Rating every head coach's job security

— -- In the wake of the surprise firing of Chip Kelly in Philadelphia, we asked our NFL Nation reporters to analyze the job security of the 31 other NFL head coaches, with each getting a rating of 1 to 10 (1 means the coach's seat is ice cold; 10 means it's scorching hot). Here are the coaches, starting with the ones in the most trouble.

Indianapolis Colts

Chuck Pagano: 10

This is an easy one. Pagano, whose contract expires at the end of the season, turned down a one-year extension from the team during the offseason. The Colts are on the brink of missing the playoffs for the first time in four years with him as coach. His relationship with general manager Ryan Grigson has deteriorated as the season progressed. And perhaps most telling, Pagano talks like a coach who knows his time is running out with the organization. -- Mike Wells

Miami Dolphins

Dan Campbell: 10

The Dolphins' interim head coach had long odds to begin with when he was promoted in Week 5. He took over a bad team in disarray, and besides a brief two-game winning streak in October, poor play continued throughout the rest of the season. Campbell is 4-7 since taking over, which simply isn't good enough. The Dolphins will be searching for a new head coach in January. -- James Walker

Tennessee Titans

Mike Mularkey: 10

The interim coach has produced some good change, but the team is 2-6 under his direction and has fizzled over the past three weeks. Given a choice between him and those in the available coaching world, the Titans have to go shopping. -- Paul Kuharsky

Cleveland Browns

Mike Pettine: 9

After starting his tenure 7-4, Pettine and the Browns have lost 17 of their past 20 games. That's not a good trend, especially with an owner who has shown he isn't afraid to be impatient. -- Pat McManamon

Detroit Lions

Jim Caldwell: 9

Caldwell really has little to no control over what will happen to him anymore. Team president Rod Wood has said the Lions' new general manager will decide Caldwell's future in Detroit. If the Lions hire someone who knows Caldwell -- Sheldon White or Chris Polian, for example -- he has a decent shot. If they bring in someone who has no familiarity with Caldwell, it could be a much tougher sell. That he will be the first Lions coach in the Super Bowl era to have a record of over .500 after two full seasons might bolster his case with his new boss, though, and is the only reason he isn't at a 10 here. -- Michael Rothstein

San Diego Chargers

Mike McCoy: 9

The Chargers have played teams tough, but they have lost nine of their past 11 games. Heavy underdogs in Denver this Sunday, San Diego will likely finish the season at 4-12. Yes, injuries have been an issue, but it's unacceptable to finish this badly when you have a healthy franchise quarterback like Philip Rivers. And with the Chargers eyeing a move to Los Angeles, the organization could consider a more dynamic presence as the team's head coach." -- Eric D. Williams

New York Giants

Tom Coughlin: 8

As the past few weeks and days have unfolded, it has started to seem as though Coughlin had to make the playoffs in order to continue as the Giants' head coach. He's not a sure thing to be gone yet, since he carries serious weight as a two-time Super Bowl champion and is well liked and respected by players and owners. But the vibe around the Giants has shifted, and they seem likely to be in the market for a new head coach for the first time in 12 years. -- Dan Graziano

Dallas Cowboys

Jason Garrett: 5

In January 2015, Jason Garrett signed a five-year, $30 million contract. After one poor season, Jerry Jones is not about to walk away from Garrett. But the coach's relative job security is not just because of the financial commitment. Garrett's plan was starting to come around until Tony Romo was hurt in Week 2. Garrett has not been able to adapt to Romo's absence, but he will get the chance to turn it around in 2016. Jones has long said he wants Garrett to be his Tom Landry. He will be entering his sixth season as the full-time coach in 2016, and the pressure to perform will be on. -- Todd Archer

San Francisco 49ers

Jim Tomsula: 5

This comes with a caveat, because Tomsula should be on the hot seat for overseeing a regressing team that is tied for the second-worst record in the NFL. But is he actually on the hot seat? Not necessarily. Not when CEO Jed York and GM Trent Baalke went all in on Tomsula last January, so much so that firing Tomsula would be akin to York and Baalke admitting they made a major mistake. And they're not about to do that, right? Indeed, many observers are of the mind that Baalke's seat should be warmer than anything occupied by Tomsula, who inherited a decimated roster. -- Paul Gutierrez

