Who should Grizzlies' new coach be? Will Conley and Gasol be back?

ByESPN INSIDERS
May 7, 2016, 8:06 PM

— -- Memphis fired coach Dave Joerger on Saturday, and we have questions -- and answers.

Who should they hire next? Will they keep free agent Mike Conley? What's the long-range outlook in Memphis?

Our Insider crew looks at the future for the Grizzlies.

1. What's your take on the firing of coach Dave Joerger?

Kevin Arnovitz, ESPN.com: A mutually beneficial parting. From the very outset, it was a bizarre tenure for Joerger, who came perilously close to being fired less than two weeks into his first year on the job in 2013.

This season, each side perceived the other to not be fully vested in the future. Management saw Joerger as a petulant coach who was positioning himself for other jobs. And Joerger saw a team that wasn't sufficiently collaborative and attentive. Provided Joerger lands on his feet, each side will be happier next fall.

Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: My initial reaction was that NBA general managers have lost their collective minds, given the news this week. After reading the Chris Wallace Q&A posted on the Grizzlies' website, I don't feel much differently. The veiled shots about Joerger's commitment aren't going to look good when Wallace starts the hiring process.

Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: If Joerger was as unhappy with the organization as some reports today (and rumblings beforehand) have suggested, it's best for both parties. You don't want your coach to have one foot out the door. But the Grizzlies will be hard-pressed to find a replacement who will be an improvement over (or even match) Joerger.

2. What direction do you foresee and advise for the Grizzlies this offseason, including the coaching situation?

Arnovitz: Provided they can retain the services of one Michael Conley Jr., the Grizzlies should maintain a lean core of Conley, Marc Gasol and the couple of young players whose contracts they control ( JaMychal Green, Jarell Martin, etc.), but shuffle the rest of the deck, even if that means moving Zach Randolph and Tony Allen, who personify everything that's infectious about Memphis basketball.

In the first chair, they should install a coach flexible enough to shepherd the team back to the playoffs but also preside over a rebuilding effort, should one be necessary.

Doolittle: The initial buzz about Frank Vogel is odd. He's not a facsimile of Joerger, but they are similar in strengths and manner. Also, since Vogel is the best name on the market, other teams surely want him. I'm not sure Memphis will be his best option. The Grizzlies may end up elevating an assistant, such as Elston Turner.

As for the roster, I doubt that we'll see a complete reset this summer, unless they lose Mike Conley (which I don't think will happen). Even if healthy, it's unclear the Grizzlies can escape their current plateau, but I think they still have to try.

Memphis could better leverage Conley's ability to catch and shoot by finding more of a combo player to team with him rather than the sort of 3-and-D types they have had -- sort of like the Portland model. Next year, Tony Allen and Zach Randolph have expiring deals, opening an opportunity to remake the rotation even further around Conley and Marc Gasol.

Pelton: I'd make an aggressive move to bring in Frank Vogel, the best fit on the market to maintain the Grit and Grind culture. Vogel would make sense presuming the Grizzlies anticipate keeping the roster intact.

In terms of the roster, I foresee mostly the status quo: re-signing Conley after spending the team's cap space to retool the rotating cast of wings who have played alongside Conley, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol throughout the Grit and Grind era.

Would I advise that? It's hard to see a path toward the Grizzlies being a competitive team with this core, but the rebuild is likely to be so severe that I can't blame Memphis for putting it off.

3. Memphis general manager Chris Wallace was quoted predicting, "We are going to re-sign Mike Conley." From 0 to 100 percent, how confident should Wallace be?

Arnovitz: 30 percent. If you're Conley, it's a question of how much you value continuity and playing with Gasol for another four years versus upside and novelty. A year ago, the answer might have been 75, but it wouldn't be unreasonable for Conley to appraise the Grizzlies and conclude that there might be calmer waters elsewhere with a team that has a more certain trajectory and cast of characters.

Elhassan: 50 percent. If I'm Mike Conley, I'm weighing the comfort and familiarity of the Grizzlies versus how much longer I think success can occur with this aging roster. With a plethora of options available (teams like Atlanta and Utah come to mind), Conley's services will be highly sought after. Re-signing long term might not be in his best interest.

If you're Memphis, though, without a doubt, Conley must be retained, no matter the cost.

Thorpe: I think the Grizzlies are about 50/50 to get him back. I just wonder if Wallace will be there to make the deal. With the team due for a significant transition, as is common when a team declines, it seems likely that Wallace will jump or be pushed. Watch for other teams to get interested in an amiable, experienced executive like Wallace.

As for Conley, he'll need to hear a vision for Memphis that makes sense to him, as he'll have nice options elsewhere.

Doolittle: 75 percent. Conley, Marc Gasol and the city of Memphis have a symbiotic relationship that is stronger than people realize from a national perspective. The Grizzlies also can offer him the most money, which never hurts. But Joerger was a part of that equation and his firing introduces another wild card into the process.

Pelton: Maybe 85 percent? Ultimately, nobody but Conley knows what he wants out of his free agency. But given his age, the ability for the Grizzlies to offer an additional year and larger raises should be a significant factor. If Conley were to hit free agency again in four years, it's unlikely he'd make as much money in 2020-21.

4. Wallace also predicted a "full recovery" for Marc Gasol after foot surgery. From 0 to 100 percent, how confident should Wallace be?

Arnovitz: 52 percent. I'd feel better if Gasol were 20 years old like Joel Embiid, who is also recovering from a navicular fracture, or even former teammate Quincy Pondexter, who was 25 at the time of his fracture. The navicular bone is a hub in the foot's skeletal structure, and when you're a 7-footer bouncing around a basketball court, it's especially important.

The good news is that medical technology is improving at an exponential rate, so Gasol is in a better place than he would've been had he fractured the bone 10 or even five years ago.

Elhassan: 60 percent? As my friend Ethan Strauss is known to say, "I'm not a doctor!" But when big men have foot issues (particularly big men who have a history of being on the heavy side), a red flag immediately goes up. Gasol's game is built to age well, if he can stay on the floor.

Thorpe: The GM is no doctor, and men Gasol's size with that kind of injury are prone to re-injury. So I'll guess 50/50. But I know this -- getting lean again would give Gasol his best odds. If he can lose 40, maybe 50 pounds, that might help him prolong his career.

Doolittle: 90 percent. It's scary when big men injure their feet, and Gasol's injury was in the mid-foot area, which is particularly concerning. However, the specific diagnosis was encouraging and he's already graduated from crutches to a walking boot, and even done a little light shooting at practice. Of course, since Gasol just finished the first season of a huge contract, Memphis has to proceed as if he's going to be healthy and hope this was a one-time thing.

Pelton: Around 65 percent? The recovery isn't usually the issue -- that's fairly predictable with broken bones. The problem is that foot bones have a tendency to break again, particularly with 7-footers. So Gasol's long-term health will remain a concern.