Which quarterbacks could be on a new roster in 2017?
— -- It's too early to make proclamations about what the NFL quarterback market will look like in 2017. It's not too early to start wondering, though, about the makeup of that market and which players have to produce over the remaining 11 weeks of the season to avoid ending up there.
By my count, there are close to a dozen teams that could enter the market, either by moving on from their current starter and/or dangling a player with significant trade value. Others have?passers on the hot seat who are unlikely to be moved, either for contractual or logistical reasons.
While we're only five weeks into the season, plenty has already happened. Eight teams have already had to change quarterbacks because of injury or poor play, and that doesn't include the Eagles, who traded away Sam Bradford a week before the season started. Five different players have thrown passes for the Browns, and the best option might be their top wide receiver, Terrelle Pryor. There are teams with no hope at quarterback and others that?somehow have too many passers to play with one football. Let's run through the players who might be on the market in the coming year, weigh the?performance and financial factors and project their chances of being on a new roster (or with a new job) come 2017:
Colin Kaepernick, 49ers
Let's begin with the league's most recent quarterback to be moved into a starting role. Blaine Gabbert had been effective as a runner in Chip Kelly's system after beating Kaepernick out for the starting job in training camp, but he was woefully inconsistent as a passer, regularly missing open receivers for easy completions. It wouldn't be the first time Kelly chose the wrong passer in camp; remember that he picked?Michael Vick as his starter over Nick Foles in 2013, only for Foles to post a 27-2 touchdown-interception ratio after making his way into the starting lineup after Vick was injured.
The other part of the equation, of course, is that Kaepernick needed to restructure his deal in order to squelch fears about his future. Kaepernick's contract held base salaries, which were guaranteed in case of injury, and given the stack of injuries Kaepernick went through in 2015, the 49ers were hesitant to insert him into the starting lineup without waiving those guarantees. Kaepernick is agreeing to waive those guarantees in exchange for a shortened deal, which would include a player option for 2017 if he hits certain playing-time parameters.
Kaepernick's future is totally up in the air: He was a superstar as recently as 2013 and would seem to be a good fit in Kelly's scheme given his ability as a runner, but he was mediocre in 2014 and a mess last season before undergoing season-ending surgery. Kelly hasn't shown long-term loyalty to a quarterback at the college or professional levels, trusting more in his scheme than any individual passer. It's not impossible to imagine Kelly trying to acquire Marcus Mariota from the Titans if Mariota continues to struggle in Tennessee, but for now, he has to try to make do with the quarterbacks he has.
Likelihood of Kaepernick leaving: 75 percent
Tony Romo, Cowboys
I wrote about Romo's future with the Cowboys at length earlier this week. It's not out of the question that the Cowboys hold on to Romo this offseason. It's also hardly difficult to imagine the Cowboys settling on rookie Dak Prescott and trading Romo, even if it means eating $19 million in dead money on their 2017 cap, by virtue of what it will clear up in the subsequent seasons. In Romo's case, his future in Dallas may depend more upon how Prescott performs than on how Romo plays if the veteran gets an opportunity later this year.
The market for Romo at his 2017 salary of $14 million might be slim. Rebuilding teams like the 49ers, Bears and Browns wouldn't have much use for a 37-year-old quarterback with a gruesome recent history of injuries. A more plausible landing spot for Romo is the AFC East, where the Dolphins and Jets could each be looking for new quarterbacks in 2017. Miami, with a better cap situation, would likely have the inside track on Romo between those two.
Likelihood of Romo leaving: 50 percent
Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
Now let's get to the current quarterback in Miami. Despite preseason speculation suggesting Tannehill had finally found his quarterback whisperer in new head coach Adam Gase, he has been a mess this season. Tannehill has played one half of excellent football this season, and it came while trailing by?several touchdowns to the Patriots in Week 2. During that second half, Tannehill went 22-of-27 for 273 yards with two touchdowns and a pick. Over the rest of the season, the Texas A&M product has been far worse:?78-of-129 for 999 yards with four touchdowns and six interceptions. He has also fumbled four times and is taking sacks on 9.8 percent of his dropbacks. Miami's offense is certainly flawed, as evidenced by the Dolphins' rotating through four running backs at times and cutting three offensive linemen on Tuesday, but Tannehill isn't helping.
The structure of the deal Mike Tannenbaum gave to Tannehill basically requires the Dolphins to make a decision on their starting quarterback in March. If they keep Tannehill on the roster, he's guaranteed an additional $14.8 million on top of the $3.5 million the Dolphins already owe him for 2017. The Fins would owe Tannehill a total of $20.3 million of their cap room if he's on the roster after the fifth league day of 2017 and would shave $9.9 million off that figure by trading or releasing him.
