NFL Insiders Predict: Week 9 upsets, AFC West race, more

— -- Our NFL Insiders predict Week 9's biggest upsets and fantasy flops/sleepers. Plus: Which team will finish atop the AFC West? Which division leader is most likely to miss the playoffs? And which rookie not named? Ezekiel Elliott or Dak Prescott has been the most impressive?

What's your biggest upset for Week 9?

Matt Bowen, NFL writer:?After watching the Vikings' offensive line struggle the past two weeks, I'll take the Lions (and the 6.5 points) on the road in Minnesota. The Vikings are soft on the edge right now; they can't get the ground game going and quarterback Sam Bradford is starting to show signs of panic in the pocket. Yes, playing in Minnesota is tough. That place is no joke. But if Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford protects the ball, the Detroit defense can create field position and scoring opportunities.

John Clayton, senior NFL writer:?Los Angeles over Carolina. The Rams are rested after a bye week. Panthers center Ryan Kalil is banged up, and the line has to stop Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald, which will be tough. Quarterback Cam Newton was hit several times in last week's win over Arizona, but he took just one sack.

KC Joyner, NFL writer: Tampa Bay over Atlanta. It's a short week road game for a Falcons squad that ranks 29th in points allowed per game (28.9). Shootout games are 50-50 propositions, and the Buccaneers' offense can turn this into that type of contest.

Mike Sando, senior NFL writer:?The Lions can win at Minnesota with the Vikings coming off a short week and struggling on offense.

Aaron Schatz, editor-in-chief of Football Outsiders: The Giants opened as 3-point favorites at home against the Eagles, suggesting the two teams are equal. However, Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings have the Eagles still as the top team in the NFL (because of the Patriots' non-Brady games) and the Giants rank 12th. The Eagles have the best defense and special teams in the league this year and an upset at the Meadowlands is likely.

Who's your pick to win the AFC West, with Denver, Oakland and K.C. each having only two losses?

Bowen:?Raiders quarterback Derek Carr is a legit MVP candidate and the Chiefs might be the most complete team in the division, but I can't look past the Broncos' defense. With that pass rush and a secondary that consistently challenges routes, Denver is still the favorite to win the AFC West. That unit can take over games.

Clayton:?I still go with the Broncos. They have the best defense in the division and are getting enough out of quarterback Trevor Siemian. But with the way it is shaping up, all three teams could make the playoffs.

Joyner: The Chiefs, largely on the basis of their having the most favorable schedule. They face Jacksonville, Carolina and Tampa Bay over the next three weeks, with two of those games at home. That gives Kansas City a schedule buffer that is much more favorable than Denver's or Oakland's.

Sando: Kansas City was my pick before the season, and I'm sticking with the Chiefs. This is the only team in the division that can claim the following trifecta: a top-tier head coach, a veteran QB averse to turnovers and a defense that can rank among the NFL's best. This can be the most well-rounded team in the league as a result.

Schatz: I also picked Kansas City before the season, but Denver has clearly been the better team so far this year. The defense is still top-notch and the offense has been far better than we could have expected. Our DVOA ratings have Denver as the top team in the AFC -- again, because of the Patriots' non-Brady games -- and our playoff odds simulation has them winning the division about half the time, with Kansas City and Oakland each winning about 25 percent.

Which fringe fantasy player will shine?

Bowen:? Michael Thomas, WR, Saints. Thomas has been a solid flex play on fantasy rosters this season, but I'm moving him up to WR2 status this week against a 49ers defense giving up 24.0 points per game to opposing wide receivers. Thomas has seen 19 targets over the past two games, and might be the most consistent receiver for Drew Brees in the Saints' offense.

Clayton:? Don Jackson, RB, Packers. Green Bay's running game is non-existent; they have to get it going, and the Colts might be the right team to try it against. I expect Jackson to get more carries.

Joyner:? Case Keenum, QB, Rams.?Despite his atrocious performance in Week 7 against the Giants, Keenum still ranks tied for sixth in vertical yards per attempt (13.7 on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield). He can throw for 300 or more yards against a banged-up, talent-challenged Carolina secondary.

?Sando:? C.J. Prosise, RB, Seahawks. The rookie?is working his way into a more prominent role within the Seattle offense. Prosise has a chance to shine as a receiver out of the backfield as the Seahawks look for ways to manufacture offense. Prosise and teammate Christine Michael face a Bills defense that has given up double-digit fantasy points to Matt Forte (28), Jay Ajayi (27), David Johnson (22), Todd Gurley (14) and LeGarrette Blount (10).