Buffalo Bills

Rex Ryan: 4

Ryan is almost certain to keep his job despite a disappointing first season. The Bills -- who are on their sixth head coach since the last time they made the playoffs -- aren't looking to cause additional shakeups this offseason, and Ryan still has four years and over $20 million remaining on his contract with the team. However, Ryan's seat is heating up in a long-term sense because of his failure this season to maintain one of the NFL's best defenses from 2014. He'll enter next season very likely needing to improve his performance to keep his job for 2017. -- Mike Rodak

New Orleans Saints

Sean Payton: 3

Payton won't get fired. But there has been speculation buzzing all year that other teams might come calling next week to see if he might be available via trade. It's not an outrageous idea, since the Saints are about to wrap up their first back-to-back losing seasons in the 10-year era under Payton. It might take the perfect storm to pry him away (both the right team and the right level of draft-pick compensation). There have been no signs that Payton or the Saints are eager to part ways. The front office still believes in him as the coach to guide their rebuilding process. Payton has been energized by the Saints' youth movement. And he has a great level of power and authority that will be hard to match elsewhere. -- Mike Triplett

St. Louis Rams

Jeff Fisher: 3

There was never much of a chance that Fisher would be out of a job this year, since owner Stan Kroenke is more focused on moving his team to Los Angeles and doesn't seem the type to pay a coach nearly $7 million to sit at home. Not many coaches get a fifth year after not posting a winning record in their first four, but the Rams' three-game winning streak after a five-game losing skid almost guarantees Fisher will be back so long as he wants to be. -- Nick Wagoner

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Lovie Smith: 3

Smith has led his team to three times as many wins as he did a year ago, all with three rookies carrying the load offensively. The three-game losing streak at the end is the only reason this number isn't a 1, but with some moves on defense, this team could be a playoff contender next season. -- Rick Brown

Baltimore Ravens

John Harbaugh: 2

This will mark the second time in three seasons that the Ravens have failed to make the playoffs, but that's more of a reflection of personnel decisions than coaching. Harbaugh still has plenty of cache after leading Baltimore to the playoffs in his first six seasons and winning a Super Bowl in 2012. And despite a 5-10 record, the injury-depleted Ravens continue to play hard. It also helps that Harbaugh has beaten the chief rival Steelers in five of the past six meetings. Harbaugh isn't going anywhere. -- Jamison Hensley

Cincinnati Bengals

Marvin Lewis: 2

The Bengals' head man might have had a slightly warmer seat (emphasis on "slightly") after last year's wild-card round loss, but regardless what happens to his team in the playoffs this year, he isn't going anywhere. Team president Mike Brown very much values what Lewis has provided the organization in his 13 seasons: seven playoff teams, including five straight. In the event that Brown actually was considering letting the coach go, he should remember that the team started the season 8-0 with its full complement of weapons -- and that all four of the Bengals' losses have come against playoff teams. -- Coley Harvey

Green Bay Packers

Mike McCarthy: 2

McCarthy and quarterback Aaron Rodgers don't exactly seem to be the same page, but the relationship doesn't appear to be irreparable. Rodgers was happy when McCarthy handed off play-calling duties to the quarterback's longtime mentor Tom Clements, so it's a good bet he was less than pleased when McCarthy took back the job earlier this month. Still, it seems unlikely that general manager Ted Thompson would view it as a long-term problem in their relationship. Seven straight years in the playoffs gets coaches raises, so Rodgers and McCarthy are both here to stay for the long haul, with the quarterback under contract through 2019 and the coach through 2018. -- Rob Demovsky

Pittsburgh Steelers

Mike Tomlin: 2

Tomlin isn't going anywhere. He signed a contract extension in the offseason, making him one of the league's highest-paid coaches. He has never had a losing season. He still carries the cachet of two Super Bowl appearances and one championship. The only reason Tomlin is not a 1 here is because the Steelers are in danger of missing the playoffs for the third time in four years. If left out, that would be five years without a playoff win. Tomlin is 1-5 in his last six meetings with Baltimore. But overall, things are very stable. It's hard to argue with a .636 career winning percentage. -- Jeremy Fowler

Arizona Cardinals

Bruce Arians: 1

Arians might be the hottest head coach in the NFL at the moment, having led the Cardinals to a franchise-record 13 wins (and counting) with the best offense -- and one of the best defenses -- in the league. -- Josh Weinfuss

Atlanta Falcons

Dan Quinn: 1

Quinn is just one year into his five-year contract. Although the Falcons had a six-game losing streak after a 6-1 start, Quinn got his players to play inspired football in a 20-13 upset of the then-undefeated Panthers. Falcons owner Arthur Blank told ESPN.com this about Quinn following an earlier 38-0 loss at Carolina: "I've got complete confidence in Dan. He's going to be a great head coach for us for many years." -- Vaughn McClure

