Predicting the MVP in each NFL division
— -- This summer, NFL Nation reporters are answering the biggest questions for every team in divisional roundtables.
Monday's question: Who will be the best newcomer?
Tuesday's question: Who is the rising star in each division?
Wednesday's question: Who is on the hottest seat in the division?
Thursday's question: Who will be the MVP for each division?
AFC East
Mike Rodak, Buffalo Bills reporter: I don't think it makes a whole lot of sense to pick someone other than Tom Brady . He has been on top of this division since 2003, aside from the 2008 season that he missed because of a knee injury. Until Brady slows down, there isn't a lot of discussion or analysis needed here.
James Walker, Miami Dolphins reporter: How can anyone pick against Patriots quarterback Tom Brady? He has been the king of the AFC East for the past 15 years. It looks like Brady will sit the first four games of the regular season, but that could enhance his case for division MVP. The Patriots have a tough early slate and could win just one or two games with unproven Jimmy Garoppolo under center in the opening month. But the Patriots will, as usual, catch fire once Brady returns. New England historically plays its best football in November and December. If Brady leads the favored Patriots to another division title while playing just 12 games, he gets my vote.
Rich Cimini, New York Jets reporter: Who will be the division MVP? My three leading candidates: Tom Brady, Tom Brady and Tom Brady. Even if he serves a four-game suspension, he will have enough of a season to lead his team to yet another division title. This is life in the AFC East.
Mike Reiss, New England Patriots reporter: Tom. Brady. Just had a flashback from each of the past 10-plus years, so until he shows signs of slippage, he gets the nod. If a non-Brady choice had to be made, it's Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski. We haven't seen anyone like him at the position in recent history, and possibly ever.
AFC North
Jeremy Fowler, Pittsburgh Steelers reporter: I've tried to think of which divisional player has the best chance to unseat a healthy Ben Roethlisberger over 16 games. Surprisingly, the best answer might be Andy Dalton, who was setting the best scoring pace among AFC North quarterbacks before missing the last month of the season with an injury. But with Roethlisberger, the numbers will always be there. He has averaged more than 300 passing yards per game the past two seasons. Dalton has had one impressive year, and Joe Flacco never has had more than 27 touchdowns in a regular season. Catching up to Big Ben will be difficult, unless a playmaker such as Antonio Brown, A.J. Green, Steve Smith Sr. or Le'Veon Bell is simply too explosive to ignore by season's end. Roethlisberger had 16 interceptions in 12 games last season, but if he keeps them down, then his accuracy and ability to stretch the field will prevail.
Coley Harvey, Cincinnati Bengals reporter: The AFC North MVP race will come down to quarterbacks. And at this stage, there are two who merit vastly more consideration than the others: Andy Dalton and Ben Roethlisberger. Yes, Andy Dalton. The days of wondering which version of Dalton the Bengals and your fantasy team will get week to week are over. Dalton proved with last year's scorching 10-2 start that he actually has what it takes to be a dominant passer. Before he suffered a season-ending thumb injury against Pittsburgh in Week 14 last season, Dalton was part of a league-wide MVP race. Had his season continued, there's no telling how the year would have ended for him and the Bengals. Roethlisberger probably is the sexiest pick for division MVP right now because he'll be back working with arguably the most complete offense in football. It's an offense so good that a legitimate case could be made for his top receiver, Antonio Brown, and running back, Le'Veon Bell, earning division MVP honors, too.
Jamison Hensley, Baltimore Ravens reporter: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers. The more popular picks will be Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. Here's going with the Pittsburgh offensive weapon who has the most to prove. Bell tore his medial collateral and posterior cruciate ligaments in the middle of the season, and he has set his sights on an Adrian Peterson-type recovery. He's one of the league's most dangerous and versatile players. It was only two years ago when Bell shattered the Steelers' record for catches by a running back while finishing second in the NFL in rushing. There's plenty of incentive for Bell to show he's not injury prone. If that wasn't enough, he's a free agent after the season. When you combine that type of talent and motivation, big things usually occur.
