Super Bowl LI betting profile: New England Patriots
— -- In advance of the biggest gambling event of the year, ESPN Chalk will have multiple pieces dedicated to helping bettors place smarter wagers on Super Bowl LI.
To begin the week, we break down the New England Patriots' 2016 season from a gambling perspective, including a look at their future-book odds, over/under season win total and a game-by-game breakdown. This is basically everything you should know if you're considering backing the Patriots. (We'll do the same with the Atlanta Falcons on Tuesday.)
Preseason odds
New England's Super Bowl LI future-book odds (plus odds to win AFC East and AFC Championship)
On Monday, Jan. 11, 2016, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted its Super Bowl LI futures, and the Patriots were listed as 8-1 tri-favorites with the Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers. They were bet to 6-1 favoritism until April 25, when Tom Brady's four-game suspension was reinstated and the Westgate raised them back to 8-1 along with the Seahawks. By the start of the season, bettors had again made the Patriots the 6-1 favorite despite Brady being slated to miss the first four games.
Similarly, the Patriots opened as the 7-2 co-favorites with the Steelers to win the AFC and lost some support with the Brady suspension. However, by the time the season started, they were the solid 11-4 favorites (just under 3-1) to win the AFC.
The AFC East odds weren't posted until after Brady's suspension was reinstated, so the Westgate opened them as the overwhelming 4-9 faves to win the AFC East on May 1, and that was the line in the week leading up to the start of the season.
Season win total: 10.5 (over -120)
The Patriots opened with an over/under of 10.5 wins with -110 on the over and -110 on the under. Some books dropped to 10 wins after the April 25 announcement that Brady would miss the first four games of the season, but by the time the regular season started in September, the over had been bet all the way back up to 10.5 with -120 on the over. The Patriots easily went over their total in Week 14, when they improved to 11-2 on the way to an NFL-best 14-2 record in the regular season.
Regular season
Record: 14-2 (tied for No. 1 in NFL with Dallas; No. 1 in AFC)
ATS record: 13-3 ATS (No. 1 in NFL), net profit of 9.7 units
Over/unders: 10-6 with the under (tied for No. 2 in NFL with unders, behind only the New York Giants at 12-4), profit of 3.4 units with unders
New England was very good to its backers during the regular season, posting a league-best 13-3 ATS record. They won and covered their first three games of the season without Brady before losing 16-0 to the Buffalo Bills in Week 4 as 3.5-point home favorites. They then won and covered the first four games with Brady in the lineup to stand at 7-1 SU/ATS before heading into their Week 9 bye. They lost 31-24 to the Seahawks in Week 10 as 7.5-point home favorites but then won their last seven games of the regular season with the only other non-cover being their 22-17 victory at the New York Jets in Week 12 as 9.5-point road favorites. The 13-3 ATS record is remarkable, considering they had to cover such big spreads; four times they were double-digit favorites and another four times favored by 7.5 to 9.5 points. The Patriots were 3-1 with the under while Brady was suspended, but even though they weren't as much of an under team with Brady running the offense, they were 7-5 with the under in games he played.
Postseason
Record: 2-0 (AFC champions)
ATS record: 2-0 ATS, 2 units of profit
Over/unders: 2-0 with the over, 2 units of profit
Oddsmakers continued to make bettors pay a premium to back the Patriots in the AFC playoffs, but they still covered as 17-point home favorites in their 34-16 divisional playoff win over the Houston Texans and then as 5.5-point home favorites over the Steelers in the AFC Championship Game. Both of New England's playoff games went over the total, so that makes over/unders 7-7 in games played with Brady as the starting quarterback this season.
Biggest win for bettors: New England -5.5 over Buffalo in Week 8
The public won on the Patriots so often and covered so much that it's hard to come up with their best cover, but I'll opt for their Week 8 win at Buffalo. The Patriots had lost to the Bills 16-0 in Week 4 with third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett starting the last game of Brady's suspension. This was a clear revenge spot for the Patriots, and they went off as 5.5-point road favorites and rolled to a 41-25 victory, also cashing a popular fave/over parlay.
Worst loss for bettors: New England -7.5 vs. Seattle in Week 10 (and also in teasers)
The Patriots were rolling along at 7-1, and bettors were reaping the rewards at 7-1 ATS. New England was also coming out of its bye when hosting the Seahawks in Week 10. Even though Seattle was considered one of the best teams in the NFC, the Patriots went off as 7.5-point home favorites only to lose 31-24. Not only did ATS bettors lose, but since the Patriots lost outright, all teasers involving the Patriots bit the dust. The Patriots haven't lost since this setback (8-1 ATS) and have covered on teasers in every game since.
