Trade grades: Is Michael Carter-Williams a good get for Bulls?
The deal
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Bucks get: Forward Tony Snell
Milwaukee Bucks: C-minus
We're 20 months removed from the Bucks passing on what's likely to be a high lottery pick (from the Los Angeles Lakers, top-three-protected this season and top-one-unprotected in 2018) to acquire Carter-Williams from the Philadelphia 76ers in a three-team deal at the 2015 trade deadline that sent out Brandon Knight.
Since then, Carter-Williams' value has taken a staggering fall. Given reporting by ESPN's Marc Stein that the Sacramento Kings passed on swapping Carter-Williams for guard Ben McLemore, I'm inclined to believe this was probably the best they could get for him.
The worst thing Milwaukee could have done was stubbornly hold on to Carter-Williams because of the high price paid to add him. That's a textbook case of the sunk-cost fallacy, and there's a reason it's called a fallacy.
There's also reason to believe Snell could help the Bucks. He's shown the broad skills necessary to contribute in a 3-and-D role on the wing. A career 35.1 percent 3-point shooter, Snell has shot better than league average (36.6 percent) from beyond the arc the past two seasons.
Additionally, in Snell's limited action last season, Chicago allowed 10.4 fewer points per 100 possessions,? according to NBA.com/Stats. As a result, Snell is projected for a minus-0.9 rating in ESPN's real plus-minus this season, better than Carter-Williams' projection (minus-1.5 points per 100 possessions).
Digging deeper reveals more flaws. After shooting accurately inside the arc his first two seasons, Snell slipped to 38.0 percent last season because he struggled to finish and shot less accurately on long 2-pointers than on 3s. Snell almost never gets to the free throw line, so his true shooting percentage has been below .500 in two of his three seasons as a pro even though he's played a relatively small role in the Bulls' offense.
There's also the possibility that Snell's defensive RPM last season -- 1.86, good for sixth among all small forwards -- was a small-sample fluke. Chicago was no better defensively with him on the court in 2014-15 and allowed more points per possessions when he played as a rookie.
So there's a decent chance Snell doesn't provide an upgrade on Milwaukee's remaining wings while Khris Middleton is sidelined. In that case, all the Bucks accomplish with this deal is forcing combo guards Malcolm Brogdon and Jason Terry to play more point guard than shooting guard, a stretch at this point of their respective careers.
I can certainly see Milwaukee's logic here. With Giannis Antetokounmpo running the offense full time, Carter-Williams might have been effective only with Antetokounmpo on the bench, making it difficult to re-sign him as a restricted free agent next summer. And if Snell does put it all together during his age-25 season (he'll celebrate his birthday next month), the Bucks might have gotten better.
Still, given how thin Milwaukee is at point guard in the event Antetokounmpo or Matthew Dellavedova is injured, I probably would have been inclined to hang on to Carter-Williams. It would be hard for his value to get much lower, and a trade like this likely still would have been available in a month or two because Snell probably would have been riding the bench in Chicago anyway.
Chicago Bulls: B
The Bulls are perhaps the worst possible team for Carter-Williams. A non-shooter (he's shot 25.5 percent for his career from 3-point range) who needs the ball in his hands to be effective, Carter-Williams joins a Chicago team with three perimeter starters who are best with the ball in their hands and struggle to space the floor.
Although Carter-Williams will surely come off the bench, staggering starters and reserves means he'll likely play regularly with at least one of Jimmy Butler, Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade and often with two of them. And if you're looking ahead to 2016-17, when the Bulls can walk away from Rondo's contract with just $3 million guaranteed, remember that Carter-Williams will need a more lucrative new contract as a restricted free agent. He's also coming off hip surgery, having undergone shoulder surgery the previous offseason.
And yet, despite all that, I like this trade for Chicago from an upside perspective. After three years, the Bulls knew what they had in Snell, and that hadn't stopped them from drafting wings in Round 1 two of the past three years -- Doug McDermott and Denzel Valentine, likely to be the backup duo ahead of Snell before this trade.
Although he's a few weeks older than Snell, having recently turned 25, Carter-Williams is still more of a mystery. Point guards tend to take longer to develop, and Carter-Williams' top comparables at the same age via my SCHOENE projection system remain promising: Larry Hughes, Jrue Holiday, Jeremy Lin and Rodney Stuckey.
At best, Chicago has found a long-term solution at point guard, a hole Rondo is unlikely to fill. At worst, the Bulls can walk away next summer with nothing lost but a season of Snell as a deep reserve. That's a gamble I'd gladly take.
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