporate into our thought process?'"
How to decide whether to trade Thomas
Thomas, middle linebacker Bobby Wagner and outside linebacker K.J. Wright are the only defensive starters remaining from the Seahawks' most recent Super Bowl team (2014 season). Chancellor, Bennett, Avril, Richard Sherman and Byron Maxwell were in that Super Bowl lineup against New England. All five left the team this offseason.
If this is a rebuilding season and Thomas is going to leave in free agency anyway, why not get something in return for him before the 4 p.m. ET trade deadline on Oct. 30? Seattle is obviously better on defense with Thomas, but if Week 1 was any indication, Thomas is not going to make this a great defense. The pass-rush rotation isn't robust enough, the linebackers Seattle is building around are not healthy and the secondary appears good, not great.
"It comes down to, what is the value of the offers you are getting versus how competitive are you to win this year?" an exec from another team said. "If you are being offered a fifth-round pick and you have a real chance for the playoffs, then it is a no-brainer to keep the guy. But if you are getting a higher pick [offered] and you are not expecting to get to the playoffs and are building for the future, you might as well get your pick now instead of hoping you get a third- or fourth-round comp a year later."
This exec said he doesn't think the Seahawks will contend for the playoffs this season. Seattle might disagree, but at the very least, it's fair to say this Seahawks team faces longer odds than its recent predecessors. Last week, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook dropped the Seahawks' chances for winning the Super Bowl from 20-1 to 80-1, same as the odds for Cleveland, Indianapolis and Oakland.
Let's say the oddsmakers are overly pessimistic. Let's say a Seattle defense with Thomas could remain competitive. Let's say the defense would be less competitive without Thomas. How far can the Seahawks afford to slip on that side of the ball while remaining competitive? Can quarterback Russell Wilson make up the difference?
Seattle ranks second to Denver in ESPN's defensive efficiency metric since the 2012 season, when Wilson became the starter. The table shows the Seahawks with a 49-6-1 record in games when their defensive efficiency falls in the 60th percentile or better. The record is .500 in games when the defense has performed in the 30th to 59th percentile. That is better than the .416 win rate for the league as a whole, but it's not enough to be a contender. And in the 17 games since 2012 when Seattle's defense was truly awful, the Seahawks' record is just 4-13 (.235).
"They can't afford to lose Earl," a personnel director said. "I mean, they are not very good personnel-wise anymore. You hate to say that, but that is just reality."
Potential timing of a trade
Dallas has been the team linked to a potential Thomas trade most frequently. If the Cowboys were to acquire Thomas, the most likely timing would seem to be after Week 3 and before the Oct. 30 trade deadline. The Cowboys visit the Seahawks in Week 3, and Seattle presumably would not want him making plays for Dallas at CenturyLink Field in his Cowboys debut.
However, the fact that Thomas was overheard telling Cowboys coach Jason Garrett to "come get me" following Seattle's Week 16 victory at Dallas last season could work against a deal.
"If you send him where he wants to go, you send the message, 'Hold out and you'll get what you want,'" a former GM said. "I wouldn't want to trade him to Dallas and have him get paid a bunch of money and I only get a second or third for him."
Seattle has a Week 7 bye before an Oct. 28 game in Week 8. The trade deadline falls two days later, after the Seahawks' seventh game of the season. The team should have a good idea by then what kind of season this is going to be.
Impediments to a trade
If the Seahawks trade Thomas, the move will be seen as confirmation that the team is in rebuilding mode. That can be a tough sell to fans, players and ownership in some cases. On the other end of any trade, the team acquiring Thomas would have to be comfortable giving up something for him in addition to satisfying Thomas' demands for a long-term contract.
"Part of the problem is, when you give up the pick, you are not talking about a rental like in baseball," an exec said. "Teams want to know they can get a contract done, because in the GM's mind, that draft pick is a possible Pro Bowl player, until you actually pick a guy and he becomes nobody. At this point, the longer it goes, the more demanding Earl is going to be, because he would probably rather get to free agency where he gets to choose his team."