Splits and trends
New England as favorite
SU record: 14-2
ATS record: 13-3 for a net profit of 9.7 units
Over/under (as faves): 8-8
New England is a 3-point favorite over Atlanta in Super Bowl LI. There were only two games in which the Patriots didn't go off as favorites: Week 1 at Arizona and in the Week 3 Thursday night game against Houston, when it went off at pick-em. The Patriots were 2-0 SU and ATS in those games, but we don't get them as underdogs or at pick-em in this game. Regardless, the Patriots were a very impressive 14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS as favorites.
New England away from home
Home record: 8-2 SU, 8-2 ATS (including playoffs)
Away record: 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS
Over/under (in away games): 6-2 with the under
Most people will think this is irrelevant, since the Super Bowl is played at a neutral site, but a lot of handicappers (this is also true during March Madness) like to look at a team's road record to see how that team fares away from its home surroundings (since both teams do that at a neutral site). What a lot of people forget is that New England suffered both of its losses at home, so it was actually a more impressive 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS on the road during the regular season. In addition, unders were 6-2 in the Patriots' road games, including 5-2 since Brady returned to the starting lineup.
Trends that favor New England
When the No. 1-scoring defense (New England allowed 15.6 points per game) and the No. 1-scoring offense (Atlanta scored 33.8 points per game) have met in the Super Bowl, the top defense has prevailed 5 of 6 times.
When a team scores 40 or more points in a playoff game -- as the Falcons did in their 44-21 victory over the Packers as 6-point home favorites -- those teams are 11-18 SU and 4-24-1 ATS in their next game, according to Marc Lawrence of playbook.com.
The Patriots have not lost to the Falcons during Tom Brady's 17-year career. Of course, since the two are in different conferences, they meet only once every four years, so Brady is just 4-0 against the Falcons.
Note: Atlanta's Matt Ryan has been around for only the past two losses. This is coach Dan Quinn's first game against New England as a head coach, though he was the defensive coordinator at Seattle in the Seahawks' loss to the Patriots in Super Bowl XLIX.
Game-by-game breakdown
For those who want a closer look at all of the Patriots' games from this season, these are our betting recaps from each week:
Week 1 (easy cover): New England ( 9) in 23-21 win at Arizona
The Patriots jumped out to a 10-0 lead, and the Cardinals never approached being up by the point spread (their biggest lead was 21-20). The obvious takeaway from this game is that the Patriots do whatever it takes to win. Jimmy Garoppolo made all the plays he was supposed to in place of Tom Brady; the runners and receivers always seems to get one more yard than they needed to move the chain; the defense stood up to the Cardinals' potent offense. I wouldn't discount the Cards for losing to a better team (and they nearly won, of course, as the normally reliable Chandler Catanzaro missed a potential 47-yard, game-winning field goal.
Week 2 (easy cover): New England (-5.5) in 31-24 home win over Miami
Garoppolo threw three first-half touchdown passes, and the Patriots led 24-0 before he injured his right shoulder and left the game. The Dolphins nearly rallied all the way back, but Brissett (rookie from North Carolina State) did enough, and the Pats held on for the win and the cover. Ryan Tannehill's stats (32-for-45 for 389 yards) were padded by New England playing prevent defense and protecting its lead with a third-string quarterback in the game. When the Patriots were more aggressive, Tannehill was under constant pressure, and the Dolphins' offense looked worse than it did last week (so it wasn't just Seattle's D holding them down last week).
Week 3 (easy cover): New England (pick 'em) in 27-0 home win over Houston
Garoppolo wasn't able to go in this Thursday night game, so rookie Jacoby Brissett was pressed into action and there were plenty of bettors jumping on the Texans as the Patriots inexplicably closed pick 'em at home. It was scoreless until Stephen Gostkowski kicked a 24-yard FG with 2:07 left in the first quarter, but then the Patriots recovered a fumble on the ensuing kickoff and Brissett ran 27 yards for a touchdown on the very next play for 10 points in 13 seconds of game time and the rout was on. Reduced to play their third-string quarterback while waiting for Tom Brady to return from suspension, it appeared the Patriots were determined to show they're the best team in the league no matter who starts. Brissett was serviceable with no turnovers and the defense pitched a shutout.
Week 4 (wrong side): Buffalo ( 3.5) in 16-0 win over New England
A week after upsetting the Cardinals in one of Week 3's most shocking results, the Bills did it again by going into New England and shutting out the Patriots. It's impossible for a favorite to cover any spread if it doesn't score! Brissett made some poor decisions throwing the ball and also when scrambling, so maybe the Patriots do need Brady after all. This was also a clear under, as the total closed at 41 points and never came close.
