Which free agent signing is better? Monta Ellis or Louis Williams

ByBRADFORD DOOLITTLE
July 6, 2015, 10:31 AM

— -- As the NBA moratorium period on free agent signings approaches its conclusion, we will compare a number of the signings to each other, analyzing their value and efficiency from a team fit standpoint as well as gauging past and possible future production against what teams paid for their services. Who was the better signing?

Today, we look at two instant offensive combo guards: Louis Williams, the reigning Sixth Man of the Year, who agreed to a deal with the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday, and Monta Ellis, who will join the Indiana Pacers after the moratorium ends this week.

The markets for these players were very different. Ellis was a front-burner target for a number of teams, and landed a contract well into eight figures per season. Williams had plenty of suitors looking to wedge him into a salary cap extension, and ultimately had to join the non-contending Lakers to maximize his remuneration. The key question for today is whether the markets for these players were accurate.

Ellis and Williams have a kind of longstanding rivalry. Williams is a year younger than Ellis, but both players have played 10 NBA seasons. Both were highly-recruited out of high school in the same year as McDonald's All-American guards from the south. According to rscihoops.com, Ellis was the No. 2 player in his class, while Williams was No. 5.

Both players skipped college and went straight to the pros, where they were drafted five picks apart in the second round in 2005: Ellis at 40; Williams at 45. That we're comparing their respective values a full decade later says a lot about how badly NBA teams missed on them back then. But the difference in how their respective careers have played out can be summarized in one very basic statistic: Ellis has played nearly 10,000 more minutes than Williams since entering the NBA, or about 1,000 minutes per season.

Monta Ellis, PG/SG

Last team:  Dallas Mavericks
Season-end age: 29.5
2014-15 WARP (rank): 3.1 (119th)
Deal:  Agreed to a four-year, $44 million contract with the Pacers

Why Ellis is better: Ellis' shot creation is a combined product of his will to score and his otherworldly quickness, yet his career usage rate isn't that much higher than Williams'. In that respect, Ellis' reputation as a high-volume scorer is a little overblown, because he combines that quickness with a rock-solid body that creates constant mismatches for opponents. He's too big and strong for most point guards, and too quick for longer wings. Ellis can also orchestrate the pick-and-roll, which gives him an element of versatility that can serve as a centerpiece of an offense. He's competitive and, perhaps to a fault, relishes taking over key possessions in close games.

The biggest advantage Ellis has over Williams is on the defensive end. He's at least two inches taller, outweighs Williams by 10 pounds or so, and is much more solidly built. Ellis' body and reluctance to come off the floor has allowed him to play as many as 41 minutes per game during his career. He's been at 35 or more in seven of his 10 seasons. He's not just durable. Ellis' size allows him to guard either backcourt position in a non-disastrous manner, and he annually puts up outstanding steal rates, though he is sometimes accused of overplaying the passing lanes. Ellis is far from an all-league defender. But we're comparing him to Williams here; Ellis has posted a better defensive RPM than Williams in each of the 10 seasons they have both played in the NBA.

The Pacers have dismantled the lineup that logged so many minutes in the two seasons prior to last one, with Lance Stephenson, David West and Roy Hibbert all playing elsewhere this autumn. Word is Indiana wants to play fast and, in that vein, Ellis makes sense as one of the fastest players in the league. Nevertheless, the Pacers' investment in him is dubious. He's a combo guard like George Hill and Rodney Stuckey, and lacks the length of C.J. Miles. As a high-usage player, Ellis will rob possessions from whomever he teams with in the Indiana backcourt, though the returning trio all are decent shot creators in their own right. However, Ellis' .509 true shooting percentage is the worst of the bunch.

Ellis' WARP last season was actually a bit less than Miles posted, not to mention out-going Pacer C.J. Watson, and his winning percentage (.470) barely outstripped that of Stuckey (.468). He's not a great candidate to play off the ball because of his streaky 3-point game and is likely Indiana's poorest defensive guard. The shame of it is that Hill showed last season that he can ramp up his usage while remaining highly efficient. A lot of those extra possessions will now go to Ellis. If the Pacers play small, three of these guards will play together a lot with Paul George playing the four, with Solomon Hill also figuring into the mix. Ellis adds another weapon and a strong secondary scorer, but at the bottom line it's uncertain that he'll upgrade any combination of the aforementioned players.

Louis Williams, PG/SG

Last team:  Toronto Raptors
Season-end age: 28.5
2014-15 WARP (rank): 7.7 (38th)
Deal:  Agreed to a three-year, $21 million contract with the Lakers

Why Williams is better: It's true that Ellis has always posted better defensive RPMs for all 10 of their seasons. Ellis has also posted better steal rates in eight of those 10 campaigns, and has a better career defensive rebound rate. But as mentioned, neither of these players is noted for defense. Last season, Ellis posted a positive defensive RPM for just the second time, while Williams has been negative in every season of his career. Williams has managed to stay positive in overall RPM through most of his career not just because of his offense, but because he's generally been used in a role appropriate for his skills. In short, Williams was long ago flagged as a sixth man -- an instant offense threat who can change a game with his scoring ability. He's accepted the role, an excelled in it. Ellis' defense is just good enough to make him the better starting candidate but nevertheless, the ideal role for both players is really the same.

When it comes to offense, Williams has always been a better player than Ellis because of his lethal combination of volume, accuracy and foul-drawing. Whereas Ellis has always beaten Williams in defensive RPM, the converse is true of offensive RPM. Only once has Ellis put up a higher score, and that came in the aftermath of Williams' knee injury a couple of years ago. Ellis does use a slightly higher volume of possessions. But let's not forget that turnover rate is part of usage rate, and the difference between the two can be found in that category. A possession used by Williams is more likely to end up as a shot or a trip to the free throw line.

Williams has a rare dual ability to not just create for himself off the dribble, but to play off the ball and knock down a league-average percentage behind the arc. Despite his size deficit and smaller build, Williams has put up a higher foul-drawing rate than Ellis in each of his 10 seasons. So their offensive volume is comparable, with the only difference being that Ellis turns the ball over more often. Meanwhile, Williams' career true shooting percentage is .540 - a tick above the typical league average -- and Ellis' is .525. Bottom line: Williams' winning percentage has been better than Ellis in eight of 10 seasons, including the last seven.

Williams is a good fit for the Lakers because he's a good fit for every team in the league. With L.A. he can always pair with a big guard, whether it's Kobe Bryant, Jordan Clarkson or D'Angelo Russell. In fact, he's a good candidate to fit long term with Russell and Clarkson even after Bryant calls it quits. However, it is kind of sad for Williams that he has to go to a non-contender to get paid, as he's precisely the kind of player who can help a very good team get over the top. He would have been a dynamic pickup for Cleveland, for example.

Verdict: Williams.

There was little doubt that Ellis would end up with a more lucrative deal than Williams this summer. He'll probably again play many more minutes next season. And once again, despite earning less and playing less, Williams will likely produce more value. This hasn't been a great summer for the Lakers, but "settling" for Williams is their highlight of free agency.