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Trade grades: Rose worth gamble for Knicks? Did Bulls get enough?
The deal
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Bulls get: Guards Jose Calderon and Jerian Grant, center Robin Lopez
Knicks get: Guard Derrick Rose, forward Justin Holiday, 2017 second-round pick
Chicago Bulls: B
Four years after Derrick Rose -- then the reigning MVP -- tore his ACL in the Bulls' opening playoff game, the time had long since come for both player and organization to get a fresh start.
Chicago kept waiting for Rose to return to form after his series of knee injuries, and he showed just enough flashes of brilliance to make that seem realistic. But overall, Rose has rated more or less at replacement level over the past three seasons -- somewhat better in 2014-15 but worse in 2015-16.
According to NBA.com, Butler used 28.6 percent of Chicago's plays with a .575 true shooting percentage without Rose in 2015-16, as compared to 22.0 percent and .553 with him. Here's the list of all the players in the league who performed better in both categories than Butler with Rose on the bench: Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, James Harden, LeBron James.
Although Rose's trade value had plummeted because of his poor play, the Bulls still figure to get more production from the salary they'll pay the players acquired in this trade than from Rose. In particular, Lopez gives Chicago a solid center, presuming incumbents Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah head elsewhere in free agency.
The three years and about $42 million remaining on Lopez's contract look eminently reasonable in the context of the rapidly rising salary cap. I'd rather have Lopez on that deal than pay a free agent like Bismack Biyombo or Ian Mahinmi what they're likely to get this summer.
The Bulls do still have more than $20 million to work with in free agency, presuming they renounce Gasol and Noah. But their real opportunity to add to the roster will come in the summer of 2017, when Chicago could have $40 million-plus to add to a core of Butler, Lopez and Nikola Mirotic. That could put the Bulls in contention for free-agent point guards like Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook.
In the meantime, Chicago can also try to rehabilitate Grant's value. The Notre Dame product was a terrible fit in New York's triangle offense as a rookie but could be more effective in an attack predicated on the pick-and-roll. Calderon also gives the Bulls a stopgap option at point
New York Knicks: D-plus
First, let's look at the positives of this deal. There's hope Rose can be somewhat more effective than his overall 2015-16 numbers would suggest. They were marred by Rose's first two months, when he was dealing with blurred vision from a preseason eye injury that also slowed his transition into coach Fred Hoiberg's system. From Jan. 1 onward, Rose's true shooting percentage was a more acceptable .508, as compared to .479 overall.
More importantly, the Knicks aren't taking much of a risk by trading for Rose, who's in the final season of his rookie extension. If Rose again deals with injuries or struggles when he's on the court, New York can simply walk away next summer, when the Knicks can have enough cap space to sign a pair of max free agents. Compared to overpaying for one of the free agents in a weak crop for point guards, I'd much rather have Rose for one year.
Of course, the price of that flexibility is what New York had to give up in this deal. The Knicks now find themselves in need of a starting center, unless they believe Kristaps Porzingis can play the position full-time. But that's probably a few years away.
And their depth chart behind Rose is basically empty after they waived Tony Wroten to complete the deal -- a problem given Rose has missed 47 games over the last two seasons.
New York will have about $26 million to spend this summer, but again that money will come out of the Knicks' 2017 cap space if the team offers multiyear deals, so Phil Jackson might again attempt to sign players to short-term contracts similar to those Arron Afflalo and Derrick Williams got last year. (Both Afflalo and Williams chose free agency over 2016-17 player options.)
There's also the question of how this all fits on the court. Not since his rookie season has Rose used less than 27 percent of his team's plays, which makes him the highest-usage teammate Carmelo Anthony has had since teaming with Allen Iverson in Denver.
It's unclear how many touches Porzingis can get playing with Rose and Anthony, and Rose doesn't tend to look for big men on the pick-and-roll. Per player-tracking data, Rose averaged 40.2 passes per 100 direct picks, less than the average of around 45 for primary pick-and-roll options.
As a result of all those questions, this gamble that Rose is going to return to stardom is not one I'd be willing to take.
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