Baseball Predictions: Thaaaa Yankees Win!

We are peering through the haze, peering ahead to October.

We see confetti floating. We see champagne spouting. We see another of baseball's interminable World Series droughts fading into the past tense.

The Cubs, you ask? The Indians? The Giants?

Nope. Sorry. We can see it now. From the same sport that wiped out 86 years of unbearable Red Sox doom and then obliterated 88 years of unceasing White Sox gloom, perhaps the most painful drought of them all is about to cease. Finally.

We are talking about the anguish, the suffering of ...

The New York Yankees ... a team that hasn't won the World Series in nearly five-and-a-half long years.

Well, they're back, friends. This is their year.

Some teams dream about winning the World Series. The Yankees are required to win the World Series. Every stinking year. Or else.

So you don't think five-and-a-half trophyless years for the Yankees are the equivalent of 86 years of droughts and curses in a place like New England? Guess again.

"Oh, yeah, it may be," Derek Jeter laughs. "I don't know about the other side, obviously. But here, it definitely seems like it's been a long time."

For five consecutive Octobers they've had to watch some other team celebrate. And almost all those teams got to celebrate, by the way, because, somewhere along the line, they'd vanquished the mighty Yankees.

That is not the Yankees' idea of fun. It is more like the Yankees' idea of torture.

Asked if he even watches the World Series when his team isn't in it, Jeter gets a look on his mug that is the kind of look the rest of us might get if we were asked if we'd like to pass a kidney stone the size of a bowling ball.

"Noooo," Jeter says. "I ain't watching that. No interest. I get sick to my stomach watching that stuff.

"I'm not a good loser," Jeter reminds us, as if anybody suspected otherwise.

And his boss, his owner -- that Steinbrenner character -- he's an even worse loser. Which is why, since the last time the Yankees won a World Series (way, way back in the year 2000), Steinbrenner's team has:

Signed 12 major free agents (i.e., players making more than $5 million a year): Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui (twice), Gary Sheffield, Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, Kyle Farnsworth, Jose Contreras, Sterling Hitchcock, Robin Ventura and Steve Karsay. Total price tag: more than half a billion dollars ($529.45 million).

Traded for Randy Johnson, Alex Rodriguez, Kevin Brown, Raul Mondesi and David Justice -- all of whom made slightly more than, say, Bubba Crosby.

Lost postseason series five times to teams -- the Diamondbacks, Angels, Marlins, Red Sox and Angels again -- that spent a combined 362.7 million fewer payroll dollars than the Yankees did.

Cashman in Control

After every one of those lost series, Steinbrenner has stewed, fumed and done an excellent job of pulling out his checkbook.

But if you haven't paid attention lately, maybe you haven't noticed some very significant Yankees events -- events that indicate a shifting of Yankees philosophies.

Two winters ago, they actually passed on a chance to sign Carlos Beltran, because they didn't see tying up another $100 million (plus a potential $40 million more in luxury tax) as a real brilliant idea.

And this past winter, while the big headlines revolved around the signings of Damon and Farnsworth, the most important Yankees news really had nothing to do with players -- whether they were new, old or engraved on a monument in left field.

No, the biggest story was Steinbrenner's decision to make peace with manager Joe Torre and to give GM Brian Cashman not just a new contract but more control over the direction of the operation.

There is monstrous significance to those developments for many reasons. But one of them is that Cashman is trying hard to steer the Yankees away from the mind-set that clubs should be put together like a giant fantasy team.

So Cashman, realist that he is, is not a man who is particularly thrilled with those suggestions that five straight parade-free years in the Bronx is a crime that ought to result in everyone responsible being deported to Chechnya.

"I get a little insulted when people say, 'It's been five years,'" Cashman says. "You know, it's not easy to win a World Series. It's impossible [to win it every year]. The odds of that aren't good.

