5-on-5 predictions: Cavs' chances of coming back to beat Warriors?
— -- Back on their home court in Cleveland, can LeBron James and the Cavaliers find an answer for the Golden State Warriors?
How important is Kevin Love's absence? And who is the NBA Finals MVP favorite so far?
Our 5-on-5 team forecasts the Finals entering Game 3.
1. What's the most important thing to watch for Cleveland going forward?
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: Will the Kevin Love injury force the Cavs to play the style they should have been playing all along, namely a blue-collar, defensive, grit 'n' grind style?
It can be difficult for any coach, let alone a rookie coach with less than 82 games to his résumé, to abandon what has been very successful for him thus far, but if the Cavs are to have any shot at making this respectable, they have to abandon this silly delusion that they can play an up-tempo, high-octane, offense-oriented game against the Warriors.
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: The offense has been so vanilla that I've wanted to reach through the television screen and move guys around with my hands. The Cavs will be in rhythm when Kyrie Irving is making plays himself, not off LeBron.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: The Cavaliers need to bring more energy. In Game 2, the Warriors seemed to beat the Cavs to every 50-50 ball. And while the Warriors are gang rebounding, some Cavaliers seem entirely uninterested in rebounding or boxing out. Kyrie Irving's habit of not running back in transition doesn't help, either.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: 3-point shooting. I have a hard time seeing the Cavaliers winning without making at least 10 3-pointers, and that means attempting a lot more than the 22 per game Cleveland is shooting so far in the Finals. Good opportunities will probably remain hard to come by against the Warriors' defense. Still, that has never stopped J.R. Smith before. Let it fly!
2. What's the most important thing to watch for Golden State going forward?
Pelton: Golden State was able to win at home without strong performances by the Splash Brothers. That might not be the case on the road. Per NBA.com/Stats, Warriors players who are not part of the Death Lineup have averaged 37.0 points on incredible 55.3 percent shooting at home in the playoffs. On the road, that production drops to 32.1 points per game and 47.8 percent shooting.
Elhassan: Can the Warriors avoid the hubris that has plagued them whenever things are going really well? The Warriors have a bad habit of upping the degree of difficulty on their passes and shots whenever they are brimming with confidence, often leading to unforced turnovers and misses. They're 2-5 in Game 3s over the past two seasons, and have lost four consecutive Game 3s. This is a chance to end the series, effectively. Will they capitalize?
Engelmann: Given the Warriors have won the past seven meetings against the Cavs, they just need to keep doing what they're doing. Maybe I'd be a little more cautious with playing the stars big minutes to avoid unnecessary injury risk. If Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson can find their shooting stroke, it'd be an obvious plus.
Doolittle: Will the Warriors at any point look remotely stressed by what they are trying to achieve? Unless they do, it's tough to get worked up over any particular strategic aspect of the matchup. And that's up to the Cavs.
Haberstroh: Can Curry and Thompson find their form? They'll need the extra boost with the Cavs' home court. Shaun Livingston and Draymond Green aren't dropping 20-plus every game.
3. From 0 to 10: How important is Kevin Love to the Cavs' chances?
Update: Love is expected to miss Game 3 after suffering a concussion in Game 2, according to ESPN's Marc Stein.
Pelton: Maybe a 7? For all the talk of Love's deficiencies, the Cavaliers have been far more competitive in this series with him on the court. According to NBA.com/Stats, Cleveland has been outscored by "just" 19.6 points per 100 possessions with Love on the court. That net rating balloons to minus-44.3 with Love on the bench -- better only than LeBron James' (minus-45.0). So while Love might not be the solution, he's definitely not the Cavaliers' problem.
Doolittle: 9. Cleveland needs all of its primary pieces to be functioning at expected levels. They've already tried this without Love.
Engelmann: 5. Love's stats from Games 1 and 2 weren't very good: He averaged just 11 points, with a true shooting percentage of only 45. In Game 2, it seemed the Cavs' rotation needed a serious shakeup. With Love ruled out, it may force coach Tyronn Lue to get creative with lineups, which might actually end up helping Cleveland.
