Ranking Super Bowl contenders

ByJOHN PAROLIN
January 16, 2014, 4:36 AM

— -- Clichés have to start somewhere.

Don't turn the ball over. Get seven instead of three in the red zone. Establish the run. Get the defense off the field on third down. All of those maxims, though worn and tired, aren't wrong.

Limiting (and forcing) turnovers is an effective way to win in the postseason. Only one team since 2001 (2007 Giants) has won a Super Bowl with a negative turnover margin.

Maximizing points in the red zone does matter. The past nine Super Bowl-winning teams were in the top half of the league in offensive red zone efficiency.

If these clichés add up to producing the magic formula to win a Super Bowl, which of the four remaining teams checks the most boxes on the ingredient list? Is there one that stands out among the rest?

How are these determined?

The rankings factor in red-zone efficiency, turnovers, takeaways, third-down conversion percentage, Total QBR and rushing success rate for each team's offense and defense.

Additionally, thanks to Dean Oliver's work on pass-protection metrics, we can look at two more categories for each team: How well their four-man pass rush can control the line of scrimmage and how effectively their offensive line controls the line when pass blocking.

Six categories for both the offense and the defense, plus special teams expected points added (EPA) and penalties per game make 14 categories total.