Early surprising success was worst thing for Hornacek, Suns
— -- Two years ago, during the first season for Jeff Hornacek as head coach and Ryan McDonough as general manager, the Phoenix Suns caught the league off guard with their success. Expected to be one of the NBA's worst teams, the Suns instead won 48 games and tied the best record ever for a lottery team.
With the benefit of hindsight, it's now clear that Phoenix's surprising success was the worst thing that could have happened both for Hornacek and the organization as a whole. While Hornacek survived Sunday's purge of his coaching staff that saw assistants Mike Longabardi and Jerry Sichting lose their jobs, he could be next out the door. And the way that Hornacek's first season rushed the rebuilding process looks like the primary culprit.
The tank that wasn't
Join me back in October 2013. Lorde was atop the charts, Stephen Curry had never been an All-Star and Phoenix was expected to be one of the league's worst teams. In fact, after they traded starting center Marcin Gortat during the preseason, the over/under line for the Suns (20.5 wins) was nearly as bad as that for the Philadelphia 76ers (17.5). Phoenix and Philadelphia were the two faces of NBA tanking entering the 2013-14 season.
From there, of course, the paths of the Suns and Sixers diverged dramatically. While Philadelphia lived up (or down) to expectations, Phoenix found a surprising recipe for success led by the backcourt of Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe. Hornacek got the most out of unheralded young talents such as Mason Plumlee, Gerald Green and the Morris twins. Dragic won the NBA's Most Improved Player award and Green and Markieff Morris also finished in the top 10 in the voting. Meanwhile, Hornacek finished behind only Gregg Popovich in the balloting for coach of the year.
After the 2013-14 season, the Suns' future appeared bright. But a promising 2014-15 campaign was ruined by Dragic's trade request. Following a 28-20 start, Phoenix lost 23 of its final 34 games to slip out of the playoff picture. And now, at 12-20, the Suns are on pace for just 31 wins -- far closer to the 25 they won in 2012-13 before Hornacek's arrival than the 48 they won in his first season.
Worse yet, Phoenix's win-now moves and disgruntled players have ripped apart the team's promising young core.
Promising young Suns now only a memory
Of the nine players who played at least 1,000 minutes for the 2013-14 Suns, just three remain: Bledsoe, Morris and 30-year-old small forward P.J. Tucker. And Morris' days in the Valley of the Sun are surely numbered after his own public trade request last summer, an extended period on the bench and a recent two-game suspension for throwing a towel that hit Hornacek.
Phoenix has added some young talent. Rookie Devin Booker, the league's youngest player at age 19, has made nearly 60 percent of his 3-point attempts. Second-year forward T.J. Warren looks like a professional scorer. And guard Brandon Knight, acquired at last season's trade deadline, just turned 24 and has demonstrated this season that he can thrive in the same backcourt as Bledsoe.
Elsewhere on the roster, however, there are more questions than answers. Sadly, that now includes Bledsoe. While there is no questioning his ability, Bledsoe's health is a concern. Saturday's meniscus injury was the third of his NBA career. He previously suffered meniscus injuries twice to his right knee and now this one to his left knee. In the long term, the missing meniscus could sap the athleticism that makes Bledsoe a special talent.
Less than six months after signing Tyson Chandler, in part to help sell free agent LaMarcus Aldridge before he chose the San Antonio Spurs, the Suns would probably like to have a gift receipt.
Playing alongside guards who drive to score rather than to set up teammates, Chandler has had a tough time taking advantage of his finishing ability. He's shooting just 48.1 percent from the field, down from 66.6 percent a season ago and his worst shooting percentage in more than a decade. While Chandler has still been the team's best rim protector, Hornacek frequently finished games with an undersized frontcourt of power forwards Jon Leuer and Mirza Teletovic to create additional spacing.
Remember, Phoenix was supposed to get value from Chandler now to compensate for the fact that his four-year contract will pay him $26-plus million in 2017-18 and 2018-19, when he will be 35 and 36, respectively. Declining athleticism could be a major issue for Chandler in future years. Worse yet, he plays the same position as one of the Suns' young prospects, center Alex Len, who has averaged just 18.8 minutes per game largely as a reserve. That's more than fellow 2013 first-round pick Archie Goodwin, who has played just 168 minutes total.
Before the season, Chad Ford and I ranked Phoenix 22nd in Insider's future power rankings. While the Suns could create max-level cap space next summer, their chances of convincing a top player to join a lottery team seem remote.
Where now for Phoenix?
Changing coaches is unlikely to solve the Suns' problems. Hornacek wasn't able to get the most out of his talent as he did in 2013-14 and struggled to control the emotions of the Morris twins. But he was done no favors by McDonough, who overcrowded the roster with point guards last season and extended the Morris twins despite knowing their volatile personalities.
Ultimately, Phoenix's uncertain future probably owes most to ownership. Since losing Bryan Colangelo to the Toronto Raptors a decade ago, Suns chairman Robert Sarver has cycled through a series of decision-makers in the front office: Mike D'Antoni, Steve Kerr, Lance Blanks and now McDonough.
Before McDonough's arrival, the admittedly impatient Sarver resisted the idea of rebuilding. Getting so close to the playoffs in 2013-14 meant abandoning the slower process of adding young talent to the roster McDonough intended to pursue. As he explained to Zach Lowe over the summer, McDonough attempted to win now without sacrificing the future. By trying to achieve two competing goals, Phoenix was successful in neither one.
Alas, the Suns might not have a choice about winning the rest of the season. With Bledsoe expected out until the All-Star break, Phoenix will have a tough time staying in the race for the eighth seed in the Western Conference despite how weak the competition looks.
ESPN's real plus-minus rates Bledsoe the Suns' best player at 4.2 points per 100 possessions better than league averages. His likely replacements -- Booker (minus-3.0), Goodwin (minus-2.7), Ronnie Price (minus-0.3) and Sonny Weems (minus-2.4) all rate worse than league average, most dramatically so. The drop-off could take Phoenix from a slightly below-average team with rough luck in close games (the Suns have been outscored by just 1.7 points per game, ninth in the West) to near the bottom of the conference for the next few weeks.
So ready or not, Phoenix may be testing its luck in the lottery -- two years behind schedule.
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