Week 5 (easy cover): New England (-10) in 33-13 road win at Cleveland
Brady is, oh, pretty good. He threw for 406 yards and 3 TDs in his return, and even though the Browns had a few chances to get within the big 10-point spread, the Patriots were the right side. The under 47.5 was a bit of a bad beat, as the Patriots led 23-7 at halftime, and scoring slowed down in the second half. My takeaways were pretty much what we knew coming in: The Patriots look totally in control with Brady in the lineup, and the Browns are a mess ( Cody Kessler got knocked out of the game and Charlie Whitehurst was hobbled but kept playing).
Week 6 (50/50 result): New England (-7.5) in 35-17 home win over Cincinnati
A lot of people might say the Patriots easily won and covered this game, but here are the facts: The Bengals led 14-10 early in the third quarter, and the game turned on a Dont'a Hightower safety with 7:05 left in the third. Still, the Patriots were never winning by more than the spread until taking a 25-14 lead with 2:58 left in the third quarter, and the Bengals stayed within one score of covering until LeGarrette Blount's 1-yard tuchdown run with a mere 57 seconds to play (that score also put the game over the total of 48.5). My takeaway is that while the Bengals keep losing to elite teams (including the playoffs), I wouldn't be surprised to see them go 6-1 or 5-2 as they step down in class for most of their next seven games.
Week 7 (50/50 result): New England (-7.5) in 27-16 road win at Pittsburgh
The Steelers hung in with Landry Jones filling in for Ben Roethlisberger and were within 14-13 with 8:44 left in the third quarter. Of course, the Patriots responded with a 75-yard drive in just five plays to pull ahead 20-13, but Stephen Gostkowski missed the PAT to keep it under the spread. The Patriots kept pounding and got over the number on Blount's 5-yard TD run with 11:44 to play. This game confirmed for me that the Patriots do whatever it takes to win, while the Steelers showed that they should be able to handle lesser teams.
Week 8 (easy cover): New England (-6.5) in 41-25 win at Buffalo
The Bills led 3-0, but after each of their first four scores, the Patriots responded with a touchdown drive of 70-plus yards to build their lead. They were more than a TD clear of the spread with a 24-10 halftime lead and cruised from there. Belichick revenge = victory, as he hasn't been swept by an AFC team since 2001, so we just don't fade New England in these situations. The Bills are still bet-able moving forward, as they played well but just ran into a better team with revenge (and Brady back after missing the 16-0 loss in the first meeting).
Week 10 (wrong side): Seattle ( 7.5) in 31-24 win at New England
A lot of people would put this in the 50/50 category, since there were seven lead changes, but the fact is the Seahawks never trailed by more than the 7.5-point spread and still would have covered if the Patriots had scored late to force overtime. Both teams showed why they're at the top of their respective leagues (Cowboys notwithstanding), and the Patriots will recover from this loss. Seattle got a boost from running back C.J. Prosise giving them a running game and also giving Russell Wilson another option in the passing game.
Week 11 (50/50 result): New England (-11.5) in 30-17 win at San Francisco
There was never too much doubt about the Patriots winning this game, but they ended up covering the closing 11.5-point spread by just 2.5 points and didn't cover the opening line of -14 of contests that used a 13.5-point spread, and pushed in the Westgate SuperContest with a line of -13. Besides, the 49ers actually pulled within 13-10 at halftime, and it was still only 13-10 heading into the fourth quarter before the Patriots regained control with 17 unanswered points. The Patriots did pretty much what was expected of them, out-gaining the 49ers 444-299 with Brady throwing four touchdown passes.
Week 12 (wrong side): New York Jets ( 9.5) in 22-17 loss to New England
The Patriots were never winning by more than the inflated 9.5-point spread, so the Jets were clearly the right side, though their money-line backers of around 400 are probably feeling this should be in the bad beat category. The Patriots didn't take the lead for good until Brady's second TD pass to Malcolm Mitchell with 1:56 to play. New England did just enough to win and stayed atop the AFC with Oakand at 9-2. The Jets showed that with a little luck they could be better than their 3-8 record. Ryan Fitzpatrick played well in his return to the starting lineup but also lost a fumble on the Jets' final drive.
Week 13 (easy cover): New England (-13.5) in 26-10 home win over Los Angeles
It's hard to clearly be the right side when laying nearly two touchdowns, but the Patriots took an early 7-0 lead on Blount's 43-yard TD run and led 17-0 at halftime, and the Rams were never within the spread again. Los Angeles only got in the end zone with 1:15 to play. The Patriots' defense made Jared Goff look like a rookie with two interceptions, and continues to show it can complement Brady and the offense.
