Eliminate all but Bubba at the Masters
— -- The 2015 edition of the Masters comes in with no shortage of storylines.
Will Rory McIlroy regain his form for a run at a career Grand Slam and a third straight major? Can a suddenly-outside-the-world's-top-100 Tiger Woods stick around for the weekend, let alone compete? Can Bubba Watson win a second straight green jacket and third in four years? Is it time for a young gun to break through, a la Jordan Spieth or Patrick Reed?
Or, who will The Eliminator pick to win this thing? Maybe you're not as interested in that, but you've come this far, so let's walk through it.
Here's the methodology. A lot of experts, pundits and amateurs are going to just pick a winner this week. This method picks losers -- 97 of them to be exact -- by using a series of historical statistics and trends. The one player left standing, by process of elimination, is the Masters champion.
Let's get the ball rolling (with a sand wedge-esque backspin) with this stat. Over the last 76 years, only one player has won the Masters in his first visit to Augusta. That was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. We'll take out the 20 first-timers in this year's field.
But even more experience is needed. In the last 68 years, only two players have even won in one of their first two Masters starts: Zoeller and Charl Schwartzel in 2011. Let's also take out the 15 players who are only making their second Masters start this year, including Spieth, Reed and last week's Houston Open winner, J.B. Holmes.
Recent history points to needing some success at last year's Masters. Each of the last 17 champions made the cut in the prior year's Masters. The last player to win after not making the previous year's cut was Woods in 1997. The remaining field is trimmed from 63 to 33, taking out Woods, Phil Mickelson and Dustin Johnson, among many other contenders.
It's been awhile since a European has won the Masters. You have to go all the way back to Jose Maria Olazabal in 1999 to find the last. That's a 15-year drought for Europeans, so we'll eliminate the 13 remaining, including McIlroy and Henrik Stenson, the top two players in the world.
Twenty players still remain, but now we play the age game. There hasn't been a 40-year-old winner at the Masters since Mark O'Meara in 1998. That's 16 straight under 40. Eight more are taken out, most notably Jim Furyk. We're down to a dozen.
The recent trend at majors is elite players taking it down. Each of the last nine majors have been won by a player ranked 28th or better in the World Golf Rankings. That eliminates the remaining Cinderella stories, guys like Russell Henley and Kevin Streelman, as we're down to the final six.
I like a player who comes in hot. Each of the last six majors had been won by a player who had a top-four finish in one of his last two PGA TOUR events. My condolences to Jason Day, Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler, Matt Kuchar and Bill Haas, but they just missed the cut.
If you've been following along at home, you've figured out that this method likes Bubba Watson to capture another green jacket this weekend, giving him a closetful.
Remember, the numbers don't lie.
The Eliminator: Step-by-Step
1. Only one player in the last 76 years has won the Masters in his first start (none in the last 35 years): 20 eliminated, 78 remaining.
Players Eliminated:
Erik Compton
Corey Conners
Matias Dominguez
James Hahn
Brian Harman
Scott Harvey
Morgan Hoffmann
Brooks Koepka
Anirban Lahiri
Shane Lowry
Byron Meth
Anthony Murdaca
Bradley Neil
Seung-yul Noh
Robert Streb
Brendon Todd
Cameron Tringale
Bernd Wiesberger
Danny Willett
Gunn Yang
2. Only two players in the last 68 years have won the Masters within their first two starts in the event: 15 eliminated, 63 remaining.
Players Eliminated:
Jonas Blixt
Victor Dubuisson
Matt Every
Stephen Gallacher
Charley Hoffman
J.B. Holmes
Billy Horschel
Mikko Ilonen
Chris Kirk
Joost Luiten
Ben Martin
Patrick Reed
Jordan Spieth
Kevin Stadler
Jimmy Walker
3. The last 17 Masters winners played in and made the cut in the previous year's Masters: 30 eliminated, 33 remaining.
Players Eliminated:
Sang-Moon Bae
Keegan Bradley
Angel Cabrera
Paul Casey
Ben Crane
Ben Crenshaw
Luke Donald
Jason Dufner
Ernie Els
Sergio Garcia
Branden Grace
Padraig Harrington
Trevor Immelman
Dustin Johnson
Zach Johnson
Marc Leishman
Hideki Matsuyama
Graeme McDowell
Phil Mickelson
Ryan Moore
Kevin Na
Geoff Ogilvy
Mark O'Meara
Ryan Palmer
Charl Schwartzel
Webb Simpson
Camilo Villegas
Tom Watson
Tiger Woods
Ian Woosnam
4. No European has won the Masters in the last 15 years: 13 eliminated, 20 remaining.
Players Eliminated:
Thomas Bjorn
Darren Clarke
Jamie Donaldson
Miguel Angel Jimenez
Martin Kaymer
Bernhard Langer
Sandy Lyle
Rory McIlroy
Jose Maria Olazabal
Ian Poulter
Justin Rose
Henrik Stenson
Lee Westwood
5. No player has won the Masters at 40 or older since 1998: eight eliminated, 12 remaining
Players Eliminated:
Fred Couples
Jim Furyk
Thongchai Jaidee
Larry Mize
John Senden
Vijay Singh
Steve Stricker
Mike Weir
6. The last nine majors have won been by a player 28th or better in the World Golf Rankings: six eliminated, six remaining.
Players Eliminated:
Russell Henley
Hunter Mahan
Louis Oosthuizen
Brandt Snedeker
Kevin Streelman
Gary Woodland
7. The last six majors have been won by a player with a top-four finish in one of his last two PGA TOUR starts: five eliminated, one remaining.
Players Eliminated:
Jason Day
Rickie Fowler
Bill Haas
Matt Kuchar
Adam Scott
Your champion: Bubba Watson
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