Schatz:? Gary Barnidge, TE, Browns. Dallas has been one of the league's worst defenses against tight ends this year, so it's time for Barnidge to finally emerge from hibernation. Especially because he'll get plenty of garbage-time opportunities after Dak and Zeke have run up the score on the Browns.

Which division-leading team is most likely to miss the playoffs?

Bowen:?It has to be the Texans. With inconsistent play from quarterback Brock Osweiler (nine touchdowns, nine interceptions, 48.2 total QBR) and a defense giving up 125.8 yards rushing per game (29th in the NFL), the AFC South is up for grabs. Keep an eye on the Titans down the stretch.

Clayton:?I have to go with the Texans, though I still think they are the best team in the AFC South. The Titans are catching up, and they have a chance.

Joyner:?Houston. Osweiler ranks last in vertical pass Total QBR among passer rating qualified quarterbacks (34.0 on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield). Houston faces some strong passing games down the stretch, and Osweiler's abysmal performance here could cost them some potential wins.

?Sando:?Minnesota could fall apart if its offensive line fails to improve and Bradford gets hurt, both of which seem likely. With that in mind, the Packers and even the Lions could play well enough from this point forward to overtake the Vikings in the NFC North.

Schatz:?Houston, and it's not even close. It's very unlikely the AFC South will produce a wild-card team, so you've got to win the division to get into the postseason. Of course, the Texans are 5-3, but they rank just 30th in overall DVOA with the worst offense and special teams in the NFL. Tennessee, on the other hand, is 21st in DVOA and just one game behind -- and the Titans get to host Houston in Week 17 if the AFC South comes down to the final week.

Who's your biggest fantasy flop this week?

Bowen:? Tyrod Taylor, QB, Bills. Taylor plays the Seahawks, whose defense is giving up only 12.7 points per game to opposing quarterbacks (sixth in the NFL), and the Bills are banged up at the offensive skill positions. I'm going to take a pass on Taylor this week playing on the road in Seattle. That's not a good matchup for the Bills QB.

Clayton:? Marvin Jones, WR, Lions. The Vikings have a great pass defense -- opposing quarterbacks are completing just 56.8 percent of their passes against them, which ranks second in the league -- and they should be able to shut down Jones and the Lions.

Joyner:? LeSean McCoy or Mike Gillislee, RBs, Bills. A road trip to face a Seattle rushing defense that ranks tied for third in points allowed per game to opponents' running backs (12.0) is a recipe for underwhelming fantasy numbers.

?Sando:? Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans.?Ingram would normally be a sure bet against the 49ers, but his role appears to be in some short-term flux after a costly fumble against Seattle. Proceed with caution here.

Schatz: Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions.?The Vikings have generally shut down opposing quarterbacks all season, so I would expect a second straight down day for Stafford and the Detroit offense.

Which non-Cowboy rookie has impressed you the most?

Bowen:?After a great start to the season, Carson Wentz has cooled off over the past three games in Philadelphia. But we also are talking about a rookie who was thrown into the mix at quarterback despite limited reps in the preseason. We should expect Wentz to show signs of his inexperience; that's part of the learning curve in the pros. However, when you watch his tape, it's pretty clear that Wentz has a natural skill set for the position.

Clayton:?Chargers defensive end Joey Bosa. With four sacks in four games, he has shown that he was worthy of the No. 3 pick. He looks like a Pro Bowler already.

Joyner:?Wentz. His first four games might have been the best I've seen by a rookie quarterback. Even with his drop-off of late, it's clear Philadelphia has their quarterback of the future.

?Sando:?Wentz gets my votes based on how hard it is for a rookie quarterback to function decently. But purely from a performance standpoint, Bosa looks most impressive.

Schatz:?Bosa has been great since he started playing for the Chargers, but I want to highlight their other excellent rookie,? Hunter Henry. Rookie tight ends almost always struggle, but Henry has stepped right into San Diego's two-tight-end sets and is easily outplaying veteran Antonio Gates. He's seventh among tight ends in our DYAR stats, and has a 69 percent catch rate and 16.3 yards per reception compared to 59 percent and 7.0 yards per reception for Gates.