Week 14 (easy cover): New England (-6) in 30-23 home win over Baltimore
The Patriots barely covered after closing as 6-point home favorites, but they were clearly the right side for all but a two-minute stretch in the third quarter. They jumped out to a 16-0 lead in the second quarter and had extended the lead to 23-3 and were receiving a punt with 7 minutes left in the third quarter when it bounced off return man Cyrus Jones' foot. The Ravens scored a touchdown two plays later and then Matthew Slater fumbled the ensuing kickoff to set up another Baltimore TD to make it 23-17. The Ravens cut it to 23-20 on a Justin Tucker field goal with 6:35 to play, but Brady hit Chris Hogan with a 79-yard TD pass on the first play of the next drive to put the Patriots back up by 10. Tucker's FG with 2:03 to play put the final margin at seven and caused most books to get middled, as the line opened between New England -7.5 and -9 (so early Baltimore backers also cashed). The Patriots showed they have the most complete team (and they maintained their spot atop our NFL Vegas Rankings at ESPN Chalk), even though special teams let them down a little, but they were still able to overcome those miscues. The Ravens' defense will be fine down the stretch despite giving up 30 points (it was the Patriots, after all).
Week 15 (easy cover): New England (-3) in 16-3 road win at Denver
With the game tied 3-3 and the Broncos looking like they would go ahead by at least 6-3, New England cornerback Logan Ryan intercepted a pass by Trevor Siemian and returned it 46 yards to set up the Patriots' go-ahead touchdown, and that was the ballgame. Both teams dominated, as this was also an easy under, since it never threatened to approach the total of 44 points. The Patriots continue to show they're the most complete team.
Divisional playoffs (wrong side, covered): Houston ( 17) in 34-16 loss at New England
At the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook on Saturday night, there were dozens of Patriots backers whooping it up, saying "we had it all the way" and boasting about how favorites had covered all six NFL playoff games to that point. But the fact of the matter is this was the luckiest cover of the weekend and a bad beat for Houston backers, as the Patriots were never leading by more than the spread until Stephen Gostkowski's 43-yard field with 6:37 to play set the final score. After falling behind 7-0 and 14-3 in the first quarter, the Texans got right back in the game and trailed just 14-13 until the closing seconds of the first half, when the Patriots went up 17-13. The Texans were still covering after Brady's 19-yard touchdown pass to James White with 9:09 left in the third put the Patriots up 24-13, and the key play of the game came with just more than two minutes left in the third, when Fuller dropped a 45-yard bomb from Brock Osweiler that would have cut the New England lead to 24-20. Regardless, the Texans had to punt but got the ball back on a Brady interception to set up a Nick Novak field goal to make the score 24-16 with 14:51 to play, as the Patriots still needed two scores to cover.
Unfortunately for Houston bettors, the Pats did that with Lewis' 1-yard TD run and finally the Gostkowski field goal. The Texans certainly played better than most people expected, but with our handicapping takeaways, we're more concerned with the teams moving on, and the scary thing is that the Patriots covered such a huge spread without playing anywhere near their best game. All of the postgame talk from the Patriots was that they have to play better in the next round or they'll get eliminated, though with the Steelers advancing without scoring a touchdown, that might not be necessary.
AFC Championship Game (easy cover): New England (-5.5) in 36-17 home win over Pittsburgh
The Patriots varied from their usual strategy of deferring to the second half when they win the coin toss and took the opening drive 62 yards in six plays before having to settle for a Gostkowski 31-yard field goal. After the next three series ended in punts, the Patriots went ahead 10-0 on Brady's 16-yard TD pass to Hogan. The Steelers tried to make a game of it by driving 84 yards on their next possession to cut the lead to 10-6 on a 5-yard TD run by DeAngelo Williams (in place of an injured? Le'Veon Bell), but Chris Boswell missed the extra point. The Patriots responded right back with an 82-yard drive, capped off by another Brady-to-Hogan touchdown pass on a flea-flicker. The Steelers added a Boswell field goal before halftime, but the Patriots still led 17-9 and covered as 3.5-point first-half favorites, and it went over the first-half total of 24.5 points. The second-half line was set at pick-em (so no favorite, meaning second-half faves finished 6-2-1 ATS) with an over/under of 26.5 points. The Patriots scored 17 unanswered points in the third quarter (and that's when sports books opened them as 3-point Super Bowl favorites over the Falcons) and added a Gostkowski field goal in the fourth quarter to lead 36-9. The only thing in doubt was the over/under of 50 points (and the second-half over/under of 26.5), and both went over when Cobi Hamilton caught a 30-yard TD pass from Roethlisberger with 3:36 to play that set the final score at 36-17. Second-half over/unders are 5-5 in the playoffs. Similar to the Falcons, the Patriots played a complete game in shutting down the Steelers' powerful offense while gaining 431 yards. The Patriots had a nominal rushing attack with just 57 yards on the ground, which should lead to a wide-open aerial battle in the Super Bowl.
Related Stories
ABC News Live