Hot pace could pave way for Frosted
— -- Pace can make a race, even if it's one with a storied 141-year history like the Kentucky Derby.
It can wither a champion or allow a perennial also-ran to suddenly become brave. On Saturday, when the curtain goes up on the 2015 Triple Crown season, the $2 million Kentucky Derby promises to be the kind of race that will either create a new superstar or reward in grand fashion a horse who finds himself in a highly opportune spot at the right time.
There's little question that American Pharoah and Dortmund deserve to be the two favorites in the mile-and-a-quarter test. Each is trained by Bob Baffert, and they are a combined 10 of 11 in their careers.
It's a dreamy situation for a trainer, except that the two stablemates possess similar running styles. In each of their races at 3, neither has been worse than second at any call in the race.
Complicating matters, the third choice, Blue Grass Stakes winner Carpe Diem (8-1), has been first or second in eight of the 10 calls in his two 2015 wins. Materiality (12-1), the Florida Derby winner, has been first or second in 14 of the 15 calls in his three career starts.
Firing Line (12-1) and Dortmund were within a couple of lengths of each other in the early stages when they clashed in the Los Alamitos Futurity and Robert B. Lewis. Dortmund beat Firing Line by a head on both occasions. In his last start, Firing Line ran in the Sunland Derby, sans Dortmund, and romped by 14 lengths.
There's also Ocho Ocho Ocho (50-1), who set the pace in the Blue Grass before he weakened to third.
Together, this volatile mix has the potential to bunch a large number of quality runners within close proximity of each other, where a single spark could lead to quite an inferno. That possibility enhances the chances of the horses who will linger at the back of the pack while the madness unfolds in front of them.
Some of them may not be as talented as the aforementioned runners, but as mentioned previously, pace does indeed make a race, and those are sweet words for horses like Upstart, Frosted, International Star, El Kabeir, Far Right and Keen Ice.
In analyzing the prospects for Saturday's showdown, it starts with deciding who will most likely win the brawl up front.
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