5-on-5 predictions: How likely is Spurs upset of streaking Warriors?
— -- What should the Warriors and Spurs fear most in this series? How likely is an upset?
Our 5-on-5 crew debates and predicts the West finals.
1. What should worry the Warriors most in this series?
Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider:?Conditioning and chemistry. The Spurs ran circles around the Rockets with supersubs Patty Mills and Jonathon Simmons taking on greater roles and playing with their signature energy. Can they do the same against a potentially rusty Warriors team?
Of course, the Warriors play with as much movement as anybody, but they haven't played a game in almost a week and the Jazz ranked as the slowest-pace team in the NBA.
One place the Warriors need to bring the energy: the boards. The Spurs ranked as the sixth-best rebounding team in the NBA this season. Look for Pau Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge and David Lee to pound the boards, where the Warriors are vulnerable.
Kevin Arnovitz, ESPN.com:?Worry is a relative condition when you're the Golden State Warriors -- such is the luxury of boasting the NBA's No. 1 offense and second-ranked defense. But if you want to pick nits, Golden State's pretty offense, when it's not well-tuned, has a tendency to turn the ball over. Against San Antonio's league-leading defense, that could prove periodically dangerous.
While they're at it, the Warriors should also keep an eye on the defensive glass. In short, if possessions are evenly distributed between the two teams, the W's shouldn't have any problems -- the trouble comes if they spot the Spurs chances.
Micah Adams, ESPN Stats & Info:?A domino from Kawhi Leonard?missing Game 6 was that it gave LaMarcus Aldridge an opportunity to dominate in ways he has not almost all season. If Aldridge can carry that Game 6 performance over into this series, he's the type of offensive player who can give Golden State trouble when it goes small.
Aldridge has the height to shoot over Draymond Green and has 25 pounds on Kevin Durant. Combine that with his underrated rim protection -- opponents shot 44 percent against him at the rim in the regular season, identical to marks allowed by both Rudy Gobert and Green -- and a locked-in Aldridge is the type of two-way big who could potentially give Golden State problems.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider:?The Warriors are playing a San Antonio team that's better than before because of Tony Parker's injury. I've called for an increase of Patty Mills' minutes, and Parker's injury forced Gregg Popovich into going that way. With Mills on the floor, the ball is moving a lot better, the Spurs play better defense and he is a 3-point threat, which opens up the lane for others. Parker's injury was a blessing in disguise for the Spurs.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider:?San Antonio's depth of quality defenders. If Leonard is healthy, the Spurs have him, Danny Green and Simmons as good-to-great individual defenders on the perimeter, which allows them to match up with Stephen Curry, Durant and Klay Thompson better than just about anyone in the NBA.
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2. What should worry the Spurs most in this series?
Arnovitz:?The fact that there isn't a style, pace or scheme they can adopt that the Warriors can't match. Want to slow it down if you're San Antonio? Golden State will gladly run all those nice little splits and a healthy diet of KD pin-downs. Want to go big? The W's do some of their finest work against teams that sacrifice mobility and stretch in an effort to bully them with size and strength.
The Spurs are the NBA's premier problem solvers, but the Warriors are the NBA's unsolvable formula. Even if you find the answer, two new problems rise to the surface. ?
Engelmann: Other than the fact that they're playing one of the best teams of all time? Obviously, the Warriors' average margin of victory in the playoffs thus far, plus-16.5, is concerning, as is the fact that the Warriors have no significant players injured, unlike a year ago. To make matters worse, in games they lost against the Rockets, the Spurs were buried by (semi-) transition 3s. That aspect of the game might get even uglier against the Warriors.
Adams:?The Warriors' ability to make them pay for aggressively closing out on shooters. The Spurs swung their series against Houston by selling out and committing hard on any and all 3-point opportunities. When it comes to finishing inside, however, the Warriors are vastly superior to the Rockets, who shot just 51 percent in the West semifinals in the paint, worst among all teams in that round. This was especially evident in Game 6, when Houston made just nine 2-pointers and was a paltry 8-for-32 inside the paint.
The Warriors present a "pick your poison" option that Houston simply did not in that all of their shooters have the ability to put the ball down and finish inside. Golden State's 61 percent field goal percentage in the paint ranked first in the NBA in the regular season and was better than any other team's over the past three years.
Haberstroh:?Kawhi Leonard's health. He dominated the Warriors in the opening week of the season to the tune of 35 points and 5 steals in 32 minutes, but he wasn't as strong in their matchup in late March, when the Warriors hit their groove without Durant.
I wonder how much they'll try to put Simmons on Durant and hide Leonard initially as he gets his footing back. If he starts out on Durant, expect a slew of off-ball screens and pin-downs to force Leonard to pivot on his bum ankle. But where do you put Leonard if he's not guarding Durant? Not many options if the Spurs stay big with Gasol and Aldridge. But that's the Warriors. There are no good options, just least terrible ones.