At the moment, given how poorly he's playing and the range of options likely to be available, I suspect the Dolphins would part ways with Tannehill, which would make him a buy-low target for the aforementioned Browns and 49ers, both of whom have head coaches who would possess an interest in a mobile passer. If Tannehill?improves and performs like a league-average quarterback the rest of the season, it's more plausible that Miami would keep him for one final season and turn 2017 into a must-win campaign.
Likelihood of Tannehill leaving: 40 percent
Jay Cutler, Bears
The writing is already on the wall for Cutler, who has gotten precious little public support from management since suffering a thumb injury two weeks ago. Brian Hoyer has thrown for 699 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in Cutler's absence, and while I am skeptical that Hoyer is the long-term solution in Chicago, the Bears'?front office seems ready to use the slightest pretense to cut bait on a player (and contract) they inherited from previous regimes.
The Bears are in excellent salary-cap shape, so while they would be able to afford onerous amounts of dead money by moving on from Cutler, they won't need to do so. The Bears will be on the hook for just $2 million if they trade or release Cutler, moves which would create $14 million in cap space versus Cutler's 2017 cap hold of $16 million. Although there's no guaranteed money remaining in Cutler's deal, it's unlikely that any team would want to trade for Cutler on what amounts to a four-year, $72.7 million deal. Cutler is likely to be an unrestricted free agent come March without requiring any draft-pick compensation.
There would be a market for Cutler as an unrestricted free agent, given that he has been a productive quarterback as recently as 2015. Cutler enjoyed his season with Adam Gase, and if the Dolphins do part ways with Tannehill, he would loom as an obvious fit for Miami.
Likelihood of Cutler leaving: 90 percent
Brock Osweiler, Texans
This year's most expensive free-agent quarterback is suggesting that the shiny glow of a new passer isn't as glamorous as it's cracked up to be. Osweiler was an abject mess against the dominant Minnesota defense on Sunday, needing garbage time to make it to 184 passing yards and a touchdown on 42 attempts. The Vikings intercepted him once?and left at least one other interception on the field thanks to a brief moment of generosity from Harrison Smith.
Osweiler has had stretches of competence -- he looked good for a half against the Bears in the opener and started off hot against the Titans in Week 4 -- but there are also quarters or halves where he gets out of rhythm and looks like a replacement-level quarterback. Despite the presence of DeAndre Hopkins and a breakout debut by exciting rookie first-rounder Will Fuller, Osweiler's numbers are brutal. He's completing 58 percent of his passes and averaging 6 yards per attempt and has thrown more interceptions (seven) than touchdowns (six). Sunday was the first day I began to see chatter suggesting that the Texans needed to bench their new starter.
It's too early to judge Osweiler, but even if the Texans regret their free-agent acquisition, he's not going anywhere. Houston guaranteed Osweiler's $19 million salary for 2017 upon signing, meaning that the only way they can get out of paying Osweiler would be if somebody wanted to absorb his contract in a trade. If Osweiler plays poorly enough that the Texans want to trade him after this season, nobody will want that deal. Houston won't have a ton of cap space in 2017, which will make it difficult to acquire an impactful backup to compete with Osweiler. In all likelihood, the Texans'?2017 starter will be Osweiler or 2014 fourth-rounder Tom Savage.
Likelihood of Osweiler leaving: 1 percent
Carson Palmer, Cardinals
A borderline MVP candidate last year, Palmer is off to a frustrating start in 2016. He looks much more like the player the Cardinals acquired basically as a salary dump before the 2013 season. His completion percentage is down from 63.7 percent to 58.8 percent, his interception rate has spiked from 2.0 percent to 3.3 percent, and he's averaging 7.5 yards per attempt after hitting for 8.7 last year. Palmer's offensive line has been troublesome, and he suffered a concussion in Week 4 that caused him to miss the Cardinals' win over San Francisco.
It's too early to say with any likelihood that the Cardinals should part ways with the 2003 first overall draft pick. It's worth noting that if he continues to struggle, the one-year extension Arizona gave Palmer before the season will really prevent them from making a change. Had they left Palmer's contract as it was, they could have traded or cut Palmer this offseason and reduced his 2017 cap charge from $20.7 million to $8.8 million in dead money. Now, Palmer's 2017 cap hit is guaranteed at $22.9 million, regardless of what the Cardinals decide to do with him. Arizona could only get out of the $8.2 million in base salary due to Palmer if they trade him away.
Barring another serious injury, Palmer should be starting for Arizona in 2017. Plans can change quickly, though. Remember that when the Cardinals signed Drew Stanton in 2013, Bruce Arians claimed to be very comfortable with the longtime backup being "our guy" as the starter. He traded for Palmer a month later.
