Is Nikola Jokic the best player not in the NBA All-Star Game?

— -- Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic didn't draw much attention as a "snub" when All-Star reserves were announced late last month. After all, Jokic was barely more than a month removed from coming off the bench for a sub-.500 team. At the time, Damian Lillard and potential first-timers Mike Conley, Joel Embiid and Rudy Gobert had stronger cases.

Yet as Jokic has extended his impressive play as starting center over a longer period of time, it's becoming tough to deny his production. With Denver scoring at an elite clip and Jokic putting up incredibly versatile numbers for a big man, it's worth asking whether he's the best player* not selected for Sunday's All-Star Game.

(The asterisk is for Chris Paul, who is unable to play and would have been selected if not for injury.)

Jokic, Nuggets surging since lineup change

Denver opened the season trying to start its two young centers, Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic, together. That combination forced Jokic to play exclusively on the perimeter and defend quicker power forwards, which hurt the Nuggets on both ends. According to NBA.com/Stats, they were outscored by an incredible 15.6 points per 100 possessions with Jokic and Nurkic on the court together.

Jokic's solution was to go to coach Michael Malone and ask to come off the bench, a role he played for the next month-plus. Jokic was more effective in a reserve role, averaging 11.6 points, 7.9 rebounds and 3.4 assists in just 24.3 minutes per game, but the team fared no better. The Nuggets were just 9-16 when Malone decided to move Jokic back into the starting lineup as starting center, replacing Nurkic, who was traded this weekend to the Portland Trail Blazers in a deal expected to be completed Monday.

Since making Jokic the starting center, Denver has gone 15-14 to move into eighth place in the Western Conference. In that span, only the Golden State Warriors have been better offensively than the Nuggets, and barely. Per NBA.com/Stats, the Warriors have a 114.6 offensive rating since December 15, as compared to 114.0 for Denver. No other team has scored better than 112.1 points per 100 possessions.

Remember, that includes the time Jokic hasn't played; he's missed four games due to injury or illness (the Nuggets have gone 1-3 in those games). With Jokic on the court, Denver's offensive rating since Dec. 15 is the best for any player on any team.

Individually, Jokic has averaged 21.0 points, 9.8 rebounds and 5.3 assists since becoming the Nuggets' starting center. According to Basketball-Reference.com, just 12 players in NBA history have surpassed 20 points, nine boards and five assists per game for a full season, with Russell Westbrook bidding to become the 13th this season.

For a center, Jokic is an incredible playmaker. He finds cutters from the high post with passes no other big man would even attempt. Jokic is averaging 6.7 assists per 36 minutes as a starting center, a mark matched or surpassed in a season by just three players Basketball-Reference.com lists as centers: Tom Boerwinkle, Vlade Divac and Sam Lacey.

To some extent, Jokic's passing has overshadowed his efficient scoring. He's making 63.0 percent of his 2-point tries, good for ninth among players with at least 100 attempts. The players ahead of Jokic are all big men who rarely stray from the basket; their average shot comes less than 2.5 feet away from the hoop, per Basketball-Reference.com. Jokic's average shot distance ( 9.3 feet) is nearly four times greater.

As Jokic is also an accurate foul shooter (at 82.4 percent), his true shooting percentage is up to .653, eighth-best among players with at least 100 shot attempts. Of the players ahead of him, only JaVale McGee has a usage rate higher than league average (which is 20 percent).

Jokic vs. other non-All-Stars

Enough on how great Jokic is. Let's stack him up with the other top players who didn't make the All-Star Game in a few key value metrics: win percentage (the per-minute version of my wins above replacement player stat), box plus-minus from Basketball-Reference.com and ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM).

Paul, clearly the best player of this group, doesn't really count. As noted, if not for an ill-timed injury, Paul would be in New Orleans this weekend. Jokic has a strong case as the best of the players who are healthy enough to play, ranking second to Paul across the board.

The best alternative cases belong to two other young centers, Embiid and Gobert, who also combine solid box-score production with strong team impact. Like Jokic, both Embiid and Gobert see their team's net rating drop by more than 10 points per 100 possessions when they hit the bench.

Embiid and Gobert are far superior defenders. Gobert leads the league in defensive RPM and Embiid has allowed the lowest percentage within five feet of any player who has defended at least five such shots per game according to SportVU tracking data on NBA.com/Stats. (Gobert ranks third in this same category; Jokic is last in this group.)

Yet both box-score stats and RPM regard Jokic's offensive advantage as larger than the edge Gobert and Embiid enjoy at the defensive end of the court. In part, that's because rim protection is the weakest part of Jokic's defense -- his best defensive attributes are more subtle. He rarely fouls and is a fine defensive rebounder, and the Nuggets are better in both categories with Jokic on the court. So his defensive RPM (plus-0.8) is below average for a center but not dreadful.

Mostly, however, it's because Jokic is such an incredible offensive player, particularly for a center. He ranks 11th in offensive RPM, and All-Star DeMarcus Cousins (10th) is the lone other true big man in the top 19. BPM puts him seventh in offensive rating, 2.7 points per 100 possessions better than the next-best big man (again Cousins). Relative to his position, that makes Jokic as good offensively as anyone in the league -- something Denver's recent success backs up.

Since he's played far fewer minutes than Gobert, Jokic may still not be as deserving an All-Star if we're talking about total contributions this season. But as far as the best player who won't suit up, I'll go with the guy who was coming off the bench two months ago.