LeBron slides in midseason fantasy basketball re-draft
— -- Entering the NBA season, our group of fantasy experts ( for the most part) agreed that New Orleans Pelicans power forward Anthony Davis was the consensus No. 1 player. After all, the fourth-year Kentucky product was among the league leaders in scoring, blocks and rebounds while shooting strong percentages from both the field and charity stripe.
But as we near the All-Star break, that prediction was very, very wrong.
The best fantasy basketball player -- and player in general right now -- is Stephen Curry. The Golden State Warriors guard is averaging 29.8 points, 6.4 assists and 5.3 rebounds a game and seems poised to win his second consecutive MVP award.
Davis, meanwhile, rates as No. 14 overall on our Player Rater. He's still a fantasy stud, but like the New Orleans Pelicans, he did not take the step forward many felt he would this season. The same can be said for a player like LeBron James, who ranks No. 12 overall.
His fall was reflected in our ESPN midseason re-draft, which took place earlier this week. It was a great exercise to see which players met, exceeded or failed to meet initial expectations.
The following group participated in the 10-team Rotisserie-style league: fantasy writers Tom Carpenter, Joe Kaiser, Jim McCormick and John Cregan; fantasy editors Greg Rosenstein, Austin Tedesco and Martenzie Johnson; and Jungkyu Lee, Malik Smith and Matthew Wittyngham of ESPN Stats & Information.
Let's take an updated look at how fantasy players would currently construct a team.
Kaiser on Westbrook: I knew Stephen Curry would be off the board at No. 3 and it seemed likely that Kevin Durant would be as well, so I was prepared to take either Russell Westbrook, James Harden or Anthony Davis with my pick. Ultimately, Davis' lack of durability was too big of an issue to overlook and Westbrook's advantages over Harden in assists, rebounds, steals and field goal percentage meant more to me than Harden's edge in points and 3-pointers.
Johnson on Cousins: Whether I had the No. 1 pick or No. 6, I was going with DeMarcus Cousins as my first pick. He was a monster in January (31.5 PPG, 12.9 RBG, 22.9 FGA per game), and barring any lingering effects of his recent ankle issues, he should continue his high-usage rate for the remainder of the season with the Sacramento Kings fighting for a playoff spot.
Lee on Kawhi Leonard: I like to target efficient players early who can also provide with rarer stats such as steals, blocks and 3-pointers. I struggled between Leonard and triple-double machine Draymond Green but ultimately leaned toward Leonard's 24.5 percent usage rate compared to 19.3 percent for Green. Leonard is a perfect early building block to create an efficient and versatile team. Leonard ranks fourth in the league in true shooting percentage among players with at least 30 minutes per game and he has added almost two steals and a block per game this season. In my opinion, Leonard is a steal at the eighth spot and you can add a volume scorer later in the draft to complement his all-around game.
Wittyngham on Paul: After Curry and Westbrook go, the other elite point guard is Chris Paul. Paul was already having a standout season before Blake Griffin got hurt. In January and February without Blake, Paul is posting 21.1 PPG, 10.4 APG, 46 percent from 3-point range with 2.2 3-pointers made per game and 2.3 steals per game. No other player is averaging close to those numbers.
Wittyngham on Green: With his versatility I can even play him at small forward, opening up room for more bigs. I try to dominate the auxiliary stats. Rebounds, steals, blocks and assists, not the scoring ones. No player has more triple-doubles this season than Draymond (10), who just broke the Warriors' single-season record. With Steph Curry on the scoring tear he is, Green's playmaking has gone up, increasing his assist ceiling. Adding a passing big to my team was huge.
Tedesco on John Wall: Held out hope that (somehow) Draymond would fall here, but I'm happy with Wall. The Wizards are in a great situation where they probably can't trade for much help and tie up cap space heading into free agency, but they also won't pull the plug on a playoff chase. That should mean lots and lots of Wall, who was the third-highest offensive real plus-minus of any PG playing more than 35 MPG (behind Damian Lillard and Kyle Lowry, two PGs I would've loved to grab as well.)
