Elections Today
- Pennsylvania
Recent Projections
| State | Candidate | Delegates |
|---|---|---|
 Donald Trump | ||
Pennsylvania |  Joe Biden |
Seattle's Super Bowl window remains wide-open
— -- The Seattle Seahawks delivered a consistent message after their season-ending defeat at Carolina in the NFC divisional playoffs Sunday.
"We will be back," quarterback Russell Wilson said.
"We can be special for a long time," cornerback Richard Sherman said.
Are they right, or is the Seahawks' Super Bowl window closing? Marshawn Lynch, who once gave Seattle's offense its physical edge, is probably on his way out. Defensive enforcer Kam Chancellor appears diminished. The salary-cap charge for Wilson's contract will soon balloon to $18.5 million, limiting the flexibility to supplement a roster that is no longer one of the NFL's youngest.
Keeping open championship windows is never easy, but several factors put the Seahawks in position to contend for the next couple Super Bowls -- even as a team in transition.
Core will remain together
Lynch, though under contract, has approached the tipping point where anticipated production no longer outweighs cost. It's difficult to envision the team bringing him back for another year. Thomas Rawls is ready to step in for him. Seattle figures to draft at the position as well.
Coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider might need to decide whether Chancellor can regain his previous form, but most of the impending personnel decisions lack any sense of drama. That's because the Seahawks have already re-signed the players most critical to keeping their championship window open over the next couple seasons. Wilson, Rawls, Doug Baldwin, Jimmy Graham, Tyler Lockett, Luke Willson, Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, Frank Clark, Jordan Hill, K.J. Wright, Bobby Wagner, Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman and Chancellor all have deals.
The Seahawks still haven't gotten it consistently right on the offensive line -- that's an area they'll need to address. But even with the line issues, the offense produced. Shifting to a quicker-hitting pass game was key. Despite shuffling at running back, Seattle ranked third in rushing yards for the season, including fifth in yards gained by running backs. The Seahwaks' backs averaged 4.4 yards per carry. Any upgrades on the O-line could mean big things for the offense in 2016.
Prime talent, emerging youth
The Seahawks in recent seasons fielded one of the five or 10 youngest rosters in the league. Their average age has crept toward the average, an indication Seattle will need to restock through the draft to supply its longer-term future. In the meantime, this is a team whose key players are in their prime years, starting with Wilson (more on him later).
The 29-year-old Lynch and impending free agents Bruce Irvin and Russell Okung, both 28, might not be back. The 20 other Seahawks with the highest grades in Pro Football Focus charting for 2015 average 26.2 years old. Wilson, Baldwin, Thomas, Wright, Sherman and Wagner are part of that productive group. Avril, 29, and Bennett, 30, are the oldest of the bunch. Both ranked among PFF's top 10 edge defenders in the league this season.
Three others on that list of 20 highest-graded Seahawks are just getting started and poised to make greater impacts next season (ages in parentheses):
Rawls (22): The second-year running back surprisingly provided an upgrade in production from Lynch before suffering a season-ending ankle injury. He had a 209-yard game and a 169-yard game (Lynch's career high is 157). Rawls looks like a legitimate starter.
Clark (22): The rookie pass-rusher averaged about 20 snaps per game and showed flashes of brilliance, noticeably against Minnesota during the regular season. His talent was never in question. Maturing into a more consistent player is a realistic goal.
Lockett (23): Lockett earned Pro Bowl honors as a return specialist and become a force at wide receiver late in the season and into the postseason. He had six touchdown receptions over his final nine games.
Wilson doesn't need Lynch, but ...
Before this season, quite a few NFL coaches and personnel evaluators thought Wilson would struggle once forced to play without Lynch, particularly if the Seattle defense also regressed. The thinking was that opposing defenses focused on Lynch, making life much easier for Wilson, especially in a low-volume pass offense. That thinking will have to change some.
Wilson showed he could flourish without Lynch and without Graham. Wilson tossed 20 touchdown passes with only two interceptions during the regular season when both Lynch and Graham were off the field. His passer rating (126.8) and Total QBR (90.8) were sky-high without them. That had to be a revelation for Wilson's skeptics. Wilson did not implode minus Lynch. His production improved.
Seattle again led the league in points allowed, but the defense was less consistent. It has slipped from first (2013) to third (2014) to seventh (2015) in expected points added (EPA). What happens if that defensive ranking keeps sliding over the next year or two? Wilson will need to do more -- something a veteran coach emphasized after Seattle won the Super Bowl two years ago.
"When they pay [Wilson] and that defense goes to the middle of the pack and he starts throwing for 250-plus yards a game, then he is there," this coach said at the time.
Wilson averaged 251 yards passing per game this past season, but the Seahawks had a hard time winning higher-scoring games. They were 10-0 (counting playoffs) when opponents scored fewer than 14 points. They were 1-7 in their remaining eight games, with opponents scoring at least 23 points in all of them. Wilson ranked eighth in passer rating (96.5) and 12th in QBR (58.3) in games when opponents scored 23-plus points. Those weren't bad numbers, but neither were they good enough for the Seahawks to win those higher-scoring games with any consistency.
Improving the offensive line and replenishing receiving options could close the gap.
In the big picture, I'm not sure what more Wilson could have done under the circumstances to prove he could be the driving force behind a productive offense. He trailed only Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees in QBR this season. He led the league in passer rating. He did it despite losing some of the most talented skill players around him. This season provided the best evidence yet Wilson could pick up the slack when the roster suffered elsewhere.
When the window closes
Sherman's proclamation Sunday that Seattle could be "special for a long time" begged a question: How long is a long time? This Seahawks team is already three or four years into its life cycle. There's enough talent in its prime and under contract to keep open this Super Bowl window for a couple more seasons. Beyond that, too many variables come into play -- not just for Seattle, but for every team.
The 2015 Seahawks seemed to spend much of the season shaking off the psychological fallout from their shocking Super Bowl demise against New England. They dug their way out from a 2-4 start to win nine of their final 12. Now, having failed to reach a third consecutive Super Bowl, they get a chance to reset after playing a league-high 74 games since the 2012 season began.
Any Super Bowl hangover is behind them. Their uncomfortable alliance with Lynch could be nearing its end. Carroll and Schneider are entering contract years, but all signs point to them continuing in their roles. In the near term, Seattle will need to retool its offensive line, restock at defensive tackle and supplement elsewhere. Those are minor tasks compared to the past few seasons' heavy lifting.
Related Stories
ABC News Live