Fantasy Fallout: Record day for quarterbacks
— -- Quarterbacks continue to up the ante, statistically speaking.
Week 12 featured 13 quarterbacks scoring at least 20 fantasy points, becoming only the third week in the sport's history that at least that many did so.
In Week 13 -- and remember, there's a game yet to be played Monday night -- 15 quarterbacks reached the 20-point fantasy plateau. That set an NFL record, besting the 14 who did it back in Week 2 of this season.
Taking it a step further, six of those 15 quarterbacks scored at least 30 fantasy points, which demolished the previous record of four in a week, which happened twice previously: In Week 14 of 2013 and Week 9 of 2015.
The 10th-best-scoring quarterback scored 24 fantasy points in Week 13, as sure a sign as ever that you need a top-scoring passer in order to be competitive in the 21st century game. To wit, the No. 10 weekly quarterback has averaged 19.4 fantasy points this season, and in five of the 13 weeks thus far, it required a 20-point week for a quarterback to crack the top 10.
But at the same time, the weekly identity of this top-scoring passer need not be a brand name. Using ESPN leagues' start percentages, let's illustrate, first the performance of the five most-started quarterbacks:
Next, here are the six quarterbacks to score 30-plus and their start percentages:
Using full-season statistics also demonstrates the abundance of fantasy production at the quarterback position at a discount price. Five of the current top 10 in total fantasy points this season were not even selected among the top 100 players in ESPN leagues: Carson Palmer (243 fantasy points, 135.1 ADP), Andy Dalton (234, undrafted), Blake Bortles (223, undrafted), Philip Rivers (219, 115.8) and Derek Carr (205, undrafted).
Now here's the fantasy owner's typical misinterpretation: Wait on quarterbacks. There's validity, again, to that strategy, but the misread is the "cruise control" mentality that creates. A fantasy team cannot be competitive without a high-scoring quarterback, so careful attention must be paid, not just at all stages of the draft/auction in order to secure the wisest-priced option, but also in season, when scouting weekly matchups. No longer can one coast on selecting Drew Brees in the fourth round, slotting him in weekly with a "but he's my starter" strategy. If you're passing up alternative, high-leverage matchups, you're leaving fantasy points on the table ... and that has been the case for well over a calendar year now.
Quarterbacks, quarterbacks, quarterbacks
This week's quarterback fantasy leaderboard creates an interesting chain, with five of the top six possessing historical ties to one another:
- Tennessee Titans rookie Marcus Mariota tied for the week's lead with 35 fantasy points, which gave him his second performance worth at least 30 in his past five games. He is only the third quarterback since 1960 to have managed multiple 30-point fantasy games as a rookie, joining Cam Newton (three in 2011) and Robert Griffin III (three in 2012). By the way, if we include AFL performances, Greg Cook also had two as a rookie in 1969.
Mariota's game also was the third best by any rookie quarterback since 1960:
Those 35 fantasy points also gave Mariota 179 through his first 10 NFL games, all of which were starts. In fact, that tied him with Dan Marino for the seventh-most fantasy points by any quarterback in his first 10 career starts, since 1960.
While we're on the topic of rookies, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Jameis Winston now has a rookie-leading 196 fantasy points through his first 12 career games, which ranks eighth best among quarterbacks since 1960.
- Further up that list you'll see New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady who, despite his team's disappointing loss on Sunday, continues to accomplish plenty from a fantasy perspective. In that game, he not only managed his 16th career game worth at least 30 fantasy points, moving into a tie with Steve Young for second place, but from an NFL perspective he broke a tie with Dan Marino to capture third place all time in passing touchdowns.
Brady, by the way, already had captured third place in NFL history in terms of career fantasy points. He passed Marino for that honor back in Week 9, and Brady's 3,654 fantasy points during his 16-year career now trail only Peyton Manning (4,538) and Brett Favre (4,178) on the all-time list.
What Brady did Sunday that most raised eyebrows, however, was catch a 36-yard pass. That's no typo: Brady had a 36-yard reception, which was worth three points in fantasy. It gave Brady at least three fantasy points each on passing, rushing and receiving plays, which is extraordinarily unusual. In fact, Brady is only the fifth quarterback since 1960 to manage at least two fantasy points in each department in a game:
You might recall Johnson's game: That was the one during which he threw a touchdown pass to himself .
- Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson, who possesses the highest single-game fantasy score by a rookie QB in the chart above, also has a tie to one of the other charts: His 33 fantasy points Sunday gave him six 30-point games in his four-year NFL career, and that put him within two of Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger for 10th place. Perhaps more important, Wilson scored at least 30 fantasy points for the second consecutive week in the process, which made him only the 12th quarterback since 1960 to manage consecutive team games with at least that many. He's the first to do it since ...
- Roethlisberger, who did that during Weeks 8-9 of 2014, and who also scored 33 fantasy points of his own Sunday to increase his career total of 30-point fantasy performances to eight.
Miscellany
- The sixth and final member of the 30-point fantasy club among quarterbacks in Week 13, Blake Bortles of the Jacksonville Jaguars, lacked an obvious historical tie to the above five, but that didn't make his career-best total of 32 on Sunday any less impressive. That gave him 223 fantasy points in 12 games this season, which is his second year in the league. To put that number into perspective, only 16 quarterbacks since 1960 managed more fantasy points during their sophomore NFL seasons than Bortles' current 223. Bortles is also on pace for 297 fantasy points, which would be the sixth-best total by any second-year QB during that time span.
- Bortles' No. 1 receiver, Allen Robinson, scored a career-high 33 fantasy points as a result. But while Robinson's eye-popping point total in Week 13 might be the focus, it's his consistent track record of excellence that instead might capture your attention: This represented his eighth consecutive game with double-digit fantasy points. Since 2001, he's only the sixth wide receiver with a streak at least that long, with Demaryius Thomas (nine, from Weeks 5-13 of 2014) the only one possessing a lengthier such streak.
- Ho-hum, another week, another 20-point fantasy performance by Odell Beckham Jr. Beckham's 20 fantasy points Sunday brought his career total to 367 through his first 24 games, which is 37 more than any other wide receiver has had through that many games since 1960. Bob Hayes of the 1965-66 Dallas Cowboys is in second place with 330. However, if we include AFL performances, Bill Groman of the 1960-61 Houston Texans scored 408 fantasy points in his first 24 career contests.
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