Likelihood of Palmer leaving: 10 percent
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jets
Remember how essential it was for the Jets to re-sign Fitzpatrick to have a chance to be competitive?in 2016? Well, that has fallen by the wayside. Fitzpatrick has thrown a league-leading 10 interceptions in five games, is completing less than 58 percent of his passes and comes into this week 24th in Total QBR. He might already be benched if it weren't for the fact that Fitz's replacement would be either? Geno Smith, Bryce Petty?or? Christian Hackenberg.
The good news is that Fitzpatrick's contract automatically voids after the season. The bad news is that the Jets will pay for the privilege. The only way the Jets were able to fit Fitzpatrick at his desired $12 million price tag under their 2016 cap without restructuring any deals was to give Fitzpatrick a $2 million base salary and a $10 million signing bonus as part of a two-year deal. The second year automatically voids, but Fitzpatrick will still be responsible for $5 million in dead money on next year's cap. What a lovely aftertaste!
General manager Mike Maccagnan will be in the market for a veteran replacement at the top of the roster, and he'll likely end up with one of the players mentioned in this article. He'll need to do some creative accounting, given that the Jets already have $166 million committed to players for next season. The likes of Ryan Clady, Nick Mangold?and David Harris could be on the chopping block to free up cap room for a player like Romo or Cutler. If Fitzpatrick?wants to continue playing, he will?likely be looking at a salary in the $5 million range to serve as a veteran backup.
Likelihood of Fitzpatrick leaving: 95 percent
Jimmy Garoppolo, Patriots
I wrote about the Garoppolo contract situation last month. If the Patriots really believe that Tom Brady's going to play into his 40s, the logical move would be to trade Garoppolo this offseason before the final year of his rookie contract. The Patriots would almost surely be able to recoup the first-round pick they lost in the Deflategate scandal.
If Garoppolo signs an extension as part of that trade, he could expect to get a deal similar to the contract Osweiler signed in free agency, with a discount owing to the fact that he hasn't played as much and is still a year away from being an unrestricted free agent. A four-year, $64 million deal with $28 million or so in guarantees would hardly be out of the question. Assuming that the Patriots wouldn't want to deal Garoppolo within their own division, the Bears, Browns and 49ers would seem like plausible trade matches.
Likelihood of Garoppolo leaving: 40 percent
Philip Rivers, Chargers
It's hard not to feel sympathetic for Rivers, who is continuing to produce at a high level as all his targets get injured and his teammates blow games. During San Diego's latest crushing loss, Rivers was spotted on the sidelines saying that his team was? "the Bad News Bears, man."?Advanced metrics say the Chargers are playing like an above-average team -- they're 11th in DVOA and 15th in ESPN's Football Power Index -- but they've been terrible late in games and very unlucky.
The 1-4 start has led to suggestions that the Chargers need to rebuild. I'm skeptical given those underlying metrics, but the logical starting point for a rebuild would be trading Rivers, as former Chargers teammate LaDainian Tomlinson suggested recently. Rivers is 34, but his recent play suggests he'd be an upgrade for many teams, especially given the fact that he's throwing to Tyrell Williams and Dontrelle Inman.
It's not about to happen anytime soon. For one, the Chargers can't feasibly afford to deal Rivers this year; San Diego is up against the cap to begin with, and Rivers' cap hit would spike from $16.5 million to $34.5 million with a trade. Next year, the Chargers would only save $2 million by trading Rivers, as his $20 million figure would turn into $18 million in dead money. It would basically be giving up on 2017, and if the Chargers are still bad in 2017, Mike McCoy and Tom Telesco are going to be searching for new jobs. Executives don't make moves that?are all but guaranteed to get them fired.
The other problem is that Rivers might not want to be traded. There were rumors that Rivers might not want to accompany the Chargers to Los Angeles if the team were to move, sparked in part by Tomlinson, who suggested that Rivers wouldn't be the team's starting quarterback in 2015. When Rivers subsequently signed his new extension in August 2015, he extracted a no-trade clause from the team. It's rare for veterans of Rivers' stature to be traded and even rarer for them to insist on no-trade clauses. Does that seem like the sort of guy who wants to start over somewhere else?
There also isn't a logical landing point for the longtime Chargers starter. Reports in 2015 popularly linked Rivers to a return to the Southeast, given that Rivers is from Alabama, but the Titans drafted their franchise quarterback in Mariota and are unlikely to give up on him after two seasons. Rivers played his college ball in North Carolina, but the Panthers already have an MVP under center. At some point, we're just guessing and projecting what we want for Rivers onto him. Until Rivers publicly says that he wants to leave the Chargers, it seems aggressive to suggest that he's on the market.
Likelihood of Rivers leaving: 5 percent
Robert Griffin III, Browns
After fracturing his shoulder during an ugly debut start for the Browns, Griffin's already-limited value as a player moved?closer to nil. Griffin does have a second year on his deal with Cleveland that would cost the Browns an additional $6 million in salary, but the figure isn't guaranteed, and the Browns would only need to eat $1.8 million in dead money if they decided to move on, which seems likely. Griffin's?future as an NFL quarterback seems more tenuous than ever before.