Pelton:?Their ability to create offense in the half court. Game 6 against Houston aside, San Antonio relies heavily on Leonard creating shots one-on-one. Both Kevin Durant and Leonard's ankle injury could make that more difficult in this series. The Spurs were able to compensate for Leonard's absence in large part by playing through the post against the Rockets' small lineup. That won't likely be an effective option against the Warriors.
3.?Fact or Fiction: San Antonio should be encouraged by its three games versus Golden State.
Adams: Fact. In the only two games that actually mattered, the Spurs more than proved they can hang. Not only were they the only team to build multiple 20-point leads against the Warriors this season -- the rest of the league combined to do it just three times in 79 games.
Pelton:?Fact. Given the wild extremes among the three games -- and the relative meaninglessness of the game where both teams were without multiple starters -- you can make the season series say just about anything you want. If you're looking for hope for San Antonio, the win spoiling Golden State's opening night provides it. If you're looking for proof the Warriors will dominate, their comeback road win without Durant is sufficient.
Engelmann:?Fiction. The first game, a Spurs blowout, happened too long ago. The second game didn't feature fully intact lineups, and the third game was a Spurs loss, so there's very little to be encouraged about. Even if the Spurs had won all of these games, regular-season head-to-head records have little, if any, predictive ability when it comes to forecasting playoff series at this stage of the postseason.
Haberstroh:?Fiction. You can toss out that October rout. It was seven months ago. And that's before we consider Tony Parker's and Kawhi Leonard's injuries. (Though it's true that Parker was mostly a nonfactor in the regular-season series.)?I guess they can feel nice about earning large leads against a dominant team, but the personnel has changed dramatically in each of the games.
Arnovitz:?Fiction. The Spurs are far too smart to find encouragement from something they pulled from the freezer in a Ziploc bag dated Oct. 25. Don't believe me? Just ask Pop at his next availability!
4.?Which is closest to your view?
A. Warriors 81 percent likely to win series (Basketball Power Index)
B. Warriors 87 percent likely to win series (FiveThirtyEight)
C. Warriors 92 percent likely to win series (Vegas odds)
Haberstroh:?C. Vegas does a better job in some cases than the systems that don't take injuries into account. In Game 6, the Spurs dispatched the Rockets in 2014 Finals-esque fashion, but Leonard's gimpiness looms large for this series. Of course, Leonard could add another arm and I wouldn't be surprised. He's a machine.
Adams:?C. As good as the Spurs looked at times against Golden State in the regular season, I just don't think they have the horses on offense to stay close. In that game back in October -- the Spurs' 29-point win at Oracle -- Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson shared the floor for 23 minutes and outscored the Spurs by five. Outside of Leonard, I just don't think Aldridge, Mills, Gasol et al pack enough punch to seriously threaten Golden State over a series.
Pelton:?I would go with C. The statistical projections can't account for Leonard's health, which certainly works in Golden State's favor to some extent. (How much it helps is debatable.) I also think the Vegas odds reflect the Warriors' ability to improve as they tighten their rotation, something that benefits them more than San Antonio.
Engelmann:?A. Even assuming the Vegas line for Game 1 is correct -- the Warriors are currently favored by a whopping 10.5 points -- my simulations, using that assumed spread, show the Spurs having a 17 percent chance of beating the Warriors. Plus, I don't think the Parker injury hurts the Spurs, and I think Leonard will be 100 percent soon. Even if not, Jonathon Simmons showed against the Rockets that he can be a really valuable contributor.
Arnovitz:?C. Betting against the Spurs over the past decade has been a house bet, so it's with the greatest caution that I say that I can't recall a series in the past 20 years in which the Spurs were at a greater disadvantage. As resourceful as the Spurs are, this feels more like 10-1 than 8-1.
5.?Who wins, and in how many games?
Adams:?Warriors in 5. As much as I'm tempted to say the Warriors will sweep, the Spurs have earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to taking a game or two, especially after that 39-point road shellacking they put on Houston without their best player. No team in NBA history has ever started a postseason 12-0, so a Warriors sweep would equate to true history in the making. While Golden State is without a doubt in a groove, I expect San Antonio's brilliance to steal a game.
Arnovitz:?Golden State in 5. In the past 20 years, the Spurs have never relied more greatly on a singular talent than they currently lean on Leonard, and he's not 100 percent. Against any top seed that would be daunting -- and this is not your garden-variety top seed.
Haberstroh:?Warriors in 5. I just don't see how the Spurs will keep up with the rested Warriors over a seven-game series. The Warriors might be rusty in the first game, but Leonard's ankle evens things out in my eyes. I see the Warriors breezing their way to their third Finals in three years; it'll be a much less taxing conference finals than what Durant put them through last season.
Pelton:?Warriors in 5. I won't be surprised if the Spurs make it a longer series, but Leonard's health will make it more difficult for them to win one of the first two games of the series, and that would leave them in need of a home sweep to have a realistic chance of extending the series at least six games. I think Golden State would grab a split in San Antonio in that scenario.
Engelmann: Warriors in 5. They're firing on all cylinders, needing just eight games to finish off their first two playoff opponents -- and they won seven of those games by double digits. No one can stop them this season, I think.
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