5-on-5: Will Kevin Durant leave? Can the Thunder make big trades?

ByNBA INSIDERS
May 31, 2016, 3:36 AM

— -- The  Oklahoma City Thunder were within one game of the NBA Finals but fell short after three attempts to advance against the  Golden State Warriors.

Now they face plenty of questions. Will Kevin Durant come back? If he does, on what kind of deal? What trades would help OKC?

Our NBA Insiders debate the future of the Thunder.

  

1. What do you foresee and advise for the Thunder this offseason?

Kevin Arnovitz, ESPN.com: At the outset of free agency, the Thunder need to pursue a two-track strategy. The Durant Returns Track involves fortifying the roster for another title run.

The Durant Leaves Track would be a more long-term approach and would involve acquiring talent and assets that look toward the future, all the while giving Russell Westbrook enough of a reason to stay in OKC next summer.

Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: First and foremost, pray Kevin Durant stays. But once that's established, re-signing Steven Adams is crucial; he's the perfect big for their style of play. Finally, upgrading the shooting position is a must; look for the Thunder to try to find more reliable shooting  -- with some semblance of perimeter defensive ability -- out of their main free-agent acquisition.

Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: Aside from the extremely obvious -- re-signing Durant -- I'd advise the Thunder to sign players, big or small, who can stretch the floor. Even better if they can play adequate defense. Matthew Dellavedova, who can play both guard positions, or Courtney Lee, essentially a better-shooting Andre Roberson with slightly worse defense, seems like a good fit.

Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: If Durant stays, the Thunder probably have to let Dion Waiters leave, given Steven Adams' looming extension and Westbrook's 2017 free agency. If Waiters' market isn't what he hopes, that could change things. You could move either Enes Kanter or Serge Ibaka, but I think you mostly try to stand keep the status quo in place. For another year, anyway.

Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: With 11 players under guaranteed contract, I foresee the Thunder running it back with a similar group, assuming Durant returns. It's hard to argue against that. Waiters is the only other key free agent, and he's likely to re-sign. Oklahoma City's biggest change next year might be the growth of Cameron Payne in his second season.

2. Kevin Durant will likely ...

A. Return on a long-term deal
B. Return on a short-term deal
C. Depart

Elhassan: B. Given how close they came to defeating the Warriors, I don't think Durant will walk away from this experience thinking Oklahoma City will never be good enough to win the title. That said, it still makes little sense for him to lock in long term without knowing what Westbrook will do next year, when he becomes a free agent.

Also, the NBA max salary is expressed as a percentage of the cap, and players with 10-plus years of service are eligible for the largest percentage (35 percent). Furthermore, the cap is expected to top $105 million in 2017, so for Durant, waiting an extra year would mean having a shot to get a bigger slice of an even bigger pie.

Doolittle: B. Durant can earn much more by sticking with the Thunder and optioning out after next season. More importantly, after this playoff run, the short-term deal lets him go it with OKC once more and then see what happens with Westbrook and Ibaka. His past foot trouble is a consideration, though, and he may not want another year's worth of free-agency inquiries.

Engelmann: B. Although a long-term deal may be the smart thing to do given that he had an injury-riddled 2014-15 campaign, I think a short-term deal is most likely. As a true superstar, he can probably dictate the terms and ask for a two-year deal with a player option after the first season, so if Russell Westbrook or Serge Ibaka leaves in summer 2017, Durant can also jump ship.

Pelton: B. Signing a two-year deal with a 2017-18 player option gives Durant the chance to make dramatically more money by becoming a free agent again next summer. Plus, depending on what happens with the NBA's next collective bargaining agreement, it aligns his free agency with Ibaka and Westbrook. It's too logical not to happen.

Arnovitz: B. If you're Durant, why not take the LeBron Plan -- a two-year deal with the second year a player option? This allows Durant to kick the can down the road for a year and give it one last go with Westbrook, whose contract expires in the summer of 2017. At that point, Durant can make a long-term decision that takes into account Westbrook's intentions.

3. Fact or Fiction: The Thunder should bring back Dion Waiters.

Arnovitz: Fact, provided another team doesn't back up the money truck on Waiters' front lawn and force the Thunder to match an unreasonable number, say something north of $16 million per season. Once a red flag whose most highly viewed Vine was a montage of him calling for the ball, Waiters has grown into a productive third guard who has largely bought into the Thunder's culture.