_1.jpg)
Thomas' age is another factor. He'll be 30 next offseason. After starting all 96 games over his first six seasons, Thomas missed five games to a broken leg in 2016 and two to a hamstring injury last season. The broken leg was a freak injury suffered during a collision with Chancellor, not something that should carry long-term risk.
"He has still played a ton of snaps, and that is a lot of wear and tear," an exec said. "He might have to learn a new defense, depending who traded for him. There are a lot of factors, especially what his expectation for a contract is. Those are impediments. As an organization, you also have to be willing to live with the criticism of, 'You only got that for him?'"
Thomas' trade value
The Cowboys offered a second-round pick for Thomas within the past few weeks, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. If a second-round pick is the best offer Seattle has gotten for Thomas, then that is the best approximation of his value until someone offers more.
"The trade offers that come in for the majority of players are way lower than the public thinks," an exec said. "There is all this, 'He should be worth X,' and the thought process is correct, but some of these GMs, you can't get them to take the draft trading charts seriously. They think they can outperform all this data that you see."
The Seahawks have a history of trading their most accomplished safeties. They traded future Hall of Famer Kenny Easley to the Phoenix Cardinals for quarterback Kelly Stouffer in 1988, a deal that was amended when a physical examination showed Easley was suffering from kidney failure, which ended his career. Eight years later, Seattle traded team captain Eugene Robinson to the Green Bay Packers for defensive end Matt LaBounty. Robinson had 42 interceptions for Seattle from 1985 to '95, second in the NFL to Ronnie Lott's 46 over that 11-year span.
Immediate impact
It took 10 defensive snaps following Thomas' holdout for the playmaking free safety to deliver 16 percentage points of win probability to the Seahawks via an interception off the Denver Broncos' Case Keenum in Week 1. The play represented the largest positive swing in win expectation for the Seahawks' defense all game, evidence of the value Thomas can provide.
These sorts of moments populate Thomas' career.
The Seahawks probably would not have outlasted the Houston Texans by a 41-38 count last season without Thomas' pick-six interception off Deshaun Watson, a result that produced a 26 percent shift in win probability. They probably do not claim a 26-24 victory over the Atlanta Falcons two seasons ago without Thomas picking off Matt Ryan's pass to Julio Jones at a critical juncture (another 26 percent boost).
"You are usually either a thumper or interceptor, and if you are both, you go to the Hall of Fame like Ronnie Lott," a defensive coach said. "Earl Thomas is rare because he makes the [pass breakup], makes the interception and knocks the f--- out of people. And what I love about him is, he plays so hard -- harder than the other top safeties, in my opinion. He is just really rare."
The table ranks the plays Thomas has made for Seattle by how much win probability they produced for the Seahawks. Five of these plays were made since 2016:
A great player in decline?
The interception Thomas made against Denver helped make him the NFL's highest-graded safety for Week 1, according to Pro Football Focus. However, personnel evaluators polled for this column thought Thomas' level of play had slipped over the past two seasons. They see him as a very good player who was once a great player, now more a Pro Bowler than All-Pro.
There were some concerns about Thomas' long-term staying power based on his relatively small frame (5-foot-10, 202 pounds).
Mike Giddings, president of the Proscout evaluation service that has supplied player ratings to NFL clients since the 1970s, said Thomas was an "elite blue" performer every season from 2012 to '15, ranking among the top six at his position, including No. 1 twice. Proscout's evaluations had Thomas losing a step prior to breaking his leg in 2016. Thomas' speed, range and change-of-direction ability have not returned to their peak levels, according to these evaluations.
"History shows the smaller safeties descend quicker, especially when they lose a step or are injured," Giddings said, referring to players such as Eugene Wilson, Bob Sanders, Jairus Byrd and Tyrann Mathieu. "Overall, smaller guys can match up via their 'blue' speed and change of direction. When they lose it, they no longer have their advantage trait -- think of Chris Johnson as a running back compared to Adrian Peterson."