Pat McManamon, Cleveland Browns reporter: Easy. Assuming he stays healthy, Ben Roethlisberger, one of the five best in the league. Roethlisberger seems to improve every year with his understanding of Pittsburgh's offense and in his work with teammates. He and Antonio Brown have something special going on the field, and the Steelers start the season with Le'Veon Bell in the backfield. That's an outstanding trio, but Roethlisberger makes it all go. He's the division's runaway MVP.
AFC South
Tania Ganguli, Houston Texans reporter: Until someone can stop him, this will be J.J. Watt . He won NFL Defensive Player of the Year last season despite five torn core muscles in his torso, groin and inner thighs; a broken hand; and a herniated disk. And let's not forget the one game he played with a miserable flu. He didn't want to go on camera afterward, but Watt spoke to us after the game and was barely coherent. He had 17.5 sacks last season, eight batted passes and three forced fumbles. I understand the power of a quarterback, and a healthy Andrew Luck will offer competition here. But Watt is too dominant. He'll be healthier and better in 2016.
Paul Kuharsky, Tennessee Titans reporter: It will be a two-man race between a resurgent Andrew Luck and J.J. Watt. I know there were problems for Luck before he got hurt in 2015, but I still expect him to get back on track and be a lot like the guy who threw 40 touchdowns against 16 interceptions in 2014. With Rob Chudzinski as offensive coordinator, the Colts will re-examine what wasn't working and give Luck a great chance to excel.
Michael DiRocco, Jacksonville Jaguars reporter: DeAndre Hopkins finished third in the NFL in receptions (111) and receiving yardage (1,521) last season despite catching passes from three quarterbacks, the best of whom was Brian Hoyer. Imagine what he could do with some stability at that spot. The Texans believe Brock Osweiler is a significant upgrade. I'm skeptical of that, but all he needs to be is an average quarterback, and Hopkins will be even better than he was last season. Plus, the Texans added running back Lamar Miller in free agency and drafted receivers Will Fuller and Braxton Miller. Those additions should make things somewhat easier for Hopkins in 2016. He'll be in the conversation for NFL Offensive Player of the Year.
Mike Wells, Indianapolis Colts reporter: This is way too easy: J.J. Watt. He'll be the front-runner for the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year every season he remains healthy. We're talking about a player who has compiled 69 sacks, disrupted the timing of quarterbacks countless other times and forced 15 fumbles in the past four seasons. Watt gets the edge over Luck because he might catch a touchdown or two next season. Luck won't be on defense sacking any quarterbacks.
AFC West
Jeff Legwold, Denver Broncos reporter: It's time to take Von Miller at his word. And Miller has said no matter what happened in his contract negotiations, he planned on showing up and playing the 2016 season to "prove it was not just a one-year thing.'' He could have been talking about the Broncos' Super Bowl win or the level of play he reached in the team's postseason, a collection of sacks, forced fumbles and an interception of a Tom Brady pass that propelled the Broncos to the title. There is always a chance the Broncos and Miller's representatives don't get a deal done and Miller elects not to show up until Week 10 or so to play on the franchise tag. But logic, cooler heads and the realization of what cratering negotiations would mean to be Miller's career and the morale in the Broncos' locker room should prevail. The two sides should strike a deal that works. And if/when they do, it will set Miller free in Year 2 of Wade Phillips' defense with the bulk of the defensive cast in place from last season. If none of the above happens, look for the Raiders edge rusher Khalil Mack and quarterback Derek Carr to insert themselves into the conversation. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers and Broncos running back C.J. Anderson could rise to that level as well if their teams around them do enough to help them flourish.
Adam Teicher, Kansas City Chiefs reporter: This depends on which team wins the division. If the Broncos win the AFC West, it will be because of their defense, in which case linebacker Von Miller is the MVP. If the Raiders win the division, it will be because they've scored a lot of points, in which case quarterback Derek Carr is the MVP. In Kansas City, it stands to reason the defense will take a step back after losing cornerback Sean Smith and given the uncertainty of linebacker Justin Houston's availability. So if the Chiefs win the division, it will likely be because of their improved offense, and I'll go with wide receiver Jeremy Maclin. In the unlikely event the Chargers win the AFC West, the MVP couldn't be anyone other than quarterback Philip Rivers.