Pelton: Fact. Waiters has made great strides and no longer hurts the team with his freelancing at either end. So he'd be hard to replace with the midlevel exception. Still, since he doesn't bring a lot to the table in a 3-and-D role, I'd rather try to get Waiters back on the one-year qualifying offer than commit long-term money to sign him given the possibility that the Thunder's roster will look much different in a year.

Doolittle: Fiction. Assuming that Waiters garners an offer worth eight figures per season, it's hard to see how the Thunder fit him into a future salary structure where Durant and Westbrook command 70 percent of the cap and Kanter and Adams are both paid like starters. But the market will dictate all this -- from a pure basketball standpoint, Waiters fits well.

Engelmann: Fiction. Waiters had noticeably increased his stock after Games 3 and 4 of this series, when people proclaimed the Thunder had found their own version of a small-ball "death lineup." Now that seems a long time ago.

The bottom line is that Waiters isn't good enough. He is below average in every box score statistic except 3-point shooting percentage and is not a good defender, leading to a real plus-minus (RPM) of minus-2, which is 56th among shooting guards.

Elhassan: Fact, if it's in a similar role to what he's in now. Waiters has all the identifying characteristics of a sixth man: streaky shooter, ability to create off the dribble, inconsistent defense, high-usage offensive talent. They still need a real 3-and-D player, but Waiters is a nice luxury to bring off the bench.

4. What kind of trades should OKC consider?

Pelton: Despite the development of Waiters and Andre Roberson, I'd love to add another two-way wing player to make it easier for coach Billy Donovan to go small and put Roberson at power forward without having to cut the rotation as dramatically as Donovan did in the Western Conference finals. However, I wouldn't overpay for such a player before considering Josh Huestis in that role.

Engelmann: Kanter ranks last in defensive real plus-minus among centers, yet he makes almost superstar money, so I'd be aggressively shopping him. Unfortunately, teams that might overvalue Kanter's counting stats -- such as the Kings and now the 76ers -- are already set at the center position. Kyle Singler also seems very expendable, but it would be tough to find any takers.

Elhassan: Trades are a hard thing to project, because you're dependent on another team (or teams) to go along with what you're trying to achieve. Kanter's value is highest now, given his strong postseason and cap-friendly contract moving forward, but trading him should only be done if it returns the much-needed pieces Oklahoma City has been seeking.

Doolittle: If Kanter's defense isn't playable deep in the playoffs, then his salary can't be justified. However, a key factor is their internal evaluation of Ibaka, whose numbers showed some fraying athletic indicators. If the Thunder can get a good wing scorer or a top-five pick for either of those guys, it might be GM Sam Presti's best chance to shake things up.

Arnovitz: The Thunder have one of the strongest big-man rotations in the NBA with Ibaka, Adams and Kanter. But Adams is due an extension next summer, when Ibaka's deal also expires. It's hard to imagine OKC entering the 2017-18 season with three bigs on premium contracts, prompting the question: What could you get for Ibaka or Kanter? Some high picks or younger players on rookie deals? If so, the Thunder have to listen.

5. If the Thunder were a stock, and you were looking five years ahead, would you buy, sell or hold?

Arnovitz: Hold. Until the long-term fate of Durant and Westbrook are known quantities, it's difficult to handicap the fortune of the franchise. Yet the Thunder have built a strong infrastructure from top to bottom, including a players-first culture and an emphasis on innovation. Even if OKC loses one or both of its stars, there's a lot to like inside the organization.

Doolittle: Buy. Their superstars should realize they would be hard-pressed to find a better basketball situation than staying together, and the market is amenable to their often-contentious relationship with the media. Durant and Westbrook have lots of prime basketball left to be played and there are plenty of complementary players on the ascension.

Elhassan: Buy. Even with the uncertainty of Durant and Westbrook's futures, they have ownership that's committed to winning and intelligent management in Sam Presti, who will steer the franchise in the right direction.

Engelmann: Sell. Being a top-three team in the NBA is an extremely tough feat, and five years is quite a long span. Given that their management has made several questionable decisions the past few years -- such as signing Kanter to a $70 million deal -- and that all their stars will be on the wrong side of 30 at that point, I don't see how one could buy.

Pelton: Sell. Oklahoma City's future effectively comes down to re-signing Durant and Westbrook, and I wouldn't feel comfortable having that kind of risk in my NBA portfolio if I could avoid it.