An analytics director cautioned that plenty of smaller players have succeeded over time, from Maurice Jones-Drew to Wes Welker and others. Indeed, the two best players on the Seahawks might be two guys considered undersized for their positions, Thomas and Russell Wilson. This analytics director also thought there was a self-fulfilling aspect to NFL body types, in that personnel evaluators select which body types earn spots on rosters.
Meanwhile, the personnel director who thought Seattle could not afford to lose Thomas agreed with Giddings that the six-time Pro Bowler and three-time first-team All-Pro had slipped some.
"Safety is such a position that it is hard to justify trading much for it," this director said. "Earl is one of the few that you would think about it, but it's just hard. The way he is playing, he is going to be able to play [well]. That is not a problem. Does he look different? Yeah, he does. He is definitely not as explosive as he was. There is tightness to his game now. You can visibly see some decline, but he is still a f---ing good player."
So what if Thomas has declined a little?
It's reasonable to expect some decline as a player ages. The key question for the next team entering into a long-term deal with Thomas is whether he's likely to remain on the field as an impact player, if not necessarily a transcendent one.
Thomas is one of 12 safeties since the 1967 AFL-NFL merger to earn first-team All-Pro honors three times in his first eight seasons, according to Pro Football Reference. The table ranks these 12 especially elite safeties by how many starts they made after their eighth seasons. We also see how many Pro Bowls and first-team All-Pro honors these players earned in their first eight seasons versus all their remaining seasons:
Rod Woodson and Lott head the list. Both entered the NFL as cornerbacks before transitioning to safety. Both were 6 feet tall and about the same weight as Thomas. While those two combined for 206 starts, eight Pro Bowls and four first-team All-Pro selections after their eighth seasons, the others whose careers are completed had two or three additional full seasons as starters once they reached the point where Thomas is at now.
Also since 1967, 21 safeties have earned Pro Bowl honors at least once after their eighth seasons. Those safeties started between 65 and 148 games after their eighth seasons, led by Charles Woodson (148), Eugene Robinson (126), Rod Woodson (121), Brian Dawkins (112) and John Lynch (104). Other notables on the list include Hall of Famers Paul Krause (94), Mel Blount (88), Lott (85), Aeneas Williams (80), Ken Houston (76) and Emmitt Thomas (65).
"They say safeties play on smarts, too," an exec said. "I would like to figure out some way to pay Earl if I were Seattle, but it has turned into a pissing match, so I don't think you can do it. Plus, is he willing to compromise? I don't think he is willing to do that, either."
Predictions all over the map
Back in April, when Pete Carroll was asked about Sherman defying coaches and Bennett reportedly reading books in meetings, the Seahawks' usually cheery coach said there are times when players can no longer "hang with what's expected" for whatever reasons.
"And the best thing I can tell you," Carroll said at the time, "is that they're not here."
Thomas' holdout and the lingering hard feelings he has expressed make him an obvious candidate to follow Sherman, Bennett and the others out of town.
"If he hadn't gone about it the way he has gone about it, could they have paid him?" a former GM asked. "I would say maybe so."
One exec used the phrase "total conjecture" to describe his prediction that Seattle would use the franchise tag for Thomas in the offseason. Another exec thought it seemed problematic if the Seahawks went that route with a player who seems so unhappy, contending that it would amount to "giving up" on chemistry in the locker room.
"If it's me, you just line up and play him like anybody else, as if he didn't hold out," a former GM said. "As an organization, you move beyond this, show you are bigger than it. You already paid him a lot of money. The next guy comes along, he sees what is going to happen when he holds out. He can hold out, come in, play and we move on. Be fair. Don't get angry."
Thomas made it clear last season that Dallas would be a preferred destination, but with the relationship between Thomas and the Seahawks strained, how eager will the organization be to grant Thomas his wish?
"I think they are going to be pretty stubborn on this one," a GM said.
