Trade grades: Clear winner in Dwight Howard deal
The deal
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Hornets get:?Center Dwight Howard, No. 31 pick in 2017 draft
Hawks get:?Guard Marco Belinelli, center Miles Plumlee, No. 41 pick in 2017 draft
Atlanta Hawks: D
That the Hawks would be interested in moving Howard less than a year after signing him makes sense. Atlanta's preseason excitement about adding more interior presence to an offense that had been perimeter-oriented with Al Horford at center proved short-lived. Howard was mostly in the way on offense, to the point that he played just 17 total?fourth-quarter minutes in the Hawks' six-game, first-round playoff loss to the Washington Wizards.
Above and beyond that, Atlanta's direction as a franchise appears to have shifted after the arrival of new GM Travis Schlenk, who recently expressed skepticism about the Hawks' chances of re-signing All-Star power forward Paul Millsap -- a departure that would almost certainly send Atlanta into a rebuilding process. At age 31, Howard doesn't fit into that.
My expectation was that the Hawks could deal Howard for something close to cap relief, as ESPN's Kevin Arnovitz suggested as a best-case scenario on Twitter after the season. Clearly, that market didn't materialize, because this trade is far worse than cap-neutral for Atlanta. Plumlee's contract, with three years and $37.5 million remaining, is among the league's worst deals.
On the plus side, the Hawks do realize modest cap savings of $3.4 million this coming season and about $11.3 million in 2018-19. But that's offset by the fact that Plumlee's contract runs a year longer than Howard's, meaning an extra $12.5 million on Atlanta's 2019-20 payroll.
In contrast to Howard's offensive issues, he remains a useful player because of his strong paint defense and rebounding. (Early in the season, he seemed more comfortable coming out high to defend the pick-and-roll. Whether due to an injury or normal wear and tear, this skill faded by the postseason and was one of the reasons Howard struggled against the Wizards.)
Based on Howard's wins above replacement player (WARP) and rating in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM), I project him as about fairly paid next season and a little overpaid in 2018-19. By contrast, Plumlee brings little on-court value. After falling out of the Milwaukee Bucks' center rotation last season before he was traded to Charlotte, I project him right around replacement level for the remainder of his contract, meaning he'll be paid in excess of $35 million more than he's worth over the next three seasons.
So since the Hawks are taking on the worse contract and the worse players, why are they also trading down in the second round?
If Atlanta was so desperate to be rid of Howard, the Hawks probably would have been better off telling him not to report next season and wait out his contract rather than make this trade. Maybe no market ever would have materialized for Howard's services, but at least his deal ended a year sooner than Plumlee's.?
Charlotte Hornets: A-
If anyone can get something special out of Howard at this stage of his career, it's probably Hornets coach Steve Clifford.
Clifford was an assistant with the Orlando Magic when Howard was at the peak of his powers -- and it's easy now to forget just how dominant Howard once was -- and Clifford's system is similar to the one in which Howard excelled for former Magic coach Stan Van Gundy.
In particular, Clifford's defense relies on dominating the defensive glass (a strength for Howard) and preventing easy baskets in the paint (that too) with a willingness to concede midrange scoring opportunities (and stopping those is Howard's biggest defensive weakness).
Charlotte struggled to execute that scheme last season when starting center Cody Zeller was off the court. When Zeller played, the Hornets' 102.7 defensive rating per NBA.com/Stats would have tied for third in the league with the Utah Jazz. When Zeller sat, that increased to 108.6, which would have ranked 24th. Adding Howard to Zeller should ensure Charlotte 48 strong minutes of defense at center.
The trick here will be whether 48 minutes are enough for Howard and Zeller. Though Zeller began his career as a power forward, he has proved to be more effective as a center, and a frontcourt pairing with both players probably wouldn't space the floor well enough to succeed offensively.
From a resource standpoint, paying two centers who probably can't play together a combined $36 million next season and $37 million in 2018-19 isn't ideal. However, the Hornets should be able to manage things financially if they're careful. None of their core players is due for a raise until the summer of 2019, when Kemba Walker's bargain contract ($12 million for each of the next two years, one of the league's best values) and Frank Kaminsky's rookie contract expire. By that point, Charlotte will actually save money with this swap of Plumlee (who would still be making $12.5 million) for Howard, whose contract expires in 2019.
Taking on a little extra salary does make things tight with the luxury tax this year. Assuming the Hornets decline Ramon Sessions' team option, they'll have about $9 million to spend on the last six spots on the roster -- including, potentially, the non-guaranteed contracts of Treveon Graham, Johnny O'Bryant and Briante Weber. Charlotte likely won't be able to spend its full non-taxpayer midlevel exception.
At the same time, Charlotte's core eight-player rotation looks strong, and moving up to No. 31 in the draft improves the Hornets' chances of being able to draft a backup for Walker who can replace Sessions right away.
Charlotte?posted a better point differential than three East playoff teams (including Atlanta) last season and went 33-29 when Zeller was healthy (3-17 without him). So the Hornets already looked like a good bet to return to the playoffs next season. Adding Howard should improve their chances substantially.?
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