Elhassan: 8. But not for the reason you think. Going back to my answer from Question 1, Love's availability makes Lue's misguided strategy more appealing to him. By not playing, it would almost force Lue's hand to turn to the strategy he should have been employing to begin with.
Haberstroh: 5. He clearly hasn't helped very much thus far, and this isn't a great matchup for him. They need more 3-point shooting, but Frye is a willing and more than capable replacement.
4. Which of these numbers is closest to your own estimate?
A. Golden State, 89 percent chance to win series (according to FiveThirtyEight, PredictWise)
B. Golden State, 92 percent chance to win series (according to ESPN's Basketball Power Index)
Pelton: B. And I'd probably put it higher than that, given how easily Golden State won the first two games. At this point, playoff results are the only evidence these teams are more closely matched than the typical teams in a 2-0 series -- and the team with home-court advantage wins those better than 94 percent of the time.
Doolittle: A. We will know on Wednesday if this is going to be a series. My barber, Milosh, made fun of me for picking the Cavs. Milosh is never right.
Engelmann: A. I think Cleveland would win the series more often than just eight times out of 100. Home teams have won 12 of 15 games since the conference finals began, so I expect the Cavs to put up much more of a fight in front of their home crowd. It's not too unlikely that the series goes back to Oakland tied at 2.
Elhassan: B. If the Warriors take their opponent seriously, there's virtually no chance Cleveland can beat them. A Game 3 win would solidify in everyone's mind that these Finals are over, even if there remains the formality of a fourth game to play.
Haberstroh: A. Given that Curry is a few weeks removed from dealing with a sprained MCL that nearly jeopardized the season, we know all too well that injuries can change things in a split second. I'll side on less than 9 out of 10.
5. Who wins the series and in how many games?
Haberstroh: Warriors in 5. The Cavs should get a game at home. J.R. Smith and Frye should have great 3-point shooting nights and the Warriors can have a collective off night. But only one night. The rest is Dubs.
Elhassan: Warriors in 5. As much as I think they are fully capable of sweeping the series (in resounding fashion, no less), I just have a gut feeling they'll drop one out of pure carelessness.
Doolittle: Cavs in 6. There's stubbornness in this, I must acknowledge, since I picked the Cavs from the beginning. But I think with adjustments, the Cavs' offense can get rolling, as it was before the Finals. The maligned supporting cast must step up, and that's what will mark Game 3.
Engelmann: Warriors in 5. Given that Vegas has put the spread at close to zero points for Game 3 in Cleveland, the most likely outcome of the next two games is each team winning one. The Warriors, then, will seize the opportunity to finish the series at home in Game 5.
Pelton: Warriors in 5. With two chances at home, I still think Cleveland wins one of them to send the series back to Oakland. However, it probably better be Game 3, because a good effort is going to be tough to muster down 3-0 amid the noise about breaking up the Cavaliers' roster.
BONUS: Who's your early NBA Finals MVP favorite?
Elhassan: Andre Iguodala's defensive mastery continues to foil LeBron James. Even though Curry's mere presence on the floor makes the Warriors' offense so much easier to run, it is Iguodala's pestering of James that stymies Cleveland from putting together anything meaningful on the offensive end.
Doolittle: Draymond Green. He epitomizes what the NBA has become: Finding guys who fit the prototype of a position but can do the things the prototypes of the other positions do.
Pelton: Draymond Green, and I don't think it's particularly close at this point. He leads the Warriors in points, rebounds, assists and steals, so it's his award to lose at this point.
Engelmann: Based on the stats, it has to be Draymond Green. Not only has he averaged by far the most points on this Warriors team (22 per game versus Curry's 14.5), he also leads the team in rebounds, assists and steals per game.
Haberstroh: Draymond Green. A second-round pick Finals MVP? Now that's a cool story. He has the box-score numbers, the story and two-way impact to warrant the precious award so far.
