Thunder's title odds take a hit
— -- The NBA awoke Sunday to the bad news that Oklahoma City Thunder star Kevin Durant has a Jones fracture in the fifth metatarsal in his right foot. The injury to the reigning MVP, which the Thunder said has a typical timetable of six to eight weeks, has several important ramifications for Oklahoma City and the NBA. Let's take a look at what Durant's absence might mean.
1. Durant's injury will cost the Thunder approximately 2-3 wins.
Both my SCHOENE projection system and a projection built on ESPN's real plus-minus estimate Oklahoma City's average win total dropping between two and three wins after accounting for Durant's injury. That seems like a reasonable guess, presuming Durant is able to return within six to eight weeks, which would translate to something in the range of 15 to 20 games missed.
SCHOENE projected Durant as worth nearly 19 wins above replacement player during a full, healthy season. (He was even better during his MVP campaign, posting a league-high 22.8 WARP in 2013-14, but was likely to regress somewhat.) Over 15-20 games, that's approximately four or five wins. Of course, the Thunder's replacements are better than replacement level. In particular, they may be able to extend Russell Westbrook's minutes and give more action to backup point guard Reggie Jackson at shooting guard, helping offset the loss of Durant's production.
The estimate of two or three wins is an average. Over such a short period, good or poor luck in close games could translate into Oklahoma City winning as many games as with Durant or seeing a much larger drop-off. The estimate is also contingent on Durant returning as quickly as the Thunder hope. If he misses more than two months, the Thunder could easily drop by four or five wins.
2. A couple of wins might cost Oklahoma City a spot in the standings.
Besides the possibility of Durant's injury recurring, the biggest concern for the Thunder is how his absence might affect their playoff seeding. Last season, three games separated Oklahoma City and the top-seeded San Antonio Spurs, which decided home-court advantage in the Western Conference finals. In the opposite direction, the Thunder finished just two games ahead of the L.A. Clippers for the No. 2 seed, getting home-court advantage when those teams met in the conference semifinals.
Even before Durant's injury, SCHOENE put Oklahoma City behind the Spurs and Clippers in the projected Western Conference standings because the Clippers added more during the offseason. Now the Thunder have to fear slipping all the way into the crowded second tier of West contenders.
Simulating the 2014-15 schedule can help assess the potentially large impact of Durant's injury. Using seven weeks as a benchmark for his absence, Oklahoma City's chances of claiming home-court advantage in the opening round of the playoffs drop from 82 percent to 59 percent. And even though the Thunder get credit for a healthy Durant in the playoffs, their chances of reaching the NBA Finals drop from 18.5 percent to 15.5 percent. The more time Durant misses, the bigger the impact on both of those figures.
3. Russell Westbrook will be one of the league's leading scorers.
Last season, the time Westbrook missed after knee surgery helped propel Durant to MVP. Now, Westbrook gets his opportunity to be the team's lone star -- something that has basically never happened in a meaningful situation because Durant has missed just six games during the past five seasons.
SCHOENE projects Westbrook improving his scoring rate from 23.1 points per 36 minutes with Durant to 25.7 per 36 in his absence. Add in the possibility that the Thunder could extend Westbrook's minutes to help cover for Durant's absence, and he could easily average 26-plus points per game, which would have put him among the league's top four scorers last season.
If anything, SCHOENE's projection might understate Westbrook's scoring potential. The system assumes that the extra possessions in Durant's absence are split equally. In practice, players like Serge Ibaka, Anthony Morrow and Kendrick Perkins are unlikely to ramp up their usage rates, leaving Westbrook to shoulder a much heavier load. That's what we saw last season with Durant, who used 35.6 percent of Oklahoma City's possessions in games Westbrook missed, as compared to 31.3 percent when they played together.
Indeed, in the tiny sample of four full games Westbrook has played without Durant -- not counting the 2012-13 season finale, when he played just seven minutes -- he's averaged 26.7 points, per Royce Young. SCHOENE also projects a slight bump to Westbrook's rebound rate, making triple-doubles a more realistic possibility.
4. The MVP race is either finished or wide-open.
Durant's injury basically takes the reigning MVP out of the running for this season's award. Not counting post-lockout seasons, just one MVP ( Bill Walton in 1977-78, when he played 58) has played fewer than 70 games since the schedule went to its current 82-game format. Not even the best-case scenario would get Durant back so soon.
Over the past three seasons, Durant and LeBron James have received 354 of the 367 first-place votes for MVP. Chris Paul's six first-place votes in 2011-12 are the most for any other player in that span. So Durant's injury could make James an obvious choice ... or open the door for another candidate, like Paul, Stephen Curry or even Westbrook.
