#MLBRank: Forecasting the future for seven stars under 30
— -- Our All-Time #MLBRank Top 100 offers a definitive ordering of the greatest names in the game's history. In whittling down 162 players on the ballot to 100, the criteria used by our panel were peak performance and career value. But what about today's young stars Mike Trout, Clayton Kershaw, Bryce Harper and others who have a chance to climb the rankings in future years? Using ZiPS WAR projections, we can get an idea of where they might land when their careers are over.
I took the seven active players under age 30 on the #MLBRank ballot, listed below in order of projected career WAR: Trout, Kershaw, Harper, Chris Sale, Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner. In looking at their yearly projections, you get a sense of how well (or not well) each one will age -- and who their closest historical comparisons might be.
For career comparisons: We listed the two career WAR totals, among retired players from the same position, ranked just above the projection, and the two totals just below it. The closest comp is the one closest to the projection.
CF, Angels
Age: 24
#MLBRank: 40
Trout's talents and accomplishments are unquestioned. He has a unique, impressive skill set across every aspect of the game. One question: Will he be putting up these numbers in an Angels uniform, or elsewhere? Despite the team's struggles and barren farm system (not to mention Trout's $144.5 million contract), the future Hall of Famer is under contract through the 2020 season. And he projects to have at least 4-5 All-Star caliber seasons after that -- well worth locking up with an extension if the Angels can swing it. But one thing's for sure: he should finish his career in elite company.
Projected totals
Career progression
Career comps (CF)
Closest WAR comp: Tris Speaker
LHP, Dodgers
Age: 28
#MLBRank: 26
Kershaw's career has gone into orbit in his mid-to-late twenties, putting him in position to finish his career among the 10 or 15 greatest pitchers of all time ( current back pain notwithstanding). Before he missed the past month due to injury, 2016 was on track to be the fourth consecutive season of increased WAR for the star lefty. If he can remain healthy going forward, and in a pitcher-friendly National League home park, the sky's the limit -- though some sustained postseason success would also help solidify his case.
Career progression
Career comps (P)
Closest WAR comp: Gaylord Perry
RF, Nationals
Age: 23
#MLBRank: 85
Expectations have always been huge for Harper, who appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated at age 16 and ranked as the No. 1 overall MLB prospect two years in a row by Baseball America going into his rookie season. While he has been inconsistent this season, 2015 showed he can actually live up to the advance billing and then some (.330/.460/.649 slashline with 42 home runs). Even if he doesn't produce like that every season, he is projected to keep his yearly WAR above 3 until age 34 (in 2027).
Career progression
Career comps (RF)
Closest WAR comp: Al Kaline
LHP, White Sox
Age: 27
#MLBRank: NR
Sale was a 21-year-old prospect with just 11 minor league appearances when he was called up to the White Sox in 2010. Since becoming a starter two seasons later, he has finished top-five in the American League Cy Young voting three times and started this summer's All Star Game. As he aims for his first Cy Young Award, is he peaking right now? Yes, but he has staying power. The next few years should be among his finest, but he should remain productive into his mid-30's based on projections. Just keep him away from any more throwback jerseys.
Career progression
Career comps (P)
Closest WAR comp: John Smoltz/Tommy John
CF, Pirates
Age: 29
#MLBRank: NR
The 2013 National League MVP has largely had a season to forget this year, sporting a 24.5 percent strikeout rate (career high) and 8.6 percent walk rate (career low) while struggling to drive in runs and sparking debate about what the Pirates should do. While his 20-steal seasons might be behind him as he enters his 30's, he can still bounce back as a productive hitter and play for a long time.
Career progression
Career comps (CF)
Closest WAR comp: Robin Yount
C, Giants
Age: 29
#MLBRank: NR
San Francisco's steadfast catcher is all about durability, able to shake off minor injuries and keep playing. He averaged 148.3 games from 2012 through 2015, while the only catcher within 20 games of that average is Yadier Molina (130). And looking forward, Posey appears to be built to last -- our projections have him registering a 3.1 WAR at age 35, better than Trout, Harper or McCutchen.
Career progression
Career comps (C)
Closest WAR comp: Yogi Berra/Mike Piazza
LHP, Giants
Age: 26
#MLBRank: NR
Although he sometimes gets obscured by some of the other great arms in the National League, Bumgarner was 10-4 with a 1.94 ERA going into the All Star break. He has already earned a stellar postseason resume (7-3 record), including a 4-1 playoff record in 2014 to go with National League Championship Series and World Series MVP honors. And it's not accounted for here, but Bumgarner impacts his starts as a hitter, too (13 career homers, 3.5 offensive WAR per Fangraphs).
Career progression
Career comps (P)
Closest WAR comp: Mickey Lolich
ZIPS projections and WAR totals as of July 20
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