"I hear people talk about our payroll and that's why we should win. Well, if that was true, then we would have had 100 world championships already, because we've probably led in payroll for 100 straight years. So that's why I get insulted by that talk, because we respect the game way too much to have that attitude."

There aren't many people left anymore, you realize, who were part of all four recent Yankees title teams, oh those many years ago (1996, '98, '99 and 2000).

The GM was there in '96 (although as an assistant GM). The manager hasn't changed. But Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada and Bernie Williams are the only players who have been around for the last decade. And now, with the exit of pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre, even the coaching staff has been 100 percent turned over.

So this year's coaches include four former big league managers (Larry Bowa, Tony Pena, Lee Mazzilli, Joe Kerrigan), plus two living Yankees legends (Don Mattingly and Ron Guidry). That staff has spent this spring refocusing this group's attention on the little things (execution, base running, preparation, etc.). What a concept.

"Maybe we took a little of that stuff for granted here -- but not this spring," Cashman says.

"To win, you have to be able to do the little things," Jeter says. "One thing that bothers me a lot about baseball and how it's gone today is ... you turn on the TV every night to watch the highlights, and all you get is home runs. But when you get to the postseason, there are not too many home run hitting contests."

Of course, the 1996-2000 Yankees didn't just practice the little things. They worshiped the little things. It remains to be seen how much this star-studded roster can ever resemble that one. But we still didn't see one team this spring any better than these Yankees. Not one.

So why do we think they'll win it all? Here's why:

1. More sanity

Last year this time, the Bronx Zoo was in full don't-feed-the-animals frenzy. The Bombers were coming off their most embarrassing postseason el foldo in history. Jason Giambi was trying to dodge getting his contract voided. It was Johnson's first spring as a Yankee. Matsui's contract negotiations weren't going well, etc., etc. But even worse, Cashman was in the final year of his contract and dropping hints that he wouldn't mind bolting for saner pastures. And Torre and Steinbrenner weren't even on speaking terms.

Now Cashman's deal is done through 2008. Steinbrenner was seen several times this spring literally plopping himself on the couch in Torre's office to banter with the manager. And the clubhouse vibe was amazingly serene, upbeat and downright jovial. So for a month and a half, these Yankees actually seemed normal. Who knew?

"It seems like everyone in here gets along great," Damon says. "You never heard that before."

2. Everybody loves Damon

How many ways will the Yankees feel the impact of Damon? Let's count them. On offense? Yeah, good place to start. Damon has scored 100 runs eight years in a row. No other leadoff hitter in the last seven decades can make that claim.

On defense? You bet. Damon may not be Ichiro out there when it comes time to throw the ball, but he can sure catch it. He reached so many more balls in the outfield last year than Bernie Williams that, over 150 games, Damon would have turned 101 more fly balls into outs than his beloved predecessor, Bernie. That's a lot of doubles.

In the standings? No doubt. You can't just add Damon to the Yankees. You have to subtract him from the Red Sox. Coco Crisp is a terrific player. But he isn't anywhere near as patient, as savvy or as charismatic as the guy he's replacing.

In the clubhouse? Sure looks that way. We we're as dubious as everyone else that Damon's fun-loving attitude would fit into the Yankees' more serious, more structured way of life. But so far, so good.

"I know we're accused of being corporate," Cashman says. "But we have a lot of guys who have fun. I think they go corporate in front of the press, only because there are more people watching. But Joe Torre runs a pretty loose ship. He lets guys be themselves. So we're not looking for guys to come here and change."

3. The deep blue pitching staff

If everybody stays healthy ...

But that'll happen when your two best starting pitchers -- Johnson and Mussina -- will be a combined 80 years old by the end of the season. And when your No. 3 starter, Chien-Ming Wang, was told he needed shoulder surgery last July (but never had it). And when your fourth and fifth starters -- Pavano and Wright -- spent more than 200 days on the disabled list last summer.