McCormick on Towns: This draft spot might appear lofty, but Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 18.9 points, 12.1 boards, 1.9 blocks, 0.9 steals and is shooting .574 from the field, .538 from 3-point range and .838 from the stripe in his past 11 starts. We're basically looking at a prime Pau Gasol who can hit 3-pointers, only Towns just turned 20 in November and is only recently adding the deep ball to his production pattern. Already 18th in the NBA in PER and eighth overall -- first among centers -- on the Player Rater's standard deviation model, we're looking at a first-round value this season who will go on to become a perennial top-five fantasy pick for the next decade.
Rosenstein on Irving: This may have been a bit of a stretch at this point, but after taking Curry No. 1, I wanted to bolster my backcourt with another strong scoring guard. Kyrie Irving, still getting back to 100 percent after missing time earlier in the season due to a fractured left patella, is averaging 17.2 points and four assists a contest. However, I expect those numbers to increase soon (particularly with coach Tyronn Lue now in charge).
Kaiser on Walker: Kemba Walker is ranked No. 16 on ESPN's Player Rater, so when he was there at No. 23 I jumped at the chance to have him even after already going with a pair of guards (Westbrook and Klay Thompson) in rounds 1 and 2. Point guard gets thin fast after the top tier, and I wanted to make sure I was strong in that department
Lee on Brook Lopez: I think Lopez is criminally underrated as a fantasy asset, and I don't think grabbing him at the tail end of third round is a great value. Lopez is a rare player whose efficiency doesn't get compromised by his volume that you can find after the first two rounds. Among 29 players with a usage rate of at least 25 percent this season (min. 40 starts), Lopez is one of three players who is shooting better than 50 percent from the field and better than 75 percent from the free throw line. The other two? The first two picks in this draft: Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant. Add on his 1.9 blocks per game (sixth in the league) and he is a great asset. He won't give you many assists, steals or 3's, but you wouldn't expect that from a traditional big man anyway.
Wittyngham on Jordan: I took him probably a little bit earlier than I wanted, but with Blake out as long as he is, I couldn't pass up. DeAndre Jordan will get you an elite FG percentage as he basically only dunks. You take the hit on FT percentage because he's going to get you high rebound nights. Since Blake got hurt, Jordan has been a double-digit rebounding machine, with only one game he's played in being below 10 rebounds. He's also been in double figures in scoring in all but two of the games Griffin has been out, and will get you blocks at a decent rate.
Cregan on Porzingis: In expert drafts, you have to swing for the fences a little. I looked for first- or second-year players who could close out the season with a statistical flourish. Outside of Towns, I can't think of a rookie better positioned for a big finish than Kristaps Porzingis. He could fall flat, but the upside is there to return second- or third-round value.
Carpenter on Holiday: Since I focused on big men with my first three picks, I missed out on the elite point guards. This being a roto format, I felt it necessary to address that position in the fourth round by taking Jrue Holiday. The health risk is obvious, but so is his upside now that he appears to be healthy and is taking on a bigger role in the Pelicans' offense.
Rosenstein on McCollum: I loved this pickup in Round 5. C.J. McCollum ( rated by Tom Carpenter as 30th overall) has shown his ability to be an elite scoring guard as a starter for the first time this season. Just a couple of days ago he dropped 30 points on Milwaukee. With Curry, Irving and McCollum in the fold, I think I have arguably the strongest backcourt in this league.
Kaiser on Horford: Al Horford isn't flashy and he tends to fall in drafts, but he is one of the most well-rounded centers in the league and that's why he currently sits at No. 19 on the Player Rater -- ahead of players like Pau Gasol, Damian Lillard and Klay Thompson. When he fell to me at 43, I was able to solidify my center position and have five players -- Westbrook (3), Thompson (22), Walker (16), Horford (19) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (28) -- who ranked in the top 28 of the Player Rater.