Paul Gutierrez, Oakland Raiders reporter: Von Miller's showing as Super Bowl 50 MVP with 2.5 sacks for 27 yards, including a pair of game-changing strip sacks of Cam Newton, six tackles, two quarterback hits and a pass defensed should carry over to this season, shouldn't it? Well, not if a contract squabble becomes a major distraction for him and team or if a Super Bowl hangover of epic proportions envelops the champs. But Miller, helped by the presence of DeMarcus Ware on the other side, is more than the most feared player in the AFC West; he is also the most productive, so to speak. His 60 sacks in 72 career games, including 25 sacks in the past two seasons, give opposing offensive coordinators sleepless nights, and that's before you realize he's averaged 14.5 sacks the three times he played in all 16 games. Division MVP? Miller, so long as all is right with his body and mind, has a chance to battle it out for league MVP with Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt.
Eric Williams, San Diego Chargers reporter: Oakland Raiders receiver Amari Cooper should take another step in his development, and it's hard to bet against consistent performers such as Von Miller and Philip Rivers. But I believe Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles will have a bounce-back year in 2016. Charles, of course, suffered a season-ending ACL injury in 2015, but at 29 years old, he still has plenty of gas left in the tank. Chiefs coach Andy Reid wants to run the football, which means Charles should get plenty of touches, both as a runner and in the passing game. Kansas City also has plenty of depth at running back in Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West, so Charles should not wear down during the year.
NFC East
Dan Graziano, New York Giants reporter: Tony Romo . I predict the Cowboys quarterback bounces back from last season's injuries and leads Dallas to a division title in a manner that looks a lot like his 2014 season. Romo and the offense might have to score even more points than they did that year to make up for what's happening on defense. But as long as Romo and Dez Bryant stay healthy, they are more than capable. Ezekiel Elliott will only help with Romo's protection and with diversifying the offense to take pressure off him.
Todd Archer, Dallas Cowboys reporter: Tony Romo. Because he has won just two playoff games in his career, he has not received a lot of appreciation among Cowboys fans. That seemed to change last year, when he missed 12 games and the Cowboys went 1-11 without him. The Cowboys went 3-1 in Romo's four starts in 2015 and are 15-4 with him the past two seasons. He had surgery on his twice-broken left collarbone in the offseason and is now healthy. The time off has allowed him to build more strength in his back, and he is moving around better than he has in recent years. With Romo, the Cowboys are the favorites in the NFC East and could be considered one of the best teams in the conference -- if he is healthy. That will be the key, because he has missed games in each of the past three seasons. Add a healthy Dez Bryant and first-round pick Ezekiel Elliott, plus the offensive line, and Romo should be poised for another huge season.
Phil Sheridan, Philadelphia Eagles reporter: If it's Sam Bradford or Carson Wentz, I will be really surprised, and we'll be having a very different conversation about this division next year. My vote goes to Giants quarterback Eli Manning . I think the change from Tom Coughlin to Ben McAdoo will rejuvenate Manning. If Odell Beckham Jr. has a great year, that will mean Manning also had a very good year, and quarterbacks tend to get a lot of MVP consideration. The other QBs in the division, Tony Romo and Kirk Cousins, have pretty good chances to earn MVP honors, but it just feels as if Manning is due to have one of his better seasons in 2016.
John Keim, Washington Redskins reporter: Tony Romo. Well, he might have been the MVP by his absence last season. The Cowboys won only four games with him missing almost all of 2015 due to injury, so if they improve and play the way many fear, then credit will go to Romo's return. With Romo, the Cowboys have a quarterback who can make plays on his own, and now he'll have a strong run game to help him, just as he did when Dallas won the division in 2014. Last season, Dallas had other issues besides just quarterback, and I still worry about Romo's health. But if he's healthy in 2016, he clearly makes a huge difference and could be the reason Dallas goes from first to worst and back to first.
