How Murray can beat Djokovic

ByPETER BODO
February 1, 2015, 1:29 AM

— -- You have to hand it to tennis on at least one front: It's a game full of second chances. And third chances. And fourth chances. There's a tournament every week and four Grand Slams of (theoretically) equal value every year.

This is a good thing for Andy Murray.

Murray has worked his way to three Australian Open finals, and now he's earned a fourth chance to finally get it right. The catch? He has to defeat top-ranked and top-seeded Novak Djokovic, as well as his own personal history with Djokovic. The Serbian star has frustrated Murray in Melbourne on three occasions, two of them finals.

So what should Murray do to achieve a different outcome? Here are five ideas:

1. Get off to a fast start. Murray has peaked perfectly for this final, taking down a red-hot Tomas Berdych (conquerer of No. 2 seed Rafael Nadal) in the semis. By contrast, Djokovic will be coming off semifinal win that had more ragged edges than the coast of Maine. Djokovic has plenty of time to get over that subpar performance against defending champ Stan Wawrinka, and he certainly will take comfort in the fact that he played poorly and won.

But if Murray can keep Djokovic off balance from the start, the doubts that were so apparent on Djokovic's face during the semi could certainly reappear, displacing the confidence that Djokovic otherwise has every right to feel.

2. Defend the second serve. Murray's serve is better than it looks, which isn't saying all that much. Does any Grand Slam champ wander around under his toss as frequently, or so often look like he's going to topple over for lack of balance? The technique might not be pretty, but it has been relatively effective: Murray has put more than 60 percent of his first serves into the right box in every match but one, and had one win in which he was accurate with 69 percent of his first deliveries.

But the success rate on second serves is an even more important stat against a returner of Djokovic's caliber. Djokovic has been successful on his second serve 66 percent of the time at this tournament. Murray has successfully converted 59 percent. Murray likely will have a shot if he can match or surpass that number.

Would you like a little cheese with that whine? But no matter, the situation got Murray stoked, so much so that the semi was crackling with tension. The intensity it brought out in Murray was useful.

Because Valldervu and Murray were friends before they had a professional relationship, perhaps Valldervu will be willing to make amends by pretending to be Boris Becker's assistant and plopping down in the Djokovic box. There have been plenty of empty seats there anyway, and Boris could use someone to talk to.

4. Aggression, aggression, and aggression. One of the leitmotifs of Murray's career has been the constant inner battle between "Passive Andy" and "Aggressive Andy." The former will have no chance in this final if Djokovic plays an average or better match. He's simply better than Murray on hard courts because his game is more grooved and fluid.

Both of these men have a great talent for seguing from defense to offense with a single swipe of the racket, and Murray must beat Djokovic to the punch. Mauresmo has preached about this to Murray and now, after their first extended training block together, it seems to be sinking in.

Djokovic admitted that he was frequently "too passive" in his semifinal win over Wawrinka, but Murray can't bank on Djokovic repeating that error. The high ground will be occupied by the guy who most successfully curbs his desire to play run and fetch and takes the game to his opponent.

5. Let Kim be Kim. Murray's fiancée, Kim Sears, created a sensation during his semifinal when she appeared to curse out Berdych. The British tabloids had a field day with "potty-mouth Kim," and one even brought in professional lip readers (who knew?) to decipher her exact words, with little luck short of stating what everyone already knew: Kim dropped a few F-bombs.

Murray seemed not to mind. In fact, it might have added to his resolve. After all, it would be embarrassing if the guy your fiancée cussed out then beat the crap out of you.

And there's this: We all remember that episode in which Wawrinka lit into Mirka Federer, Roger's wife, for audibly calling him a "crybaby" during his ATP World Tour Finals clash. Federer won that match, and that's exactly what Murray needs to do, too.

Statistical details: Djokovic leads the rivalry 15-8, but the men are 2-2 in Grand Slam finals (Murray prevailed at the U.S. Open in 2012 and at Wimbledon in 2013). Djokovic has won seven majors; Murray has been in eight major finals but has won just twice. Djokovic has won 26 return games in his six matches, Murray has broken his opponent's serve 34 times. Each man has played 20 sets.

The numbers suggest that this one ought to be close.