Extra rest gives Aggies edge over Tide

— -- When Alabama heads to College Station on Saturday, it will find itself in an all-too-familiar position: facing an opponent that was idle the week before.

Call it a conspiracy theory or bad scheduling luck, but since Nick Saban took over as Alabama's head coach, the Crimson Tide have faced more teams with a rest advantage than any other team in the country.

Alabama fans don't need to be reminded of the 2010 season, when the Tide's final six SEC opponents were coming off byes, but the trend goes well beyond one season. Since the start of 2007, Alabama has played 25 games against teams with at least a five-day rest advantage (games in which Alabama's opponent had a bye and it did not), 10 more than any other team in the nation.

Already this season, the Tide played (and beat) Louisiana-Monroe after it had a bye. By season's end, the Tide's total games with a significant rest disadvantage since 2007 will rise to 27, meaning they play three such games in 2015, tied for the most in the FBS.

This trend does not go the other way; Alabama has only had the rest advantage in four games since 2007, fewest in the SEC, resulting in the Tide averaging 1.4 fewer days of rest than their opponents over the past nine years (nearly a full day less than any other team in the country).

After the 2010 season, Alabama fans complained about the scheduling injustice, which prompted the SEC to strive to ensure that no team had to face more than three conference opponents coming off a bye in a season.

Has it made a difference? Alabama is the only SEC team that will face exactly three conference opponents after an off week in 2015 (including LSU in a game in which Alabama also has a bye) and has faced five such teams in the previous two years combined.

Does rest matter?

When asked about Alabama's opponents' exorbitant number of bye weeks in 2010, Saban responded, "Everybody out there assumes that having a bye week is an advantage. I've always answered that question by saying, 'I don't know if it's an advantage or disadvantage.'"

This offseason, ESPN's Analytics Team, the creators of ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), set out to answer this question in hopes of improving its game prediction model.

Based on statistical modeling of nine years of historical data, every 5.5 days of rest advantage over your opponent is worth about one point per game. That's controlling for how good each team is (measured by FPI) and the site of the game.

Whether it is the extra week of rest, extra week to prepare or extra week to get healthy, byes matter. It's important to note that byes matter more for certain teams than others, so how have the bye weeks impacted Alabama?

How have byes impacted Alabama?

Based on FPI's game prediction model, Alabama's rest disadvantage has cost the Tide about 0.5 wins since 2007. That might not seem like much, but it is based on the assumption that all teams are impacted equally when facing opponents with extra rest.

Evidence suggests that the Tide might be impacted more than others; six of Alabama's 14 regular-season losses under Saban have come when Alabama's opponents have had an extra week of rest. Three more came in games in which both Alabama and its opponent were coming off byes.

Add in a few close wins in games during which they were significant favorites (such as a one-point win over Arkansas in 2014 and a two-point win over Tennessee in 2009), and it appears the Tide might be impacted more than other teams by a rest disadvantage.

Although it's an overstatement to conclude that Alabama lost certain games because of rest, it is one factor that might have contributed to the outcome of these games.

What does this mean for Alabama versus Texas A&M?

ESPN's Football Power Index projects that Texas A&M has a 56 percent chance to beat Alabama at home. The main reason that Texas A&M is favored is that the game is in College Station, but the rest differential is a factor included in the game prediction model.

If Alabama and Texas A&M were facing off with equal rest, the Aggies would have a 52 percent chance to win; and if the Tide were coming into the game with the extra week of rest, they would be favored by FPI.

Kevin Sumlin is 5-2 in his career as a head coach in games with extra rest, but he does not have much of a sample in SEC conference games (1-1). With Texas A&M's up-tempo offense, it would appear that the added week to get healthy would only help the Aggies' offense.

Nonetheless, FPI projects that Alabama still has a 44 percent chance to win the game. If they pull out the victory, the Tide will be rewarded with a road win for their résumé, a 3-1 conference record and momentum heading into their Oct. 24 matchup against Tennessee -- who (you guessed it) will be coming off a bye week.