NFC North
Rob Demovsky, Green Bay Packers reporter: Aaron Rodgers . By his standards, the Packers quarterback had a down year in 2015. Yet he still threw 31 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. A full complement of weapons -- the return of Jordy Nelson from his knee injury last August, the addition of free-agent tight end Jared Cook, a healthy offensive line and a more motivated Eddie Lacy -- should allow Rodgers to return to his NFL MVP-contending level of play. Given his offseason commitment to nutrition and conditioning -- no more cheese! -- he appears more motivated than ever.
Jeff Dickerson, Chicago Bears reporter: Aaron Rodgers. I know that answer is boring, but Rodgers is still the best overall player in the NFC North, slightly ahead of Adrian Peterson. Quarterbacks touch the ball every single play, so it's easier for them to win MVP awards, making this an easy pick. I also suspect Rodgers, who turns 33 in December, hears the clock ticking. That's hardly ancient by quarterback standards, but it has been five full seasons since the Packers won the Super Bowl. It's past time for Rodgers to win another one. He is an amazing talent, but the notion of such an incredible talent winning only one Super Bowl is disappointing. I'll argue that Brett Favre should have won more than one title in Green Bay. I expect Rodgers to be as motivated as ever in 2016. You can't play football forever. He needs another ring to further validate an otherwise extraordinary career.
Ben Goessling, Minnesota Vikings reporter: Assuming he's got more to work with around him than he did last season, it'll be Aaron Rodgers. With Jordy Nelson back and Eddie Lacy motivated to shake off a disappointing 2015 season, Rodgers should have more weapons around him, and the addition of Jared Cook could also help him out. The Packers' offensive line needs to protect him better than it did last season, but part of the problem there last year seemed to be Rodgers holding the ball rather than trusting a group of receivers he hadn't played with before. He'll be motivated to put things back together after what was probably his worst year as a starter, and if things hold up around him better than they did in 2015, he'll be the leading man in the division.
Michael Rothstein, Detroit Lions reporter: This is such a tough question, but with a healthy Jordy Nelson back and a slimmed-down Eddie Lacy, everything seems to be setting up for Aaron Rodgers to have another strong season where he'll contend for the NFL MVP award. That should be good enough to win the division's MVP award as well. While I don't necessarily think the Packers will win the division -- I mentioned in an earlier roundtable that I like the Vikings for that spot -- Rodgers clearly will show again how valuable he is as the Packers once again reach the playoffs and position themselves well for a big run in January.
NFC South
Jenna Laine, Tampa Bay Buccaneers reporter: I was so impressed with Cam Newton 's ability last season to overcome the loss of his top red-zone target, Kelvin Benjamin, without much of a hiccup. He made weapons out of players I wasn't expecting a lot from in undrafted free agent Corey Brown and Ted Ginn, who doubled his previous high of five touchdown catches. With Greg Olsen and Benjamin back on the field together, plus those new weapons and a more experienced Devin Funchess, I think Cam will be the division MVP again in 2016.
Vaughn McClure, Atlanta Falcons reporter: Cam Newton. I firmly believe Newton will come back with a vengeance following his Super Bowl disappointment. His every move is scrutinized probably as much as any player in the league, which should be added motivation. He struggled with the different looks the Broncos threw at him in the Super Bowl, but he is a year wiser. Not to mention, he has a great target back in Kelvin Benjamin, who missed last season with an ACL tear. In NFC South play last season, Newton completed 112 of 171 passes for 1,470 yards, 14 touchdowns, one interception and a passer rating of 117.3, the best for any quarterback in division play. Newton should enjoy similar or better success against the NFC South this season.