Likelihood of Griffin leaving: 95 percent
Kirk Cousins, Washington
I'm not sure we're any clearer on Cousins' future than we were before this season started. He has been up and down in 2016, with?five interceptions in five starts despite throwing just 22.4 percent of his passes 10 or more yards downfield, the lowest percentage of any regular starter in football. In one game alone, a cursory tape analysis saw Cousins leave three long touchdown passes on the field with bad throws. And yet Cousins has also had stretches in which he has played at a relatively high level. His QBR of 59.6 is a step below last year's 74.5 mark, but it's still good enough for 18th in the league.
Last year, the move that?made sense for all parties was for Washington to franchise Cousins, which it did. This offseason, GM Scot McCloughan will have to make a tougher call. Franchising Cousins would cost Washington $24 million on a one-year deal, which would give him the third-highest cap hit in football behind Romo and Joe Flacco. It's not off the table entirely, but that would be an inefficient use of resources. More likely, McCloughan will want to go ahead with Cousins as his quarterback on a multiyear deal or find a new passer.
To be honest, I'm not sure what the right call will be or how things will go. This time last year, Cousins still looked like a turnover machine. He threw eight interceptions in his first six starts, and then, going against everything he had exhibited throughout his career, Cousins threw just three over the following 10?games. Stay tuned.
Likelihood of Cousins leaving: 35 percent
Blake Bortles, Jaguars
Bortles showed some signs of improvement in 2015, prompting?some to suggest?this offseason that he was on the cusp of superstardom. Others ( including myself) were skeptical, and so far, the skeptics have it. Bortles has looked out of sorts during an ugly start to the season, throwing six picks in four games while posting an opponent-adjusted QBR of 51.5, which is 25th among 30 qualifying passers.
What's more troubling than the numbers, though, is how uncomfortable Bortles?has looked. His mechanics are?erratic -- he'll look entirely erratic one drive?before his footwork returns to form later on, like a switch was flipped. Bortles has?unquestionable raw talent, but whether it's a porous offensive line reinforcing bad habits and/or subpar coaching, he?isn't developing.
The Jaguars aren't giving up on Bortles yet. The fourth year of his rookie deal in 2017 is guaranteed, and they're likely to pick up a low-risk fifth-year option on Bortles this offseason. But we're getting to the point where Bortles simply has to be more consistent and effective. If not, the Jaguars might seriously start thinking about going after a veteran quarterback like Romo or Cutler to compete with Bortles. They obviously have the receivers, and for the first time since Gus Bradley came to town, the defense actually looks good, as Jalen Ramsey?& Co.? are 10th?in DVOA. It's still not clear whether the Jaguars are holding Bortles back, or if it's actually the other way around.
Likelihood of Bortles leaving: 0 percent
Sam Bradford and Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings
Let's finish with one of the more fascinating quarterback situations in football. After years of failing to deliver on the promise he held coming into the NFL as a former first overall pick, Sam Bradford has played like a superstar for the Vikings. Minnesota doesn't ask him to do a ton, and its defense has been incredible, but Bradford has avoided turnovers altogether and formed an immediate bond with Kyle Rudolph, Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. The Vikings are 32nd in rushing DVOA and fifth in passing DVOA.
It may be a fluke -- middling quarterbacks like Foles and? Josh McCown?have put together incredible half-seasons in recent years -- but going forward, if Bradford is even 85 percent of the player he has been so far this year, the Vikings will find it tough to part ways with him this offseason. Bradford is under contract in 2017 for $17 million, $4 million of which becomes guaranteed five days into free agency. That's good value on a one-year deal for an average quarterback. The Vikings also have Teddy Bridgewater under contract for the final year of his rookie deal at $2.2 million. They could choose to pick up Bridgewater's fifth-year option with a hefty raise, but those contracts are guaranteed for injury, and that's a risk the Vikings may not want to take in light of the serious knee injury Bridgewater suffered in training camp.
There are too many moving parts to handicap this one right now. We still have to see how Bridgewater recovers from his injury, because if he's not going to be ready for training camp next summer, the Vikings will definitely want to stick with Bradford. If the former Oklahoma star continues to play like a Pro Bowler, it may not matter; the Vikings may just decide to turn things over to Bradford and trade Bridgewater. And if Bradford regresses back toward his career averages and Bridgewater is healthy, the Vikings will undoubtedly shop Bradford and go back to their starter in 2014 and '15. More than any other situation in the league, we won't know much about the Vikings and their 2017 quarterback status until we get closer to next year.
Likelihood of Bradford or Bridgewater leaving: 25 percent (Bradford), 35 percent (Bridgewater)