McCormick on Gay: Even with some slow statistical stretches, Rudy Gay is ranked 35th on the Player Rater thanks to positive contributions across nearly every statistical category. The real key with Gay is a key share on the fastest-paced offense in the league. The Kings' peerless pace affords Gay this healthy versatility, as he's averaged 1.3 3-pointers, 1.3 steals and 1.2 blocks in 2016. With 15 shots per game on an elite offense, I'll take on any trade risks given the Kings are currently fighting for playoff seeding.
McCormick on Crowder: I tried to target a couple of players who have suffered recent minor injuries in the hopes of snaring some bounceback candidates. Jae Crowder's coming off of a rough couple of weeks -- he played through an illness, then strained his calf -- and his numbers were momentarily depressed just enough to get him a few slots below market value.
Wittyngham on Favors: Like I mentioned with Draymond, I go for the, as I call them, "auxiliary stats" instead of the scoring stats. Derrick Favors helps with that. On the season, he's averaging a decent 16.6 PPG, but he's also averaging at least one block and one steal a game, in addition to two assists. He will have nights where he will fill the stat sheet and get you a little bit of everything. With Rudy Gobert back, his value went down a little, but he is still an asset.
Lee on Rubio: As I mentioned before, I like having an efficient and versatile team but sometimes you need volume on certain categories. I felt good about taking a risk on Ricky Rubio's spotty shooting (35.1 field goal percentage) because my first five picks were all efficient players with better than 55 percent true shooting percentage. Plus, Rubio doesn't provide enough shooting volume to compromise my field goal percentage category. What he can do is get volume steals and assists, of which he ranks third and fifth, respectively, and is something that is really hard to find after the first few rounds (unless if you were a lucky few who took a gamble on Rajon Rondo in preseason drafts). With Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Lowry and Rubio, I feel good about being in the top of the league in steals.
Johnson on Brandon Knight : I was actually shocked to see Knight still available at this spot, despite it being the exact same ranking in Tom Carpenter's most recent rest-of-season rankings. We could not have forecasted a season-ending injury to backcourt mate Eric Bledsoe at the beginning of the season, and Knight hasn't exactly taken advantage of his time without Bledsoe (he averages fewer points per game without Bledsoe in the lineup this season through Feb. 3, per Statmuse), but once he returns from the All-Star break -- with all of the Suns' other health and front office issues -- I could see Knight getting more minutes and usage with nothing else to lose in the desert. Or the Suns could decide to tank.
Carpenter on Griffin: In classic fantasy fashion, my queue was eaten up directly in front of my sixth-round pick, as Nerlens Noel, Ish Smith and Chandler Parsons came off the board. At that point, I felt like Griffin was worth a shot. I like him better in head-to-head leagues, but even in roto systems he can make a big difference if he returns to action by mid-March. None of the remaining players carried huge upside, so I'm happy with this pick.
McCormick on Wade: If this were a weekly league I'd likely let Dwyane Wade go a bit later, but the roto nature of the scoring plays well into Wade's volume-driven game. In a weekly format, the fact Wade often rests on back-to-backs or faces injury stretches this far into his career lowers his stock. But Wade is seventh in the NBA in usage rate and, like Gay, can help in steals (0.9 per game in 2016) and blocks (0.8), in addition to a slash of 18.3/4.5/5.2 overall. No one really wants to spend on an aging asset, but I think we're looking at a top-50 roto asset going forward.
Cregan on Conley: No matter what, I always seem to draft Mike Conley a round later than I think he'll be worth. And there's nothing like the phrase "sore Achilles" to drive down a player's ADP. With Conley still rounding back into shape following his Achilles scare, I figured it was a good time to get him on the cheap. He should outperform his draft position by at least a round going forward.
Tedesco on Dennis Schroder: Take every point guard selected in rounds 7-9 -- Conley, Michael Carter-Williams, Schroder, Derrick Rose, Payton, Jeff Teague, George Hill, Goran Dragic, Zach LaVine and Emmanuel Mudiay. Schroder has played the fewest minutes and has the highest usage rate. I'm buying high on his stats spiking if/when the Hawks trade Teague. And if they also decide to flip Horford for future assets before the big man hits free agency this summer?
