Law: Cardinals send Pham to Rays in surprise deadline trade

Tommy Pham broke out last year at age 29, as he was finally fully healthy, and a degenerative eye condition that once threatened his career appears to be at least in check. His 2017 season was worth over 6 WAR (wins above replacement), putting him in the top 10 in the National League, aided by a .411 on-base percentage that ranked third in the National League. He's posted his worst-ever BABIP (batting average on balls in play) this year, down 65 points from 2017, even though he's making more hard contact, and his other underlying batted-ball data point to this year being something of a fluke. He's also 30 years old now and there is at least the potential that he will start to see his production decline over the three years he has left before free agency.

He's an above-average defender in left field who can handle center on an as-needed basis but shouldn't play there regularly. I think the true Pham is somewhere in the 3-4 win range, with his BABIP and power likely to increase over what he's done to date this season, but would expect him to lose some value between 2019 and 2021. Since the Rays don't really have an incumbent in left or a prospect close to the majors who might fill that spot, they're probably the full 3 to 4 wins better off for having him next year.

The Cardinals did well here for Pham, given his age and lack of track record. Lefty Genesis Cabrera is a clear starter for me as long as he stays healthy, working at 93-96 when I saw him in March with a plus changeup, often plus cutter, and show-me curveball. His walk rate has jumped this year in Double-A, although he's still just 21 and there's nothing mechanical here to suggest he can't get to average command and control. He has a No. 2 starter ceiling, with a wide range of potential outcomes beneath that.

Outfielder Justin Williams had a down year in Triple-A after producing at every level below that; the 22-year-old was known for his big power in high school, but throughout pro ball he's been a high-contact, groundball hitter, putting the ball in play a lot but never hitting more than 14 homers in a season. He's probably a bench player as is, but if ever there were a player to work with on launch angle, Williams is it.

Roel Ramirez is a middle-relief type, sitting mid-90s and touching 97, without a clear plus secondary pitch between his slider and splitter. He's been better in relief, struggling in a brief stint in the rotation in 2017, but the overall package of stuff and command is probably suited for the back of a pitching staff right now. The move clears space for Harrison Bader to play regularly, and it's also possible the Cardinals wanted to add these prospects to bulk up their system for a trade either later Tuesday or this offseason.