MLB daily notes: Fantasy rankings for Thursday
— -- We're dealing with yet another abbreviated slate on Thursday, but on the bright side, we've seen some truly awful Thursday slates this season, and while this one isn't great, it's not the worst we've seen. With a legitimate ace at the top and multiple mid-tier options also in play, this should add up to a decent little slate for DFS players.
Pitching
Elite
Madison Bumgarner, as you might expect, is the top play of the day. He heads to Oakland, where he'll have to face a DH instead of a pitcher. However, the O.co Coliseum is a pitcher-friendly environment, and while the A's fare better against left-handers than righties, they're still middle-of-the-road. Plus, Bumgarner is elite, so he's matchup-proof anyway. His 1.99 ERA is second in baseball only to Clayton Kershaw, and his 10.1 K/9 is a career best. Don't expect a lofty strikeout total, as the A's are striking out an MLB-best 16 percent in June. That said, the floor here is high, and that's what you want in cash games.
Solid
No team in baseball strikes out more against right-handed pitching than the Brewers, who fan 26 percent of the time. Add in the fact that they also don't do much damage when they do make contact (90 wRC+), and Kenta Maeda finds himself in a very appealing spot on Thursday. The right-hander is in play in both cash and guaranteed prize pool games.
Despite a game score of 58 and a high-upside matchup against the Reds, I'm going nowhere near Gio Gonzalez in cash games on Thursday. The lefty has surrendered five or more runs in five of his last seven starts, and most of those outings came against weak offenses (Padres, Brewers, Reds, Mets). Feel free to roll the dice with him in tournaments, though, as he's striking out more than a batter per inning and the Reds whiff at a 22 percent clip against southpaws.
John Lackey is coming off his worst start of the season (7 ER in 4 1/3 innings against the Marlins), but he's in prime position to bounce back on Thursday. The veteran right-hander draws a Mets team that's striking out 23 percent of the time versus righties and put up a .299 wOBA in June. Prior to his last outing, Lackey had allowed three or fewer runs in each of his previous 10 starts, so I still trust him as a cash play.
Like Lackey, Jordan Zimmermann is coming off his worst outing of the season. However, a road tilt against Tampa Bay might be too good to pass up. The Rays have done little against right-handed pitching this season and are fanning at a 25 percent clip, more than any team in the AL. Whiffs aren't a big part of Zimmermann's game this season (5.7 K/9), but he owns a 7.3 career K/9 and should be able to rack up at least a handful of K's in such a favorable matchup. I'm still hesitant about Zimmermann given his recent struggles, but he's still in play as a potential SP2 if the price is right.
Steven Matz, who is dealing with a bone spur in his pitching elbow, had his next start pushed back from Wednesday to Thursday. The bone spur is more of a red flag for season-long owners than DFS players, but a date with the Cubs naturally means sounding a note of caution with any cash recommendation. The Cubs are a top-five team against left-handed pitching and lead the majors in walk rate (11 percent), so the Mets' lefty will have little margin for error. That said, the door is open for Matz as a high-upside tournament play. The Cubs are whiffing at a 24.3 percent clip in June, while Matz is striking out nearly a batter per inning.
Streamers
One of the most enticing matchups of the day belongs to Carlos Rodon. The southpaw draws a home start against the Twins, who are one of the worst teams in the AL against left-handed pitching and strike out 25 percent of the time. For his part, Rodon is whiffing a batter per inning and has allowed more than two earned runs just once in his last seven outings. He makes for an appealing GPP play, and he's also a viable streaming option given his low ownership.
Michael Pineda's 5.51 ERA is an obvious deterrent, but there's potential value here if you look for it. Not only does the 27-year-old sport a top-10 whiff rate (10.4 K/9), but he's also shown some positive trends in June, posting a 3.00 ERA over five starts. With the Rangers, a team that's below average against righty pitching, on tap, Pineda is set up to succeed on Thursday.
Wei-Yin Chen and his fantasy owners caught a break, as the Miami Marlins lefty was pushed to Thursday to face the Atlanta Braves instead of facing the Detroit Tigers on Wednesday as originally scheduled. Look for Chen to take advantage, as the Braves are the second-worst team in terms of wOBA versus southpaws, plus they sport an above-average 22 percent strikeout rate in this scenario.
Avoid
This probably goes without saying, but don't go chasing Chris Young and his 9.2 K/9 rate on Thursday. The right-hander owns a 7.79 ERA in June and a 9.70 ERA on the road this season. The Cardinals, who sport an MLB-best 119 wRC+ versus righties this year, won't go easy on him.
Hitting
Tommy Milone has made only six appearances (five starts) for the Twins this season, but they haven't been pretty. Those six outings have resulted in a 5.33 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and five homers allowed in 27 innings. Right-handed boppers Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier should be able to take advantage, and Melky Cabrera, who's batting .340 off lefties this year, is also in play.
There's no way around it: Left-handed batters have absolutely bashed Chris Young this season. He's faced 113 lefty hitters this year, and they've put up a .364/.442/.867 slash line against him. With the Cardinals on the docket, Matt Carpenter is an elite play, and Brandon Moss and Matt Adams are both high-end options if they're in the lineup.
Reds lefty Brandon Finnegan has shown some good things this season. However, he's also struggled with his control (4.2 BB/9) and has allowed tons of hard contact (36 percent). On Thursday, he's running into a Nationals team that crushes left-handers (.345 wOBA and .202 ISO). There are plenty of Nationals bats worth consideration here, but Jayson Werth, who is batting .394-5-15 versus lefties this year, should be the top target.
With soft-tossing lefty Dillon Overton on the hill for the A's on Thursday, Buster Posey makes for an intriguing option behind the plate. Overton allowed three homers in his major league debut. Posey, meanwhile, is hitting .301/.388/.479 versus southpaws this season.
Most likely to go yard: Matt Carpenter
Chris Young can't get left-handed hitters out, and Carpenter, who is on pace for 30 bombs, smashes righties. Let's not overthink this.
Most likely to swipe a bag: Ian Desmond
Michael Pineda has allowed 11 stolen bases this year (bottom 10), while catcher Brian McCann has allowed 34 baserunners to steal off him (bottom five). Desmond, who leads the Rangers with 13 swipes, must be licking his chops.
