Will Lowry, Raptors break through to win East with their star core?
— -- Can the Toronto Raptors expect different playoff results from a similar roster?
After the Cleveland Cavaliers swept the short-handed Raptors out of last year's conference semifinals, this summer looked like it might mark the end of an era that saw Toronto average 50 wins over the last four seasons but win just three playoff series.
Instead, the Raptors retained head coach Dwane Casey and have now agreed to new contracts for their top two free agents, forward Serge Ibaka (three years, $65 million) and All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry (three years, $100 million).
While Ibaka was added at the trade deadline last season and there may be more changes in store, the Raptors appear set to return the same core. Is that group doomed to regress in the playoffs after strong regular seasons, or is this the year they break through?
Do offenses like Toronto's struggle in the playoffs?
One popular explanation for the Raptors' playoff woes is their reliance on isolation play. Indeed, Toronto's assist rate last season (47.2 percent of made field goals) was the lowest by an NBA team since 1989-90, and fourth-lowest since the ABA-NBA merger. None of the three teams with lower assist rates than the Raptors actually made the postseason.
Cutting the sample to the expansion of the playoffs to 16 teams in 1984, here's how teams like Toronto with low assist rates have performed.
Of those 10 teams, two reached the NBA Finals before losing. Overall, they've won 11 series -- three more than we would have expected based on their seed.
On the other hand, when low-assist teams have struggled in the playoffs, it's often been because their offenses have bogged down against tougher defense. Looking at the same 10 teams, here's how their offense relative to league average during the regular season compared to their offensive rating in the playoffs adjusted for the slate of opposing defenses they faced.
Offense does tend to decline during the playoffs as defensive intensity ramps up, but with the notable exception of the 2011-12 Oklahoma City Thunder -- who boasted two elite isolation scorers in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook -- these teams generally got much worse. And the Raptors' last two playoff runs have been two of the worst offenders. After ranking fifth in sixth in offensive rating during the regular season in 2015-16 and 2016-17, Toronto slipped to 12th and 14th out of the 16 playoff teams after accounting for their opposition.
Are the Raptors getting the same shots in the playoffs?
Another way to consider the question is to look at the quality of shots Toronto has gotten during the postseason. If offensive style is to blame for the team's playoff woes, we'd expect to see the Raptors unable to generate quality looks. To the extent we can measure shot quality from publicly available data, the results are mixed.
During the 2016 playoffs, Toronto indeed got worse shots in the playoffs. The Raptors got to the rim significantly less frequently -- in percentage terms, only the LA Clippers attempted fewer shots in the restricted area during the 2016 playoffs -- and those missing attempts turned into less valuable midrange ones.
Last year's postseason was different. Toronto actually increased its rate of attempting shots at the rim, and saw its rate of midrange attempts decrease slightly. (Most of those attempts in the restricted area came from those taken elsewhere in the paint, which tend to be much less valuable.)
During the 2017 playoffs, the Raptors' issues were almost exclusively tied to their inability to make 3s above-the-break; that is, anywhere but the shorter corners. Toronto made those 3s at a 30.9 percent clip in the postseason, better only than the Atlanta Hawks (30.4 percent), after making 36.0 percent of them during the regular season.
Granted, the Raptors benefited from playing the Milwaukee Bucks, whose defense tends to concede open 3-pointers. Toronto's shot distribution wasn't as good against the Cleveland Cavaliers, a series played largely without Lowry. Nonetheless, looking at this data leads me to believe that shot making is the Raptors' bigger problem in the playoffs, not their offensive system.
What changes can Toronto still make?
Including the incentives that push Lowry's contract to a full $100 million, the Raptors are now about $14 million over the luxury-tax line, presuming they fill out their roster with a minimum-salary free agent. That probably means the departure of forward Patrick Patterson, one of the players who struggled to make open shots in last year's playoffs.
I'd now expect Toronto to trade backup point guard Cory Joseph. Replacing Joseph with another player at the minimum would get the Raptors' tax bill down to a manageable $10 million or so, and Toronto has depth at the position with 2015 first-round pick Delon Wright behind Joseph. Already, ESPN's Chris Haynes has confirmed a report by Michael Scotto of BasketballInsiders.com that the Raptors are discussing trading Joseph to the Indiana Pacers, who could take him into cap space.
Toronto will surely continue to explore trades involving starting center Jonas Valanciunas, who will make an average of $16.5 million over the remaining three seasons on his contract. Valanciunas is a fine regular-season contributor who is often the victim of matchup problems against playoff teams that go small at center.
Ideally, the Raptors would get off Valanciunas' salary now, allowing them to re-sign Patterson and make Ibaka their starting center. That would give Toronto a very different look with far more floor spacing. If a reasonable deal for Valanciunas were out there, however, I suspect Toronto would already have made it.
So for now it's "meet the new Raptors, same as the old Raptors" except with Ibaka in place of Patterson at power forward. That's not necessarily a bad thing. This group has been effective in the regular season and there is evidence to suggest they've been somewhat unlucky in the playoffs.
While it's hard to see Toronto getting past Cleveland as currently constructed, the Raptors can hope that LeBron James leaves the Cavaliers next summer and the Boston Celtics aren't able to significantly upgrade their roster in the interim. If so, and if Toronto's playoff struggles aren't structural, there might still be a window for the Raptors to win the East.
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