David Newton, Carolina Panthers reporter: I could dab around here and talk about how Julio Jones or Drew Brees could win it. But that would be silly. Cam Newton legitimately was the league MVP last season, and he could post even better numbers with the return of Kelvin Benjamin. Newton's development as a decision-maker and leader over the past three seasons has been amazing to watch. Now this might sound silly, too, but if you didn't limit this question to players I'd say the MVP is Carolina offensive coordinator Mike Shula. His ability to adapt Newton's skills as a runner and passer with a group of no-name wide receivers last season should have had him on a short list of candidates to become a head coach. His willingness to allow Newton to be himself is a great example of a coach playing to his players' strengths. With the return of Benjamin, Shula will have even more toys with which to dabble.
Mike Triplett, New Orleans Saints reporter: Panthers linebacker Luke Kuechly . I figured it would be too boring to simply choose Cam Newton, the reigning NFL MVP. So I decided to go way out on a limb instead and pick the 2013 NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Although I just made the case in last week's roundtable that Newton is the more valuable Panther of the two, I wouldn't be surprised to see Newton fall back to earth a little bit this season with defenses more determined than ever to slow him down. So Carolina might need Kuechly and the defense to lead the way to a fourth-straight NFC South title. Drew Brees, Julio Jones or Jameis Winston could certainly earn this honor if one of them leads his team to the playoffs, but I see all three of them falling just short with 8-9 wins apiece.
NFC West
Josh Weinfuss, Arizona Cardinals reporter: This will be a repeat award for Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer . He was arguably (but who can really argue against this?) the division MVP last season, setting career highs in passing yards, touchdowns and passer rating while leading the Cardinals to a 13-3 record and a berth in the NFC Championship Game. He was even in the conversation for the NFL MVP deep into the season, along with New England's Tom Brady and Carolina's Cam Newton. Palmer will just do it again. The Cardinals' roster is largely intact, with all the players who scored an offensive touchdown and caught a pass from Palmer last season. Having that kind of experience return in such a complex offense will help Palmer build on last season quicker than he would have had there been new players added to the mix. And that will allow Palmer, should he stay healthy, to have a better season than in 2015.
Nick Wagoner, Los Angeles Rams reporter: In general, choosing an MVP comes down to picking the best player on the best team, unless someone has a record-breaking year. Todd Gurley would be a dark horse if the Rams can find a way to contend for the division title, and if they do, it's almost certain Gurley would be the biggest reason for that. The decision here comes down to Carson Palmer and Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson. Both drive the two best teams and offenses in the NFC West. Palmer would have won this imaginary award in 2015, but 2016 is the year that Wilson claims the crown. Going into last season, Seattle's offense still looked to be centered on Marshawn Lynch. But with Lynch battling injuries, Wilson became the focal point and succeeded. Nobody in the league played better over the season's final half than Wilson, who had a league-best and outrageous 91.3 QBR from Week 11 on. Now, with full knowledge that the offense is his; with Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse and Tyler Lockett established as strong receiving threats; and with tight end Jimmy Graham back from injury, Wilson should ascend to the top of the NFC West and potentially be a legitimate contender for the NFL's MVP honor.
Michael Wagaman, San Francisco 49ers reporter: Todd Gurley, provided he can stay healthy. Gurley is not only the best running back in the division, but it's conceivable he could make a run at the NFL rushing title in 2016. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson also will be in the discussion at the end of the season, and it's possible Jared Goff might get some consideration, too, depending on how quickly he adapts to the pro level. Gurley, however, just might be the best player period in the NFC West. And he's entering just his second season in the NFL.
Sheil Kapadia, Seattle Seahawks reporter: Russell Wilson. He's coming off a season in which he threw for 34 touchdowns against eight interceptions and led the NFL in passer rating. At 27, Wilson is in the prime of his career, returns his top four pass-catchers from 2015 and has never missed a game or even a practice. There's the obvious question mark of the offensive line, but Wilson has shown in the past that he can produce even when the protection isn't perfect. He can operate from the pocket, get the ball downfield, escape potential sacks and make throws on the move. Wilson right now is the full package, and all signs this offseason suggest he's in store for another monster season.
