Which team will rock Music City?
— --
Connecticut and Notre Dame have arrived at the Final Four as expected, both unbeaten and primed for an epic championship game that has been the talk of the sport for two months. Stanford and Maryland are trying to make sure that neither the Huskies nor the Irish becomes the eighth women's team to go undefeated.
For the third time in four years the Huskies, Irish and Cardinal are in the Final Four together. In that span, only Connecticut in 2013 came away with the title. With Notre Dame senior leader Natalie Achonwa out of the Final Four with a torn ACL, UConn goes from being the favorite to the big favorite to win its ninth national championship, breaking a tie with Tennessee for the most all-time.
Why they'll win the national title
In the regionals, Maryland did something twice it hadn't been able to do all season: beat a top-10 team. The Terps rode senior All-American Alyssa Thomas and a defense that was stingy during important stretches, if not entirely locked down, to wins over Tennessee and Louisville. Now, the formula must remain the same as potentially a pair of top-five teams await Maryland. Thomas will have to be exceptional and her surrounding youth -- such as freshmen guards Lexie Brown and Shatori Walker-Kimbrough -- can't play young.
All four coaches in this Final Four have championship rings, but other than Geno Auriemma, of course, Brenda Frese has the most recent title. It came in 2006, the last time the Terps reached the Final Four. That team had young guards who blossomed at the right time and was a dominant rebounding club. That's exactly what Frese hopes she has in Nashville once again.
Since Monday, that buzz has shifted to the devastating ACL injury to Achonwa and how Notre Dame might adjust at the most important time of the year without its on- and off-the-court leader. Achonwa isn't just a skilled post player. She is a director in Muffet McGraw's offense. Achonwa knows where everyone belongs, told her teammates what they should be doing when needed and was integral in the offense's often-brilliant execution. Achonwa is also the club's best and primary interior defender.
Without question, the Notre Dame team in Nashville won't be as good as the Irish of January, February and March. However, winning it all is still in their sights. With All-Americans Kayla McBride and Jewell Loyd, Notre Dame is supremely talented, and the emotional side of "let's win this for Natalie" is impossible to measure. Achonwa won't be on the floor, but if Notre Dame is going to win a second championship, the success will still be based on getting good shots, making those shots and outscoring two opponents. That also would have been the case with Achonwa. From that standpoint, neither the plan nor the goal has changed.
Yet the Cardinal have balance to thank for their trip to Nashville. It's what allowed Stanford to recover from an incredibly surprising loss to USC in the Pac-12 semifinals -- the first time the Cardinal failed to reach the conference tournament title game -- and a slow start in the anything-but-easy regional final victory over North Carolina. Against the Tar Heels on Tuesday, five Stanford players scored in double figures; that was just the third time that happened all season.
Ogwumike will need exactly that kind of help if the Cardinal are to climb that mountain that for the better part of the past decade has just been too high -- six Final Fours and two championship game appearances, but no titles.
No one plays the role of front-runner better than Connecticut. Not only did the Huskies arrive in Nashville with a perfect record, no opponent has come within single digits. Even with injuries and illness that temporarily sidelined Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis and Kiah Stokes -- and knocked Morgan Tuck out for the season -- UConn dominated even against the best. The Huskies have already beaten two of the other Final Four participants: Maryland and Stanford. They won at Baylor, at Duke and at Penn State. They were 6-0 against the teams that qualified for the Elite Eight.
It hasn't at all mattered that this UConn team has no depth. When four of the six players in the rotation are legitimate All-Americans, the problems of having no bench aren't quite so pronounced. UConn is the best team in Nashville, especially with Notre Dame short-handed. And if Breanna Stewart, Stefanie Dolson, Bria Hartley and Mosqueda-Lewis play to their All-American levels, it's hard to imagine anyone else celebrating on Tuesday night.
