Oregon now the national title favorite

ByDAVID PURDUM
November 3, 2014, 1:09 PM

— -- The Oregon Ducks are now the favorites to win the national championship at one Las Vegas sports book. The Ducks are the sixth team to play the role of favorite in a wide-open first season of the College Football Playoff era.

After blowing out Stanford 45-16 on Saturday, Oregon moved to 9-2 to win the national title at the Westgate SuperBook. The Ducks are followed by Alabama at 5-1. Florida State (7-1), Michigan State (7-1), Mississippi State (7-1) and TCU (8-1) also have single-digit odds at the SuperBook.

Alabama, Florida State and Ole Miss shared time as the favorite at the SuperBook during the first two months of the season, before Oregon took over this week. Georgia was the favorite last week at CG Technology's sports book, and Mississippi State was a co-favorite with Florida State last week at Caesars' sports book.

A bevy of teams remain in the mix, but potential elimination games loom in November. Auburn, at 10-1, is at Georgia on Nov. 15 and at Alabama on Nov. 29. Preseason long shots TCU and Kansas State collide Saturday, and top-ranked Mississippi State has games remaining at Alabama (Nov. 15) and at Ole Miss (Nov. 29). The Bulldogs are currently underdogs in both games.

Defending champion Florida State has the easiest remaining path to the four-team playoff, but has not been impressive.

"Florida State's probably not in my top 10," SuperBook head football oddsmaker Ed Salmons said, referring to his power rankings. "There's about seven or eight teams that are very close to each other at the top. Florida State isn't in that group."

Oregon, however, is among Salmons' top tier. The Ducks opened as 10-point favorites in a road test at No. 17 Utah this week and will be double-digit chalk in their final two regular-season games against Colorado and Oregon State. They'll also be favored in the Pac-12 championship game against any of the teams from the South Division.

Along with Oregon, TCU also is among elite teams in Salmons' power ratings. In January, the Horned Frogs opened at 500-1 to win the national championship at the SuperBook.

"We've got one $50 ticket on TCU at 500-1," Salmons said. "TCU has 18 tickets total. We do very well on them. In comparison, Ohio State has the most tickets with 176."

Ohio State's odds have been all over the map this season, opening at 12-1 and dropping to as low as 50-1 after quarterback Braxton Miller was ruled out for the season with an injury in August. The Buckeyes head into Saturday's showdown at Michigan State as 3-point underdogs. It's the first time this season and the third time in Urban Meyer's three seasons in Columbus that Ohio State has been an underdog. Meyer is 15-5 against the spread as an underdog in his career.

Back in July, the SuperBook had Michigan State as a 1.5-point favorite over the Buckeyes in one of the book's early games of the year lines. Salmons said he's taken six $1,000 limit bets on the Spartans and none on Ohio State over the past three months. But right now, he feels the teams are dead even.

"I guess you give Michigan State the edge, because Ohio State is asking a freshman quarterback to go on the road and win a big game," Salmons said. "It's a coin flip."