Kevin Gausman could blossom for Braves after trade from Orioles

Baltimore's selloff accelerated Tuesday, with a trade of perhaps their most valuable - or undervalued, depending on your perspective - asset, Kevin Gausman, who has never lived up to expectations with the Orioles and will now hope to follow the Jake Arrieta path and find success somewhere else. 

Atlanta acquired Kevin Gausman, who has been among my favorite prospects/breakout candidates since what seems like the turn of the century. The Orioles could never quite settle on what to do with Gausman, trying to shift his position on the rubber, moving him to third base to try to add deception but at the cost of Gausman's ability to command the ball to his glove side.

He's been up to 99 as a starter in the past, but is averaging just 93-94 this year, and he's been getting hit harder than normal on the fastball, with his changeup, at least a grade 60, his one truly plus pitch. His slider can be anywhere from a 40 (below-average) to a 55 (above-average) offering, but if he's locating his fastball to both sides he only needs the slider to be a fringy pitch to make him a potential #2 or better starter.

I love this acquisition for Atlanta as a buy-low opportunity, and a chance to take a guy who's healthy with mountains of untapped potential on the mound to see if a change of scenery and a new pitching coach can extract more value from him. Darren O'Day is also in the deal, but is out for the year after hamstring surgery. He's owed $9 million next year and is yet another example of a four-year deal given to a reliever that went sour faster than milk left out in the Arizona sun.

The Orioles get more quantity, as they have in previous trades this month, with little quality this time around. Jean Carlos Encarnacion is the one significant prospect in this trade, and even he is quite flawed, a 20-year-old who has drawn 12 unintentional walks against 100 strikeouts in 379 PA for low-A Rome this year. The third baseman has arm strength and projection in the body, with potential plus raw power to come, but I can't think of a prospect who struggled this badly with plate discipline and wasn't super young for his level who panned out.

Brett Cumberland is a future backup catcher, if that, drawing walks but not hitting. He has thrown out 42% of runners this year after a 22% rate the year before. Evan Phillips is a right-handed reliever who's 90-94 with 40 control. Bruce Zimmerman is a finesse lefty with limited ceiling, pitching in low-A this year as a 23-year-old who signed as a money-saver in the fifth round in 2017.

This could easily end up a lot of nothing for Baltimore in exchange for a pitcher who was once the fourth overall pick in the draft, has two years of control remaining, and still has all of the raw ingredients required to be a top-end starter or, at worst, a really good reliever.