Carolina Panthers

Ron Rivera: 1

At 1-3 four games into the 2013 season, Rivera looked like a coach headed for the unemployment line. After three straight NFC South titles, including an NFL-best 14-1 record this year, Rivera is in line for his second NFL Coach of the Year Award in three seasons after winning in 2013. His chances of being fired are zilch. If anything, he should get another extension after this season. -- David Newton

Chicago Bears

John Fox: 1

There's absolutely no way Fox will be let go after one year, especially since he was handed virtually complete control of the organization. Fox has more power than any coach in team history since founder George Halas. That's the price the Bears had to pay for only reaching the playoffs four times in 20 years. Fox is certainly an upgrade over Marc Trestman. The Bears have been more competitive this year, and the culture inside the building is better under Fox. Unless he bolts town, the 60-year-old Fox will be the Bears' head coach for the foreseeable future. -- Jeff Dickerson

Denver Broncos

Gary Kubiak: 1

I would even say sub-1, as Kubiak was John Elway's hand-picked choice to be the team's head coach and bring a more "kicking and screaming'' mentality to the team. Kubiak -- a former Broncos assistant coach, who also was Elway's road roommate during their playing days in Denver -- has the Broncos at 11-4 and still in the hunt for home-field advantage in the AFC despite the uncertainty the team has had at quarterback all season long with Peyton Manning's injury. -- Jeff Legwold

Houston Texans

Bill O'Brien: 1

Texans owner Bob McNair is not one to make hasty decisions, but even if he were, O'Brien is completely safe. The turnaround the Texans have made since their 2-5 start has impressed McNair. That O'Brien has had his team in playoff contention twice without much continuity at the quarterback position has been impressive. -- Tania Ganguli

Jacksonville Jaguars

Gus Bradley: 1

Owner Shad Khan released a statement on Tuesday saying that Bradley would be back in 2016, despite a 12-35 record in his first three seasons. The Jaguars have made strides on offense since Bradley took over -- quarterback Blake Bortles surpassed 4,000 yards and has 35 TD passes this season, while  Allen Robinson has blossomed into one of the league's best young receivers. They still have work to do on defense. The Jaguars will concentrate on fixing that side of the ball this offseason. The expectations for 2016 are pretty high and Bradley may need a winning record to earn an extension. -- Mike DiRocco

Kansas City Chiefs

Andy Reid: 1

Reid guided the Chiefs from their 1-5 start to a 10-game winning streak and a spot in the playoffs. He's far closer to NFL Coach of the Year material than a candidate to be fired. -- Adam Teicher

Minnesota Vikings

Mike Zimmer: 1

The Vikings couldn't be happier with the job Zimmer has done in two years, taking the team's defense from the bottom of the league to the top 10 and leading the Vikings to the playoffs in 2015. He was a key force in bringing back Adrian Peterson, and he has received laudatory comments from ownership. He's not going anywhere. -- Ben Goessling

New England Patriots

Bill Belichick: 1

This rating is also reflective of where many rank Belichick among his head coaching peers. At this point, he can call his own shots on which year he decides will be his last. -- Mike Reiss

New York Jets

Todd Bowles: 1

Bowles, a first-year coach who inherited a 4-12 team, has the 10-5 Jets one win from a wild-card berth. Obviously, he's staying put. He is everything they hoped for -- an even-keeled disciplinarian who ended the "circus" perception fostered by the previous regime -- Rich Cimini

Oakland Raiders

Jack Del Rio: 1

Strange as it might sound for Oakland, where the head coach is almost always on the hot seat, there is absolutely no chance Del Rio is in trouble. He has guided the Raiders to a 7-8 record in Year 1, and their arrow is pointing up. -- Bill Williamson

Seattle Seahawks

Pete Carroll: 1

He has the Seahawks back in the playoffs for the fifth time in six years, and they're aiming for their third straight Super Bowl appearance. The core is in place for this team to be a contender going forward, and the 64-year-old Carroll has shown no signs of slowing down. There aren't many coaches in the NFL with more job security than him. -- Sheil Kapadia

Washington Redskins

Jay Gruden: 1

Even when the Redskins were stumbling about in the middle of the season, Gruden was not in trouble. Now, after posting three straight victories to win the NFC East on Saturday in Philadelphia, there's no way anything will or should happen to Gruden. The Redskins went from four wins in his first season to eight in his second. -- John Keim