It's hard to find anyone who doesn't believe that the pitching staff is this team's biggest potential black hole. But here's why this year isn't going to be a rerun of last year -- when the Yankees had to rip through 14 starting pitchers and 28 pitchers altogether. This year, they've backed themselves up with depth they didn't have last season.

There should be no Darrell May or Tim Redding one-and-done debacles this season. Beside the five starters we mentioned above, this team also has last year's two miracle saviors, Shawn Chacon and Aaron Small. Beyond them, Scott Proctor this spring looked like a guy who could step in and start and not embarrass anybody. And waiting in Triple-A is rising prospect Matt DeSalvo, who opened eyes with his 1.13 spring ERA.

That's nine potential starters. "And as you know," Cashman chuckles, "we'll need them all to do what we want to do."

The bullpen has also been retooled, with Farnsworth, Mike Myers, Ron Villone and Octavio Dotel moving in to build a new bridge to the great Rivera, who is obviously really slipping. He faced 27 hitters this spring -- and gave up one hit.

But there is one more major difference between this year's staff and last year's: The 6-foot-10 ace looked like an ace all spring. Johnson got his mechanics locked in early, bonded with new pitching coach Guidry, and says: "I feel really good."

4. Bombs away

Is there a better lineup in baseball than this one? We can't find one. True, there's only one addition: Damon. But here's the difference he can make: The Yankees finished just 14 shy of 900 runs last year, even though they finished last in the league in on-base percentage and slugging percentage by their center fielders.

So guess which team's center fielders finished first in the league in batting average and slugging (and second in OBP)? That, of course, would be the Red Sox, whose primary center fielder was a fellow named Damon.

5. They're the Yankees

As a friend of ours told us last week, you can never go wrong picking the team with the most talent to win the World Series. Let alone the team with the most money.

And that's the Yankees. The Yankees' payroll is down $10 to $13 million, depending on how you calculate it. But the team still writes the biggest checks around. It still starts an all-star at every position except second base. And even though its pitching staff may not be a win-the-World Series kind of staff, it's certainly a make-the-playoffs kind of staff.

So even in an American League with so many good teams that Cashman calls it "a nightmare," the Yankees are the safest bet to reach the playoffs. And after that, says Jeter, "you don't have to be the best team. You just have to be the hottest team."

Only nine players on this roster, though, have ever won a World Series. And the men who won elsewhere often wonder what it would be like to win in New York.

Take Randy Johnson. The team he won the World Series with -- the 2001 Diamondbacks -- played in a city that had never won any title in any pro sport. So winning here, he says, can't possibly be as exhilarating as winning was there.

"When something is actually expected of you," the Unit says, "it's not quite as exciting."

But Damon -- whose title in Boston was literally a life-altering experience for millions -- isn't conceding that.

"I think it would be just as fun," Damon says. "It all depends on the players you have. If winning the World Series is not a big deal, that wouldn't be right. And if you look around this clubhouse, there are a number of guys in here who have never won. So to me, it's not an issue. You've got to enjoy every single opportunity, because they don't happen that often -- not even here."

Damon recalls well how the Red Sox "became America's Team" when it won. And he's even predicting the same thing could happen if these Yankees win, now that they're actually (gulp) "slight underdogs."

OK, so they're not underdogs in the way, say, George Mason is an underdog. But it has been five and a half years. And the White Sox, A's and Indians have seemed like trendier picks this spring. And there sure has been lots of Red Sox and Blue Jays talk.

But come on. Could the Yankees actually make themselves, um, lovable? Hey, why not? If Donald Trump could pull it off, why couldn't this team?

"This is the greatest franchise on this planet," Damon says. "Everyone knows what the New York Yankees are. You either love 'em or you hate 'em. And it's my turn to love 'em."

So now can he charm about 75 million other Americans into loving 'em right along with him? Get back to us in seven months. Just as soon as the 2006 Yankees finish their 27th parade down the Canyon of Heroes.

Jayson Stark is a senior writer for