Hello German skateboarding Rondo.
Johnson on Rose: If you can't tell by now, I went all-in on usage rate for this draft, with seven of my 13 selections in the top 50 in usage this season. Rose is still not back to his MVP form (and he probably never will), but he just had his best shooting month (47.1 percent in January) since October 2014. Despite his anemic averages so far this season, he's still tied for 29th in the league in usage rate and is attacking the basket more (52.9 percent of his shot attempts last month were within 10 feet of the basket, according to NBA SportVU data). Though Rose started this month off on a rocky note (28.6 percent shooting vs. Utah on Feb. 1), I am banking on the former MVP to continue to get better as the season progresses.
Rosenstein on Teague: I haven't loved Teague this season, but at this spot in the draft he presented too much value to pass up. According to our Player Rater, the Hawks guard ranks 44th overall, yet I was able to snag him at 81st. Not too bad. Part of my thinking was he also may be dealt to a better situation and thus improve his stats during the second half of the season.
McCormick on Ariza: Trevor Ariza is 10th in minutes per game during the past two weeks (37.1) and offers elite production in 3-pointers (10th in 3-pointers made per game in 2016) and steals (seventh in steals in 2016). A frustrating minutes breakdown in the Rockets' frontcourt has deflated Ariza's stock, it appears, as he offers rare volume in some valuable stats for such a cheap price in the draft.
Lee on Booker: I love Devin Booker's game and his upside going forward. He has become a regular starter for the Suns, which have gone through a tumultuous season, to say the least. In his 18 starts entering Tuesday, Booker has averaged almost 15 points and 1.2 3-pointers with 55.5 true shooting percentage. Booker figures to be one of the few surefire returners for the Suns in 2016-17, so I'm sure he will get plenty of game experience for the rest of the season.
Wittyngham on Lin: Bit of a reach, but the Hornets seem to really get hurt a lot. Jeremy Lamb has had some time, Nicolas Batum and even Kemba Walker. And who benefits from all of those? Jeremy Lin. His usage is a 22.4 percent when he is in the starting lineup, compared to a 21.8 when coming off the bench. Now .6 percentage points isn't much, but Lin's best performances this season have come in the starting lineup, including a 35-point performance against Toronto.
Cregan on Morris: I can't think of a player better positioned for a post-Hornacek bounceback than Markieff Morris. I was very high on Morris this preseason, and have been carrying around a lot of roto guilt for pushing him on our dear readers. When a talented player is struggling due to emotional/chemistry issues, I'm praying for a trade...but a coaching change is usually the next-best option. It felt like a good time to roll the dice.
Kaiser on Jokic and Dieng: Getting Nikola Jokic in Round 9 and Gorgui Dieng a round later gave me two more efficient big men who not only score and rebound but also block shots and steal. These were two of the picks I was most excited about, believe it or not. Jokic ranks No. 67 on the Player Rater and Dieng is No. 46.
Carpenter on DeMarre Carroll: Obviously, I wasn't shy about drafting injured or injury-prone players, but I like the spots where I landed them. Carroll has been sidelined while recovering from knee surgery long enough that you may have completely forgotten about him -- he is owned in just 33.2 percent of ESPN leagues -- but keep in mind that he can rack up quality 3s, steals and rebounds. That makes him a nice fantasy glue guy to round out starting lineups for the stretch run. Hopefully he will be back soon after the All-Star break, so put him in your radar.
Rosenstein on Louis Williams: This was more of a value pick than anything else. Williams, No. 80 overall per Carpenter right now, will add quality depth to both guard spots, should any of my previous picks miss time. I particularly like his ability to get to the free throw line, as he's hit 24 free throws in the past three games.
Tedesco on Danny Green: Dude's got to break out of this slump at some point ... right? Probably should've just taken Boban Marjanovic here.
